Oaklawn Park January 4, 2025 - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | Jan. 2, 2025, 9:15 p.m.

AI Algorithm Picks

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Algorithm 1 (Stronger influence on pace, track bias, trainer)

 
Race 1
Win:2 - The Warden (6/5)
Place:7 - High Limit (10/1)
Show:9 - Bye Bye Miles (10/1)
Other contenders:6 - Lord Baranof (12/1), 3 - Crisis Manager (4/1), 8 - Primo Canary (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Espionage (6/1)
Place:3 - Alto Road (9/2)
Show:9 - Knicks Story (5/2)
Other contenders:5 - Martini Blu (7/2), 7 - Raymond (8/1), 14 - Worth Looking (15/1), 8 - Deflater (30/1)
 
Race 3
Win:6 - Double Ride (10/1)
Place:5 - Bermuda Blitz (7/2)
Show:3 - Waco (6/1)
Other contenders:1 - Mintastic (12/1), 7 - Chasin' Chaffin (30/1), 4 - Tip Toe Joe (20/1), 2 - Momissioner (8/1)
 
Race 4
Win:6 - Briterdayzahead (3/1)
Place:8 - Samurai Prince (15/1)
Show:12 - Got Thunder (9/2)
Other contenders:2 - Higher Standard (15/1), 5 - Dazzlemesilver (12/1), 3 - Ben Diesel (20/1), 4 - Payne (4/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Two Dollar Eddie (5/1)
Place:8 - Burlsworth (3/1)
Show:7 - God'S Country (4/1)
Other contenders:11 - Baby Nova (30/1), 10 - Get Away With It (6/1), 13 - Crue'S N Control (20/1), 12 - Mr. Butch (6/1)
 
Race 6
Win:13 - Toddchero (8/1)
Place:10 - Goldbrick (9/2)
Show:6 - Big City (5/2)
Other contenders:7 - Bourbon'S Fault (15/1), 3 - One Giant Leap (5/1), 9 - Anthonian (10/1), 8 - Lat Long (3/1)
 
Race 7
Win:5 - Clapping Trees (15/1)
Place:4 - Helen'S Revenge (15/1)
Show:3 - Piggy Tales Up (20/1)
Other contenders:6 - Battleshipper (8/1), 7 - Shisospicy (4/5), 9 - Chatter (9/2)
 
Race 8
Win:11 - Lundberg (20/1)
Place:10 - Willie Bird (6/1)
Show:1 - Attache (5/2)
Other contenders:9 - Juilliard (12/1), 8 - Goodasiwonswas (7/2), 14 - Run Jalen Run (15/1), 4 - Ravin'S Town (30/1)
 
Race 9
Win:1 - Kale'S Angel (2/1)
Place:8 - Coal Battle (9/2)
Show:7 - Curvino (12/1)
Other contenders:2 - Hot Gunner (20/1), 3 - Optical (12/1), 5 - Mo Quality (5/1)
 
Race 10
Win:12 - Sir Greylind (4/1)
Place:4 - Dance Some Mo (7/2)
Show:9 - Linebacker (15/1)
Other contenders:13 - Bedard (6/1), 11 - Lambeth (3/1), 7 - Hoodlum (12/1), 2 - King Russell (6/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 500, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

 

Algorithm 2 (Stronger influence on speed, overall pace, trainer, with moderate influence from proprietary AI)

 
Race 1
Win:2 - The Warden (6/5)
Place:7 - High Limit (10/1)
Show:3 - Crisis Manager (4/1)
Other contenders:6 - Lord Baranof (12/1), 9 - Bye Bye Miles (10/1), 8 - Primo Canary (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win:3 - Alto Road (9/2)
Place:9 - Knicks Story (5/2)
Show:1 - Espionage (6/1)
Other contenders:5 - Martini Blu (7/2), 7 - Raymond (8/1), 14 - Worth Looking (15/1), 10 - Derby Date (12/1)
 
Race 3
Win:5 - Bermuda Blitz (7/2)
Place:6 - Double Ride (10/1)
Show:3 - Waco (6/1)
Other contenders:1 - Mintastic (12/1), 7 - Chasin' Chaffin (30/1), 4 - Tip Toe Joe (20/1), 12 - Miracle On Central (8/1)
 
Race 4
Win:6 - Briterdayzahead (3/1)
Place:12 - Got Thunder (9/2)
Show:8 - Samurai Prince (15/1)
Other contenders:3 - Ben Diesel (20/1), 2 - Higher Standard (15/1), 5 - Dazzlemesilver (12/1), 4 - Payne (4/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Two Dollar Eddie (5/1)
Place:8 - Burlsworth (3/1)
Show:7 - God'S Country (4/1)
Other contenders:10 - Get Away With It (6/1), 11 - Baby Nova (30/1), 13 - Crue'S N Control (20/1), 12 - Mr. Butch (6/1)
 
Race 6
Win:13 - Toddchero (8/1)
Place:10 - Goldbrick (9/2)
Show:7 - Bourbon'S Fault (15/1)
Other contenders:6 - Big City (5/2), 3 - One Giant Leap (5/1), 8 - Lat Long (3/1), 9 - Anthonian (10/1)
 
Race 7
Win:5 - Clapping Trees (15/1)
Place:4 - Helen'S Revenge (15/1)
Show:3 - Piggy Tales Up (20/1)
Other contenders:6 - Battleshipper (8/1), 7 - Shisospicy (4/5), 9 - Chatter (9/2)
 
Race 8
Win:11 - Lundberg (20/1)
Place:10 - Willie Bird (6/1)
Show:1 - Attache (5/2)
Other contenders:6 - Gunflash (4/1), 9 - Juilliard (12/1), 14 - Run Jalen Run (15/1), 8 - Goodasiwonswas (7/2)
 
Race 9
Win:1 - Kale'S Angel (2/1)
Place:8 - Coal Battle (9/2)
Show:7 - Curvino (12/1)
Other contenders:2 - Hot Gunner (20/1), 3 - Optical (12/1), 5 - Mo Quality (5/1)
 
Race 10
Win:12 - Sir Greylind (4/1)
Place:4 - Dance Some Mo (7/2)
Show:9 - Linebacker (15/1)
Other contenders:13 - Bedard (6/1), 11 - Lambeth (3/1), 7 - Hoodlum (12/1), 2 - King Russell (6/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 80, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 50,

 

 

Algorithm 3 (Stronger influence on proprietary AI and overall pace)

 
Race 1
Win:2 - The Warden (6/5)
Place:7 - High Limit (10/1)
Show:6 - Lord Baranof (12/1)
Other contenders:3 - Crisis Manager (4/1), 9 - Bye Bye Miles (10/1), 8 - Primo Canary (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Espionage (6/1)
Place:7 - Raymond (8/1)
Show:5 - Martini Blu (7/2)
Other contenders:3 - Alto Road (9/2), 9 - Knicks Story (5/2), 10 - Derby Date (12/1), 14 - Worth Looking (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:5 - Bermuda Blitz (7/2)
Place:6 - Double Ride (10/1)
Show:3 - Waco (6/1)
Other contenders:1 - Mintastic (12/1), 7 - Chasin' Chaffin (30/1), 4 - Tip Toe Joe (20/1), 12 - Miracle On Central (8/1)
 
Race 4
Win:6 - Briterdayzahead (3/1)
Place:12 - Got Thunder (9/2)
Show:8 - Samurai Prince (15/1)
Other contenders:2 - Higher Standard (15/1), 3 - Ben Diesel (20/1), 5 - Dazzlemesilver (12/1), 1 - Synthesis (8/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Two Dollar Eddie (5/1)
Place:8 - Burlsworth (3/1)
Show:7 - God'S Country (4/1)
Other contenders:11 - Baby Nova (30/1), 10 - Get Away With It (6/1), 13 - Crue'S N Control (20/1), 12 - Mr. Butch (6/1)
 
Race 6
Win:13 - Toddchero (8/1)
Place:6 - Big City (5/2)
Show:10 - Goldbrick (9/2)
Other contenders:7 - Bourbon'S Fault (15/1), 8 - Lat Long (3/1), 3 - One Giant Leap (5/1), 9 - Anthonian (10/1)
 
Race 7
Win:5 - Clapping Trees (15/1)
Place:7 - Shisospicy (4/5)
Show:4 - Helen'S Revenge (15/1)
Other contenders:3 - Piggy Tales Up (20/1), 6 - Battleshipper (8/1), 2 - G W'S Girl (6/1)
 
Race 8
Win:11 - Lundberg (20/1)
Place:10 - Willie Bird (6/1)
Show:1 - Attache (5/2)
Other contenders:9 - Juilliard (12/1), 14 - Run Jalen Run (15/1), 4 - Ravin'S Town (30/1), 3 - Here Comes Braylon (30/1)
 
Race 9
Win:1 - Kale'S Angel (2/1)
Place:8 - Coal Battle (9/2)
Show:7 - Curvino (12/1)
Other contenders:2 - Hot Gunner (20/1), 5 - Mo Quality (5/1), 3 - Optical (12/1)
 
Race 10
Win:12 - Sir Greylind (4/1)
Place:4 - Dance Some Mo (7/2)
Show:9 - Linebacker (15/1)
Other contenders:7 - Hoodlum (12/1), 11 - Lambeth (3/1), 5 - Get A Job (12/1), 13 - Bedard (6/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 600,

 

 

Race Entries

AFLEET SKYALTO ROADAMERICAN LAWANTHONIANATTACHE
BABY NOVABATTLESHIPPERBEDARDBEN DIESELBERMUDA BLITZ
BON TEMPSBOURBON AFICIONADOBOURBON'S FAULTBRITERDAYZAHEADBURLSWORTH
CALIFORNIA TIGERCAPTAIN JACKCHARLESTONCHASIN' CHAFFINCHATTER
CLAPPING TREESCOAL BATTLECRISIS MANAGERCRUE'S N CONTROLCURVINO
DAILY GRINDDANCE SOME MODAZZLEMESILVERDEFLATERDERBY DATE
DOUBLE RIDEDREWMANIAESPIONAGEFLASH MASTERFREE AGAIN
GET A JOBGET AWAY WITH ITGETOUTYOURWALLETGEWURZTRAMINERGOD'S COUNTRY
GOODASIWONSWASGOT THUNDERGREAT RICHIE MGUNFLASHHAILSTORM
HELLO HOT RODHERE COMES BRAYLONHIGH LIMITHIGHER STANDARDHOODLUM
HOT PROPERTYHYPNUSJIMMYJUILLIARDKALE'S ANGEL
KNICKS STORYLADY CRUSHLAMBETHLARRY'S LEGENDLAT LONG
LORD BARANOFLUCENCYLUNDBERGMAN ON THE MOONMANTA REY
MAX GOT EXCITEDMIDNIGHT PRANKSMILLERS RITEMINTASTICMIRACLE ON CENTRAL
MOMISSIONERMONTANA CAFEMR. BUTCHONE GIANT LEAPOPTICAL
PAYNEPAYNTER'S CANVASPIGGY TALES UPPRIMO CANARYRACHEL'S CAPER
RAVIN'S TOWNRAYMONDRUN JALEN RUNSAMURAI PRINCESHISOSPICY
SIR GREYLINDSTAND PROUDSUSHI MANSYNTHESISTHE WARDEN
TODDCHEROTWO DOLLAR EDDIEVINEYWACOWILLIE BIRD
WITHOUT OBJECTIONWORK BOOTSWORTH LOOKINGZATARAZOOM

 Race news

Lightly raced Mo Quality will try to give Davis his first career Oaklawn victory in Saturday’s $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes for 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles. The Smarty Jones will award 21 total points (10-5-3-2-1, respectively) to the top five finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby. It is Oaklawn’s first of four Kentucky Derby qualifying races.

Probable post time for the Smarty Jones, the ninth of 10 races, is 4:22 p.m. CST. Racing begins at 12:30 p.m. CST.

Davis has started seven horses at Oaklawn (all in allowance or stakes company) since he began training in 2016. His best finish is a trio of thirds by Moonlit Garden, one coming in the $200,000 Bayakoa Stakes (G3) for older fillies and mares in 2019. Davis also ran sixth in the $125,000 King Cotton Stakes for older sprinters in 2020 at Oaklawn with Tringale.

“It’s hard to win stakes races,” Davis said with a laugh. “If I shipped some claimers in there, it might be a little bit easier. When you’re coming to Oaklawn and you’re running against stakes-caliber horses – Brad (Cox) is always going to have something, Steve (Asmussen), Kenny (McPeek) – those top guys (trainers) are always going to have something in there that’s really good. We’re trying to get our first win at that track the hard way, I guess. But we’re always competitive, it seems like, with the horse that we bring there. Hopefully, this one will be no different.”

Owned by Walmac Farm (Gary Broad), Mo Quality will be making his stakes and two-turn debut in the Smarty Jones, which drew a field of eight. The Smarty Jones will be Mo Quality’s third lifetime start.

Mo Quality (5-1 on the morning line) didn’t break sharp in his Oct. 23 debut at Keeneland and was last of 11 early before rallying to finish second. Resurfacing a month later at Churchill Downs, Mo Quality broke his maiden by 1 ½ lengths after racing much closer to the early pace. Both races were 6 ½ furlongs.

Davis said he’s optimistic Mo Quality can be equally effective around two turns. His sire, Mo Town, was a Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt at 2 (2016 Remsen) and a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/8 miles on the grass at 3 (2017 Hollywood Derby).

“We wanted to stretch him right after that race,” Davis said, referring to Mo Quality’s maiden victory. “That was kind of the goal. A horse that goes 6 ½ twice, and his gallop outs and his size, just his efficiency with his action, stride length, everything about him says he wants to go two turns. He’s just nice enough to sprint, so it’s a good steppingstone. There’s a reason why I ran him 6 ½ twice, instead of going three-quarters or 5 ½ with him. He’s just a horse that the farther he goes, seems like he just gets better.”

Davis said he chose the Smarty Jones because it offers a hefty purse and Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Mo Quality was also nominated to the one-mile $165,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Mo Quality is based at Turfway Park in northern Kentucky.

“I want to see how he goes two turns and then how he handles Oaklawn,” Davis said. “Horses that typically handle Churchill handle Oaklawn very well. It’s going to be the big test going two turns. I have horses in south Florida. I could have gone to the Mucho Macho Man and gone that route, but he’s training at Turfway. He’s acclimated to the cold weather very well. I’d like to kind of keep him in the cooler temperatures before kind of giving him a culture shock, going from 30 degrees to 90.”

The Smarty Jones field from the rail out: Kale’s Angel, Ramon Vazquez to ride, 119 pounds, 2-1 on the morning line; Hot Gunner, Harry Hernandez, 117, 20-1; Optical, Axel Concepcion, 117, 12-1; Bon Temps, Martin Garcia, 117, 30-1; Mo Quality, Junior Alvarado, 117, 5-1; Hot Property, Flavien Prat, 117, 8-5; Curvino, Francisco Arrieta, 117, 12-1; and Coal Battle, Juan Vargas, 122, 9-2.

Unbeaten Hot Property (1 for 1) will try to give Cox his fourth Smarty Jones victory in the last five years. Hot Property, at 1 1/16 miles, was a front-running 3 ¾-length winner of his Nov. 24 debut at Fair Grounds.

Coal Battle exits a half-length victory in the $300,000 Remington Springboard Mile Stakes Dec. 13 at Remington Park for trainer Lonnie Briley. Kale’s Angel won the $150,000 Advent Stakes at 5 ½ furlongs Dec. 6 at Oaklawn for trainer Peter Miller.

Bon Temps, a supplemental nominee, is a two-race maiden for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

Mystik Dan ran fifth in the 2024 Smarty Jones Stakes before going on to win the Southwest Stakes (G3) and Kentucky Derby.