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Pick Pony | May 31, 2024, 7:44 p.m.
The Blame Stakes is a Grade III American Thoroughbred horse race for four-year-olds and older over a distance of 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. It is scheduled annually in late May or early June at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky and currently offers a purse of $275,000.
The event is named after Blame, the 2006 U.S. Champion Older Male Horse who won the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. In February 2020, Churchill Downs announced that a race named in Blame’s honor would be run beginning in May 2020 - The Blame Stakes, a prep race for the $500,000 Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) on June 27 at Churchill Downs.
The Blame Stakes was first held on May 23, 2020, and covered a distance of one mile. The race was won by Owendale, owned by Rupp Racing. Owendale, starting as the second favorite with odds of 7/2, was ridden by jockey Florent Geroux. He settled at the back from the gate, took the seven path into the lane, rallied down the stretch while widest, and edged past three wide in the final stages to win by half a length over longshot Everfast in a time of 1:34.74.
In 2021, the race distance was increased to 1+1⁄8 miles. In 2023, the event was upgraded to a Grade III by the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association.
The 2024 Blame Stakes promises to be a race for the ages with several horses with flash speed going head to head. This race will have a very fast pace. Deeper closing styles should fare well.
Frosted Departure is another sluggish runner with one of the lowest speed ratings in this race. Pace ratings are trending flat, speed is trending up in an erratic pattern. About the only good thing going for him is a .03 Trainer/Jockey ROI ($736k lifetime earnings) - and those wins in his last two races.
Frosted Departure turned in his best speed ratings in his last two races - a win in the Lake Ouachita Stakes at Oaklawn Park and at Keeneland in April. Both races featured a similar level of competition as this year’s Blame Stakes. So why the sudden improvement? Maturity? Something in the water? Or that need to take the early lead and stave off strong closers? Certainly the inside lane will help in that regard and the Blame’s race shape looks favorable for Frosted Departure too.
Kenneth McPeak is doing something right. Maybe not quite enough to make the tote board but enough to call Frosted Departure a contender.
The favorite, Highland Falls, began his career on the closing day of the 2023 Ellis Park season with a 9-1 debut victory in a maiden special weight contest. Since then, the son of Curlin has won allowance contests at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds before testing stakes company for the first time in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), where he finished fourth to Newgate. His 104 Beyer Speed Figure was a career-best and is higher than any figure in the Blame. Trainer Brad Cox said:
“We think very highly of this colt and hope he can establish himself as one of the top older horses in the country. I thought he ran well in the Santa Anita Handicap where the pace didn’t really shape up all that fast. I thought in the Oaklawn Handicap he ran a credible race and improved out of the Santa Anita Handicap. We’re looking forward to Saturday’s race and hoping it kickstarts a big campaign for him.”
And as if things couldn’t get any better, his speed is trending up sharply as are all pace figures. Despite AI’s prediction of a slight spike downward in this race, we’re giving the win to Highland Falls..
War Campaign in another speed demon in this party, likely in the top three, and he has the second highest speed number at this distance. However, his speed is trending nearly flat, likely due to a decreasing late pace. But get this - War Campaign is 3-0-3 at Churchill Downs and Philip Sims is 2-0 in-the-money at graded stakes. Does that make your eyes water? It should.
War Campaign will probably slot up right behind Frosted Departure and press him hard. He’s proven he can handle this class of race - and better. If he’s “on” in this race, he’ll win. If not, he’ll still make the podium, likely Place or Show.
Uncle Jake comes in with about the same class rating as Dreamlike and Trademark, and just slightly higher than Five Star General. He’s one of the slowest horses in this race, despite the upward-trending speed rating. He can win races at this distance but only against a lesser-quality field of competitors. A run like we saw at Keeneland in April could land him on the board but that was a one-off event. Toss.
Tapit Trice, as a 3-year-old, achieved a 100 Beyer mark by finishing third in the Belmont and the Travers races. However, the colt lost four races in a row after winning the Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade 1 Blue Grass, raising questions about his performance in his delayed 4-year-old debut.
Injuries may have played a part. Tapit Trice was set to compete in the Alysheba Stakes earlier this month but reportedly had to withdraw due to a foot issue caused by shedding a frog. Trainer Todd Pletcher claimed, however, that the extended layoff was not due to a specific injury but rather a decision to give the colt a freshening period and prepare for his 4-year-old season.
In his upcoming race, Tapit Trice will be wearing blinkers for the second time, although Pletcher does not expect this equipment change to result in a significant alteration in the colt's performance, based on his previous experience in the Travers.
“He’s been training well, and his works all have been good. It’s a tall task, a mile and an eighth off this kind of layoff, but he’s a true route horse, and we need to get a race into him hopefully to move forward into the Stephen Foster.”
Tapit Trice is likely the fastest horse in this group but his nearly one-year layoff is a justifiable concern. Prior to the layoff, his speed had been trending higher although it had begun to waver in the last few races. E1/E2 pace are trending higher but LP is plumetting. Poor works add to the concern. We’re going to give him the benefit of a doubt and put him in the money - but just barely. Certainly don’t throw any change into the pool unless there’s an overlay.
Todd Pletcher’s other entrant, Dreamlike is about the same class as Uncle Jake and Trademark, and only slighly higher than Five Star General. His speed is almost as good as Tapit Trice although he faltered in his last time out. Still, he has the highest speed figure at this distance, despite a Beyer that is flattening.Pletcher explained,
“Dreamlike can be a little inconsistent. He’s out of a Tapit mare, and I’ve found some of them to be ADD sorts. He was very studdish as a 2-year-old and still a bit at 3, but I think he has matured at 4. With some solid works in him and the race under his belt, he should be in a position to move forward.”
Will Irad Ortiz in the irons be enough to turn him around? I mean, a Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz dynamic duo is hard to bet against - but that’s just what we’re going to do. Dreamlike needs a few more races under his belt before we put him in the money. Look for him to barely miss the tote board.
Classic Causeway’s speed numbers are falling off a cliff with no signs of improvement. His last races were disasters against a much lower class of competitors. He’s even been beaten by Five Star General, Uncle Jake, and Last Samurai. Toss.
Last Samurai’s speed rating is trending downward at an accelerating rate and this 6-year-old colt is losing races to much slower competitors than he’ll see in this race. However, a return to form we saw in 2023 could put him in the money. There’s just no sign of that happening anytime soon. Toss
Cagliostro made his first start since September and won by a head at Keeneland while wearing blinkers for the first time. After the race, trainer Cherie DeVaux waited for over three weeks before working Cagliostro again, allowing him enough time to recover. Following his last race, Cagliostro was sold to Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani’s Wathnan Racing. Cherie DeVaux said:
“He’s bounced back now. He had one of his best works this past week in company with Vahva. He should have a forward move in his wheelhouse.”
He’s shown a consistently improving speed rating over the past ten races and has plenty of in-the-money finsihes on his resume but is likely outclassed by this group. We think he’ll finish slightly higher than the middle of the pack.
Five Star General’s speed is barely trending upward and AI is predicting a downward spike in this race. However, his early pace is phenomenal - not enough to put him in the money, but plenty fast enough to set the pace. He could make the race exciting but not enough to tempt us to throw money at him. Toss
Trademark isn’t getting much press and that’s too bad because this five-year-old gelding is in the same class as Uncle Jake, Dreamlike, and Five Star General. However, his speed has been crashing lately. Toss