Churchill Downs May 3, 2025 - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | May 3, 2025, 1:18 p.m.

AI Algorithm Picks

Algorithm 1 (Stronger influence on pace, track bias, trainer)

Algorithm 2 (Stronger influence on speed, overall pace, trainer, with moderate influence from proprietary AI)

Algorithm 3 (Stronger influence on proprietary AI and overall pace)

Race Entries

AI Algorithm Picks

You may purchase custom Past Performance reports individually or through one of our subscription programs. Each Pick Pony Past Performance report includes customizable AI Algorithm picks that let you configure which data points most influence the algorithm. Find out more about Pick Pony's Past Performance reports.

Algorithm 1 (Stronger influence on pace, track bias, trainer)


Race 1
Win:	1 - Knicks Code (15/1)
Place:	2 - Cromwell (9/2)
Show:	3 - Fountain Lake (12/1)
Other contenders:	4 - Sturdy (6/1), 5 - Banded Humor (30/1), 6 - Kicking Clear (30/1), 7 - Money Man (30/1)

Race 2
Win:	7 - Normandy Queen (9/2)
Place:	4 - Home Game (6/1)
Show:	6 - Don'T Bring Crazy (6/1)
Other contenders:	5 - Tapit Quick (5/1), 1 - Secret Statement (12/1), 2 - Grace On Grace (20/1), 9 - Desert Rhapsody (12/1)

Race 3
Win:	8 - Yinzer (12/1)
Place:	6 - Rapture (7/2)
Show:	7 - Hypnus (6/1)
Other contenders:	2 - Bracket Buster (6/1), 10 - Strummin (30/1), 4 - Racing Driver (20/1), 1 - Vamos Carlitos (20/1)

Race 4
Win:	12 - Patriot Spirit (8/1)
Place:	3 - Accretive (6/1)
Show:	7 - Best Actor (15/1)
Other contenders:	2 - Osbourne (15/1), 6 - Kupuna (5/1), 1 - Ashcroft (20/1), 13 - New King (12/1)

Race 5
Win:	5 - Five Towns (10/1)
Place:	2 - Movin' On Up (5/1)
Show:	6 - Sacred Wish (3/1)
Other contenders:	8 - Poolside With Slim (8/1), 10 - Special Wan (5/2), 9 - Simply In Front (15/1)

Race 6
Win:	7 - Macho Music (12/1)
Place:	2 - Built (7/2)
Show:	8 - Innovator (20/1)
Other contenders:	4 - Smoken Wicked (12/1), 1 - Madaket Road (2/1), 9 - Perfect Force (12/1)

Race 7
Win:	6 - Run Carson (6/1)
Place:	5 - Arrest Me Red (6/1)
Show:	4 - One Timer (10/1)
Other contenders:	3 - Nobals (6/1), 2 - Ambivalent (12/1), 12 - Mischievous Rogue (20/1), 7 - Think Big (4/1)

Race 8
Win:	8 - Hoist The Gold (20/1)
Place:	4 - Giant Mischief (8/1)
Show:	11 - Mullikin (7/2)
Other contenders:	2 - Banishing (5/1), 6 - Extra Anejo (12/1), 10 - Nysos (4/1), 7 - Mindframe (3/1)

Race 9
Win:	4 - Mi Bago (10/1)
Place:	7 - Zulu Kingdom (4/1)
Show:	10 - Iron Man Cal (9/2)
Other contenders:	2 - Scipio (12/1), 8 - Charlie'S To Blame (8/1), 5 - Test Score (10/1), 13 - Maui Strong (30/1), 12 - Golden Afternoon (20/1)

Race 10
Win:	10 - Dorth Vader (30/1)
Place:	15 - Grand Job (10/1)
Show:	6 - Mystic Lake (8/1)
Other contenders:	8 - Ways And Means (3/1), 7 - Vahva (6/1), 9 - Emery (6/1), 1 - Scylla (4/1), 5 - Haulin Ice (15/1)

Race 11
Win:	9 - Mercante (10/1)
Place:	7 - Running Bee (5/1)
Show:	10 - Spirit Of St Louis (9/2)
Other contenders:	1 - Integration (4/1), 8 - Cameo Performance (20/1), 6 - Taking Candy (8/1), 4 - Redistricting (10/1)

Race 12
Win:	5 - American Promise (30/1)
Place:	8 - Journalism (3/1)
Show:	2 - Neoequos (30/1)
Other contenders:	20 - Owen Almighty (30/1), 21 - Baeza (12/1), 12 - East Avenue (20/1), 4 - Rodriguez (12/1), 19 - Chunk Of Gold (30/1)

Race 13
Win:	3 - Furio (10/1)
Place:	8 - Touchy (6/1)
Show:	7 - Multiverse (12/1)
Other contenders:	5 - Tiny Lake (30/1), 12 - Joejoe Go (20/1), 11 - Patch Adams (5/2), 1 - Jack'S Promise (10/1), 2 - Dapper Moon (15/1)

Race 14
Win:	13 - Lambo (5/1)
Place:	3 - Bon Temps (20/1)
Show:	10 - Excite (12/1)
Other contenders:	6 - Arthur Jr (30/1), 11 - Shallus (20/1), 1 - Into Thin Air (20/1), 5 - Advanced Spirit (5/1)

AI Weight Settings

Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 500, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

Algorithm 2 (Stronger influence on speed, overall pace, trainer, with moderate influence from proprietary AI)


Race 1
Win:	1 - Knicks Code (15/1)
Place:	2 - Cromwell (9/2)
Show:	3 - Fountain Lake (12/1)
Other contenders:	4 - Sturdy (6/1), 5 - Banded Humor (30/1), 6 - Kicking Clear (30/1), 7 - Money Man (30/1)

Race 2
Win:	7 - Normandy Queen (9/2)
Place:	4 - Home Game (6/1)
Show:	6 - Don'T Bring Crazy (6/1)
Other contenders:	8 - Lemon Muffin (5/1), 1 - Secret Statement (12/1), 5 - Tapit Quick (5/1), 9 - Desert Rhapsody (12/1)

Race 3
Win:	8 - Yinzer (12/1)
Place:	7 - Hypnus (6/1)
Show:	6 - Rapture (7/2)
Other contenders:	2 - Bracket Buster (6/1), 10 - Strummin (30/1), 1 - Vamos Carlitos (20/1), 4 - Racing Driver (20/1)

Race 4
Win:	12 - Patriot Spirit (8/1)
Place:	3 - Accretive (6/1)
Show:	7 - Best Actor (15/1)
Other contenders:	2 - Osbourne (15/1), 6 - Kupuna (5/1), 1 - Ashcroft (20/1), 13 - New King (12/1)

Race 5
Win:	5 - Five Towns (10/1)
Place:	2 - Movin' On Up (5/1)
Show:	6 - Sacred Wish (3/1)
Other contenders:	10 - Special Wan (5/2), 8 - Poolside With Slim (8/1), 9 - Simply In Front (15/1)

Race 6
Win:	7 - Macho Music (12/1)
Place:	8 - Innovator (20/1)
Show:	2 - Built (7/2)
Other contenders:	1 - Madaket Road (2/1), 4 - Smoken Wicked (12/1), 9 - Perfect Force (12/1)

Race 7
Win:	6 - Run Carson (6/1)
Place:	5 - Arrest Me Red (6/1)
Show:	4 - One Timer (10/1)
Other contenders:	2 - Ambivalent (12/1), 3 - Nobals (6/1), 12 - Mischievous Rogue (20/1), 7 - Think Big (4/1)

Race 8
Win:	2 - Banishing (5/1)
Place:	8 - Hoist The Gold (20/1)
Show:	11 - Mullikin (7/2)
Other contenders:	4 - Giant Mischief (8/1), 6 - Extra Anejo (12/1), 10 - Nysos (4/1), 7 - Mindframe (3/1)

Race 9
Win:	4 - Mi Bago (10/1)
Place:	7 - Zulu Kingdom (4/1)
Show:	5 - Test Score (10/1)
Other contenders:	10 - Iron Man Cal (9/2), 2 - Scipio (12/1), 8 - Charlie'S To Blame (8/1), 6 - Maximum Promise (20/1), 13 - Maui Strong (30/1)

Race 10
Win:	10 - Dorth Vader (30/1)
Place:	15 - Grand Job (10/1)
Show:	13 - My Mane Squeeze (12/1)
Other contenders:	6 - Mystic Lake (8/1), 8 - Ways And Means (3/1), 7 - Vahva (6/1), 9 - Emery (6/1), 1 - Scylla (4/1)

Race 11
Win:	9 - Mercante (10/1)
Place:	7 - Running Bee (5/1)
Show:	10 - Spirit Of St Louis (9/2)
Other contenders:	1 - Integration (4/1), 8 - Cameo Performance (20/1), 6 - Taking Candy (8/1), 12 - Gigante (15/1)

Race 12
Win:	5 - American Promise (30/1)
Place:	8 - Journalism (3/1)
Show:	2 - Neoequos (30/1)
Other contenders:	20 - Owen Almighty (30/1), 21 - Baeza (12/1), 12 - East Avenue (20/1), 6 - Admire Daytona (30/1), 4 - Rodriguez (12/1)

Race 13
Win:	3 - Furio (10/1)
Place:	8 - Touchy (6/1)
Show:	11 - Patch Adams (5/2)
Other contenders:	7 - Multiverse (12/1), 5 - Tiny Lake (30/1), 12 - Joejoe Go (20/1), 2 - Dapper Moon (15/1), 1 - Jack'S Promise (10/1)

Race 14
Win:	13 - Lambo (5/1)
Place:	3 - Bon Temps (20/1)
Show:	10 - Excite (12/1)
Other contenders:	6 - Arthur Jr (30/1), 11 - Shallus (20/1), 1 - Into Thin Air (20/1), 5 - Advanced Spirit (5/1)

AI Weight Settings

Speed: 50, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 80, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 50,

Algorithm 3 (Stronger influence on proprietary AI and overall pace)


Race 1
Win:	1 - Knicks Code (15/1)
Place:	2 - Cromwell (9/2)
Show:	3 - Fountain Lake (12/1)
Other contenders:	4 - Sturdy (6/1), 5 - Banded Humor (30/1), 6 - Kicking Clear (30/1), 7 - Money Man (30/1)

Race 2
Win:	7 - Normandy Queen (9/2)
Place:	4 - Home Game (6/1)
Show:	6 - Don'T Bring Crazy (6/1)
Other contenders:	1 - Secret Statement (12/1), 8 - Lemon Muffin (5/1), 9 - Desert Rhapsody (12/1), 5 - Tapit Quick (5/1)

Race 3
Win:	8 - Yinzer (12/1)
Place:	6 - Rapture (7/2)
Show:	7 - Hypnus (6/1)
Other contenders:	2 - Bracket Buster (6/1), 11 - Sorcerer'S Silver (8/1), 4 - Racing Driver (20/1), 9 - Tiz Secure (5/1)

Race 4
Win:	12 - Patriot Spirit (8/1)
Place:	7 - Best Actor (15/1)
Show:	3 - Accretive (6/1)
Other contenders:	6 - Kupuna (5/1), 2 - Osbourne (15/1), 13 - New King (12/1), 10 - Implementation (6/1)

Race 5
Win:	5 - Five Towns (10/1)
Place:	10 - Special Wan (5/2)
Show:	8 - Poolside With Slim (8/1)
Other contenders:	6 - Sacred Wish (3/1), 4 - Serene Seraph (20/1), 2 - Movin' On Up (5/1)

Race 6
Win:	7 - Macho Music (12/1)
Place:	8 - Innovator (20/1)
Show:	1 - Madaket Road (2/1)
Other contenders:	4 - Smoken Wicked (12/1), 2 - Built (7/2), 5 - Gate To Wire (6/1)

Race 7
Win:	6 - Run Carson (6/1)
Place:	4 - One Timer (10/1)
Show:	3 - Nobals (6/1)
Other contenders:	5 - Arrest Me Red (6/1), 2 - Ambivalent (12/1), 12 - Mischievous Rogue (20/1), 1 - Coppola (10/1)

Race 8
Win:	8 - Hoist The Gold (20/1)
Place:	11 - Mullikin (7/2)
Show:	4 - Giant Mischief (8/1)
Other contenders:	10 - Nysos (4/1), 7 - Mindframe (3/1), 2 - Banishing (5/1), 6 - Extra Anejo (12/1)

Race 9
Win:	4 - Mi Bago (10/1)
Place:	3 - New Century (3/1)
Show:	7 - Zulu Kingdom (4/1)
Other contenders:	10 - Iron Man Cal (9/2), 8 - Charlie'S To Blame (8/1), 12 - Golden Afternoon (20/1), 2 - Scipio (12/1), 5 - Test Score (10/1)

Race 10
Win:	10 - Dorth Vader (30/1)
Place:	15 - Grand Job (10/1)
Show:	7 - Vahva (6/1)
Other contenders:	6 - Mystic Lake (8/1), 8 - Ways And Means (3/1), 9 - Emery (6/1), 5 - Haulin Ice (15/1), 1 - Scylla (4/1)

Race 11
Win:	7 - Running Bee (5/1)
Place:	10 - Spirit Of St Louis (9/2)
Show:	9 - Mercante (10/1)
Other contenders:	1 - Integration (4/1), 8 - Cameo Performance (20/1), 6 - Taking Candy (8/1), 4 - Redistricting (10/1)

Race 12
Win:	5 - American Promise (30/1)
Place:	2 - Neoequos (30/1)
Show:	8 - Journalism (3/1)
Other contenders:	20 - Owen Almighty (30/1), 12 - East Avenue (20/1), 21 - Baeza (12/1), 4 - Rodriguez (12/1), 19 - Chunk Of Gold (30/1)

Race 13
Win:	3 - Furio (10/1)
Place:	8 - Touchy (6/1)
Show:	11 - Patch Adams (5/2)
Other contenders:	12 - Joejoe Go (20/1), 7 - Multiverse (12/1), 5 - Tiny Lake (30/1), 2 - Dapper Moon (15/1), 9 - Romanesque (5/1)

Race 14
Win:	13 - Lambo (5/1)
Place:	3 - Bon Temps (20/1)
Show:	10 - Excite (12/1)
Other contenders:	6 - Arthur Jr (30/1), 11 - Shallus (20/1), 1 - Into Thin Air (20/1), 5 - Advanced Spirit (5/1)

AI Weight Settings

Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 600,

Race Entries

A. P. KID	ACCRETIVE	ADMIRE DAYTONA	ADVANCED SPIRIT	AMBIVALENT
ARREST ME RED	ARTHUR JR	ASHCROFT	AWESOME TREAT	BAEZA
BANISHING	BARBRATINA	BENEDETTA	BEST ACTOR	BIG TRUZZ
BON TEMPS	BOOK'EM DANNO	BOSS SULLY	BOURBON SOCIETY	BRACKET BUSTER
BUILT	BURNHAM SQUARE	CALIFORNIA BURRITO	CAMEO PERFORMANCE	CASTLE CHAOS
CHILLAX	CHIRON	CHUNK OF GOLD	CITIZEN BULL	CLASSIC OF COURSE
COAL BATTLE	COFFEE TALK	COPPOLA	CROMWELL	DAPPER MOON
DESERT RHAPSODY	DISCREET DANCER	DON'T BRING CRAZY	DORTH VADER	EAMONN
EMERY	EXCITE	EXTRA ANEJO	FINAL GAMBIT	FIVE TOWNS
FOUNTAIN LAKE	FULLY VOLATILE	FURIO	GAMING	GATE TO WIRE
GIANT MISCHIEF	GIGANTE	GIOCOSO	GOAL ORIENTED	GOLD PHOENIX
GRACE ON GRACE	GRAND JOB	GRANDE	HAMMERHEAD	HARBE
HAUNTED FLAME	HERE MI SONG	HIGHWAY ROBBER	HOIST THE GOLD	HOME GAME
HYPNUS	IDRATHERBEBLESSED	IMPLEMENTATION	INNOVATOR	INTEGRATION
INVEIGLED	IRON MAN CAL	IZZY'S MONSTER	JACK'S PROMISE	JOEJOE GO
JUST STEEL	KEEN CAT	KICKING CLEAR	KNICKS CODE	KNICKS GATE
KUPUNA	LAMBO	LEMON MUFFIN	LIBERAL ARTS	LUXOR CAFE
MADAKET ROAD	MAINSTREAM	MAUI STRONG	MAXIMUM PROMISE	MEGALODON
MI BAGO	MINDFRAME	MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE	MISS SUSAN B	MONEY MAN
MULLIKIN	MULTIVERSE	MY MANE SQUEEZE	MYSTIC LAKE	NEOEQUOS
NEW KING	NOBALS	NORMANDY QUEEN	NYSOS	ONE TIMER
OSBOURNE	OWEN ALMIGHTY	PATCH ADAMS	PATRIOT SPIRIT	PEDIATRICIAN
PIN UP BETTY	POOLSIDE WITH SLIM	POSITANO SUNSET	PUBLISHER	PURSUITNEVERSLEEPS
RACING DRIVER	RAPTURE	REDISTRICTING	RENDER JUDGMENT	RODRIGUEZ
ROMANESQUE	RUN CARSON	RUNNING BEE	SACRED WISH	SANDMAN
SCIPIO	SCYLLA	SECRET STATEMENT	SEND COINS	SERENE SERAPH
SHAN	SIMPLY IN FRONT	SMOKEN WICKED	SORCERER'S SILVER	SOVEREIGNTY
SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS	SPIRIT RAGS	STRUMMIN	STURDY	TAKING CANDY
TAX IMPLICATIONS	TAXED	TEJANO TWIST	TERRAPIN STATION	TEST SCORE
TINY LAKE	TIZ SECURE	TIZTASTIC	TOUCHY	UNCONQUERABLE KEEN
VALENTINIAN	VAMOS CARLITOS	VENENCIA	WARLANDER	WAYS AND MEANS
ZULU KINGDOM