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Pick Pony | Oct. 30, 2024, 1:12 p.m.
Oh, what a tangled web we weave. The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the coup d’etat for G1 thoroughbred racehorse contenders. But what a complex race it is to rank. So we’ll let Pick Pony’s AI rank it instead.
Below, we feature the rankings from Pick Pony’s “Algorithm 3” Artificial Intelligence estimate. The complete rankings and rank analysis are available here.
Arthur's Ride, no. 12, 15-1. The Grade 1 Whitney Stakes winner was a top Classic contender with back-to-back Beyer Speed Figures of 111 and 110. However, after a disappointing performance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), he is now seen as an underdog. With a two-month recovery, trainer Bill Mott would only enter him if he is in form. He’s expected to lead on a speed-favoring track, while City of Troy and Next lack the early speed to challenge him; Fierceness will likely be held back for a strong distance run. His early and mid pace are rising as are all of his feet-per-second calculations (early, mid, and late). Speed is trending up, and AI predicts a bounce upward in this race. 15-1 odds are looking pretty good…
Tapit Trice, no. 10, 30-1. He has improved significantly as a 4-year-old with blinkers and greater maturity. He outperformed Jockey Club Gold Cup champion Highland Falls and his victory in the Woodward Stakes (G2) was impressive. Skippylongstocking, a solid 4-1 contender for the Dirt Mile, took a clear lead in the stretch after pacing slow fractions. However, this colt caught up and surpassed him. He’s at his best now, and with Irad Ortiz Jr. and Todd Pletcher (easily the top trainer in this group) at 30-1, this might be the underlay of the race.
Fierceness, no. 9, 3-1. Fierceness could win this race under the right circumstances. His maturity in the Travers Stakes (G1) was impressive, but this is a tougher test. He won at this distance before, but the price will likely be too low to justify dropping coin on him.
Highland Falls, no. 2, 20-1. Curlin’s son is in top form and excelled in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at this distance. He seems to be peaking, too, although AI is predicting a downward trend in this race.
Mixto, no. 4, 30-1. There must have been, ahem, something in the water because he unexpectedly won the Pacific Classic (G1) after losing previously at Pleasanton. His performance was nothing short of stunning. Can he repeat that performance? Likely not enough to win, but good enough to keep an eye on.
Sierra Leone, no. 11, 12-1. He seemed the horse to beat in nearly every race since his impressive Blue Grass Stakes (G1) win in April, but he’s become a bridesmaid. His deep closing style often leaves him with too much to do, and his first race against older foes is likely no different. He’s been pushed less and less with each workout so maybe they’re trying to rest him up, a different strategy that could just work. He’s a solid choice for exotic wagering, and his steadily improving speed, which is favored on this track, has us excited.
Newgate, no. 13, 20-1. Into Mischief’s son prepped perfectly for the California Crown (G1), showing no signs of fatigue from Dubai. Unlike many competitors, he is proven over this track and distance. He seems ready to run his best race, but likely will not have enough to beat the top horses in this division.
Pyrenees, no. 8, 30-1. This colt has improved gradually this year but hasn’t faced this competition before. He struggled against Highland Falls last time and will face bigger threats on Saturday. There’s an odd downward curve on his speed chart, too, which worries us a bit, but we’ll offset the worry with excitement over his steadily improving feet-per-second numbers (early, mid, and late).
Señor Buscador, no. 5, 30-1. The pro has earned over $12 million and was in peak form at the Saudi Cup (G1) and third in the Dubai World Cup (G1) this year. However, those races and travel seem to have drained him, as with others before. His two return races in California were flat, indicating a downward trend. AI predicts a bounce upward in performance but is still far below what it will take to win.
Next, no. 14, 8-1. He won his last six races by nearly 90 lengths. While he’s impressive, this race poses challenges due to tougher competition and pace. He faced weak rivals and benefited from slow starts. Starting from a wide post, he might either chase a faster pace or fall behind, hindering his usual strong finish. However, he has the highest average speed ranking in this race and the highest speed of all time (113). Brisnet has him ranked #1 in Prime Power rating too so anything could happen with this one.
Derma Sotogake, no. 6, 20-1. He placed second in this race last year after showing good form. This year has faltered, as he has not finished in the money in all three races he ran in. Like Señor Buscador, the travel to Dubai and Saudi Arabia seems to have affected him.
City of Troy, no. 3, 5-2. The European invader is the most talented horse in a race. He has won four Group 1 races and Aidan O’Brien called him the best horse he’s ever had, a high compliment given his star-studded roster. Despite having turf breeding on his dam side, the son of Justify possesses enough dirt lineage and tactical speed to suggest he can handle it. But here’s the shocker. He will finish near the back of the pack. You heard it here first, folks!
Forever Young, no. 1, 6-1. The Japanese shipper excelled in the Kentucky Derby and looked promising in his sole prep for this race. A bit more seasoning would help, but he’s a head from being undefeated and may possess the raw talent to succeed despite obstacles.
Ushba Tesoro, no. 7, 12-1. The Japan import finished fifth in last year’s Classic and isn’t in the same form as last year when he won six in a row before the race. His style poses challenges on this track.