Churchill Downs November 1, 2024 - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | Oct. 29, 2024, 12:39 p.m.

AI Algorithm Picks

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Algorithm 1 (Stronger influence on pace, track bias, trainer)

 
Race 1
Win:4 - Gardiner (4/1)
Place:6 - Blake James (7/2)
Show:5 - Righteous Star (6/1)
Other contenders:7 - Hedge (3/1), 1 - Optical (5/2)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Winakaching (5/2)
Place:6 - Dark Fury (7/2)
Show:3 - Bright Lady Day (15/1)
Other contenders:2 - Red Hot Jeanie (4/1), 4 - Creative Quality (12/1)
 
Race 3
Win:1 - Baker Hayfield (20/1)
Place:2 - Reach (15/1)
Show:3 - Sonic Skidaddle (10/1)
Other contenders:4 - Cant Stop Munnings (3/1), 5 - Mischievous Intent (4/1), 6 - Quintillion (8/1)
 
Race 4
Win:5 - Bobbie Sox (8/1)
Place:3 - Motown Mika (3/1)
Show:8 - Sparkle Of Hope (9/2)
Other contenders:4 - She'S Jersey Tuff (15/1), 2 - Slam Diego (4/1), 1 - Ella Frances (5/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Texas Tailwind (20/1)
Place:2 - Great Moment (15/1)
Show:3 - Lottery Win (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - Speed King (12/1), 5 - Faust (9/2), 6 - Caldera (8/1), 7 - Kalahari Dreams (7/2)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Time Passes (8/1)
Place:2 - Saving Heart (6/1)
Show:3 - Sinatra (6/1)
Other contenders:4 - Troubleshooting (9/2), 5 - Kraken (4/1), 6 - Perfect Force (12/1)
 
Race 7
Win:8 - Liam In The Dust (10/1)
Place:10 - Tiz Purple (12/1)
Show:5 - Lit Miss Hat Trick (30/1)
Other contenders:7 - Evanescence (5/2), 2 - Plaza Beach (20/1), 6 - Thunder Kin (30/1)
 
Race 8
Win:4 - Dominican Pioneer (5/2)
Place:12 - Liar'S Poker (20/1)
Show:10 - Higgins Boat (10/1)
Other contenders:1 - Beuys (5/1), 15 - Johny'S Fireball (10/1), 8 - Gray'S Fable (3/1), 9 - Cowboy Justice (12/1), 3 - Kitodan (12/1)
 
Race 9
Win:11 - Prints Money (5/1)
Place:5 - Sesame Streek (6/1)
Show:9 - El Gunner (9/2)
Other contenders:8 - Artwell (3/1), 4 - Tiz Marks Spirit (20/1), 13 - Rewire (20/1), 12 - Backstretch (30/1)
 
Race 10
Win:1 - Super Snoop (20/1)
Place:2 - Sock It To Me (15/1)
Show:3 - Le Chiffre (12/1)
Other contenders:4 - Game Day (12/1), 5 - Akinmusire (9/2), 6 - To Monarch (4/1), 7 - Bermuda Blitz (7/2)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 500, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

 

Algorithm 2 (Stronger influence on speed, overall pace, trainer, with moderate influence from proprietary AI)

 
Race 1
Win:4 - Gardiner (4/1)
Place:6 - Blake James (7/2)
Show:5 - Righteous Star (6/1)
Other contenders:1 - Optical (5/2), 7 - Hedge (3/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Winakaching (5/2)
Place:6 - Dark Fury (7/2)
Show:2 - Red Hot Jeanie (4/1)
Other contenders:4 - Creative Quality (12/1), 3 - Bright Lady Day (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:1 - Baker Hayfield (20/1)
Place:2 - Reach (15/1)
Show:3 - Sonic Skidaddle (10/1)
Other contenders:4 - Cant Stop Munnings (3/1), 5 - Mischievous Intent (4/1), 6 - Quintillion (8/1)
 
Race 4
Win:5 - Bobbie Sox (8/1)
Place:3 - Motown Mika (3/1)
Show:8 - Sparkle Of Hope (9/2)
Other contenders:4 - She'S Jersey Tuff (15/1), 2 - Slam Diego (4/1), 1 - Ella Frances (5/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Texas Tailwind (20/1)
Place:2 - Great Moment (15/1)
Show:3 - Lottery Win (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - Speed King (12/1), 5 - Faust (9/2), 6 - Caldera (8/1), 7 - Kalahari Dreams (7/2)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Time Passes (8/1)
Place:2 - Saving Heart (6/1)
Show:3 - Sinatra (6/1)
Other contenders:4 - Troubleshooting (9/2), 5 - Kraken (4/1), 6 - Perfect Force (12/1)
 
Race 7
Win:8 - Liam In The Dust (10/1)
Place:10 - Tiz Purple (12/1)
Show:5 - Lit Miss Hat Trick (30/1)
Other contenders:7 - Evanescence (5/2), 2 - Plaza Beach (20/1), 9 - Lady Orient (15/1)
 
Race 8
Win:4 - Dominican Pioneer (5/2)
Place:12 - Liar'S Poker (20/1)
Show:1 - Beuys (5/1)
Other contenders:10 - Higgins Boat (10/1), 8 - Gray'S Fable (3/1), 3 - Kitodan (12/1), 15 - Johny'S Fireball (10/1), 9 - Cowboy Justice (12/1)
 
Race 9
Win:11 - Prints Money (5/1)
Place:5 - Sesame Streek (6/1)
Show:9 - El Gunner (9/2)
Other contenders:8 - Artwell (3/1), 4 - Tiz Marks Spirit (20/1), 1 - Mr Mcgregor (7/2), 13 - Rewire (20/1)
 
Race 10
Win:1 - Super Snoop (20/1)
Place:2 - Sock It To Me (15/1)
Show:3 - Le Chiffre (12/1)
Other contenders:4 - Game Day (12/1), 5 - Akinmusire (9/2), 6 - To Monarch (4/1), 7 - Bermuda Blitz (7/2)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 80, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 50,

 

 

Algorithm 3 (Stronger influence on proprietary AI and overall pace)

 
Race 1
Win:4 - Gardiner (4/1)
Place:6 - Blake James (7/2)
Show:5 - Righteous Star (6/1)
Other contenders:1 - Optical (5/2), 7 - Hedge (3/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Winakaching (5/2)
Place:6 - Dark Fury (7/2)
Show:4 - Creative Quality (12/1)
Other contenders:2 - Red Hot Jeanie (4/1), 7 - Up On The Edge (9/2)
 
Race 3
Win:1 - Baker Hayfield (20/1)
Place:2 - Reach (15/1)
Show:3 - Sonic Skidaddle (10/1)
Other contenders:4 - Cant Stop Munnings (3/1), 5 - Mischievous Intent (4/1), 6 - Quintillion (8/1)
 
Race 4
Win:5 - Bobbie Sox (8/1)
Place:3 - Motown Mika (3/1)
Show:8 - Sparkle Of Hope (9/2)
Other contenders:4 - She'S Jersey Tuff (15/1), 2 - Slam Diego (4/1), 1 - Ella Frances (5/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Texas Tailwind (20/1)
Place:2 - Great Moment (15/1)
Show:3 - Lottery Win (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - Speed King (12/1), 5 - Faust (9/2), 6 - Caldera (8/1), 7 - Kalahari Dreams (7/2)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Time Passes (8/1)
Place:2 - Saving Heart (6/1)
Show:3 - Sinatra (6/1)
Other contenders:4 - Troubleshooting (9/2), 5 - Kraken (4/1), 6 - Perfect Force (12/1)
 
Race 7
Win:10 - Tiz Purple (12/1)
Place:8 - Liam In The Dust (10/1)
Show:7 - Evanescence (5/2)
Other contenders:5 - Lit Miss Hat Trick (30/1), 9 - Lady Orient (15/1), 2 - Plaza Beach (20/1)
 
Race 8
Win:4 - Dominican Pioneer (5/2)
Place:12 - Liar'S Poker (20/1)
Show:8 - Gray'S Fable (3/1)
Other contenders:10 - Higgins Boat (10/1), 1 - Beuys (5/1), 9 - Cowboy Justice (12/1), 11 - Mendelssohns March (5/1), 15 - Johny'S Fireball (10/1)
 
Race 9
Win:5 - Sesame Streek (6/1)
Place:11 - Prints Money (5/1)
Show:1 - Mr Mcgregor (7/2)
Other contenders:8 - Artwell (3/1), 9 - El Gunner (9/2), 13 - Rewire (20/1), 4 - Tiz Marks Spirit (20/1)
 
Race 10
Win:1 - Super Snoop (20/1)
Place:2 - Sock It To Me (15/1)
Show:3 - Le Chiffre (12/1)
Other contenders:4 - Game Day (12/1), 5 - Akinmusire (9/2), 6 - To Monarch (4/1), 7 - Bermuda Blitz (7/2)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 600,

 

 

Race Entries

AKINMUSIREARTWELLBACKSTRETCHBAKER HAYFIELDBERMUDA BLITZ
BLAKE JAMESBOBBIE SOXBRIGHT LADY DAYCALDERACANDY QUEST
CANT STOP MUNNINGSCLYDE'S GOT A GUNCOWBOY JUSTICECREATIVE QUALITYDARK FURY
DOMINICAN PIONEEREL GUNNERELLA FRANCESEVANESCENCEEVIE'S ENCORE
FORE FLAGFREAKY ZFULL VICTORYGALANTINIGAME DAY
GOTTA GUYGRAY'S FABLEGREAT MOMENTGUARDIANHEDGE
HOFFHOLLYGROVEHONOR POINTIDRATHERBEBLESSEDJOHNY'S FIREBALL
KILLJOYKING CURLINKITODANKRAKENLADY ORIENT
LIAM IN THE DUSTLIAR'S POKERLIT MISS HAT TRICKLOTTERY WINMAJOR DAX
MCAFEEMENDELSSOHNS MARCHMERLOTTIMISCHIEVOUS INTENTMOTOWN MIKA
MUBAREZMUHIMMAMULTIVERSEOPTICALOUR FAVORITE SON
PERFECT FORCEPLAZA BEACHPOPPA ECHOPRINTS MONEYPUTTING EAGLE
QUINTILLIONREACHREALIGNMENTRED HOT JEANIEREWIRE
RIPPEDSAVING HEARTSESAME STREEKSHE'S JERSEY TUFFSINATRA
SOCK IT TO MESONIC SKIDADDLESOUTH BEND TOMSPARKLE OF HOPESPEED KING
TAPIT SHOESTEARS IN RAINTEXAS TAILWINDTHUNDER KINTIME PASSES
TIZ PURPLETO MONARCHTROUBLESHOOTINGTWIRLING TROILLETTWO HEARTED
VIGORISHWHITE WHALEWINAKACHING