You have no new notifications
Pick Pony | Oct. 28, 2024, 9:42 p.m.
Don't forget to check out our Breeders' Cup analysis, picks, and predictions for Friday November 1 Breeders' Cup races and Saturday November 2, Breeders' Cup races. It's an EXCLUSIVE for Pick Pony subscribers!
Led by the top U.S. contender Fierceness, Ireland-based City of Troy, and Japan’s Forever Young (JPN) in the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), Rebel’s Romance (IRE) in the $5 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), and Idiomatic in the $2 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), 212 of the world’s finest Thoroughbreds have been pre-entered for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
The 41st running of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, Thoroughbred racing’s most prestigious two-day global event with purses and awards totaling over $34 million, will be held from November 1st to 2nd at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, California for the third time. “Future Stars Friday” will showcase five World Championships races exclusively for two-year-olds, while “Championships Saturday” will feature a 12-race card comprising nine Breeders’ Cup Championship races.
Horses from a record five continents – Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, and South America – have targeted this year’s event as 80 international contenders have been pre-entered. The previous record was 60, set in 2023.
Fans can learn more about their favorite runners via the contender profiles at BreedersCup.com, which provide extensive statistics, race replays, news, photos, and more.
The Breeders’ Cup will be televised live domestically on NBC, Peacock, USA Network, and FanDuel TV. The NBC coverage includes a network window from 3:30-6 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 2. Fans can visit BreedersCup.com/Watch for a detailed broadcast and streaming schedule. International live coverage is led by ITV4, Sky Sports, and RacingTV in the UK and Ireland, along with Green Channel in Japan, which will broadcast live from Del Mar. Additionally, the NBC World Feed will be sent to more than 150 countries around the globe.
The $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), broadcast live on NBC and streamed live on Peacock, will be the centerpiece of the Championships Saturday program. New this year, to take advantage of the 2 1/2-hour national broadcast window on NBC, post time for the Classic will be 2:41 p.m. PT / 5:41 p.m. ET. There will be four Championship races before and four Championship races after the Classic, centering the marquee race as the end of the middle Pick 5 and the start of the late Pick 5 on the wagering menu.
Four Breeders’ Cup Champions are back to seek success at the Breeders’ Cup: 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) winner Big Evs (IRE), who will tackle the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1), Fierceness, winner of the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and a top contender for this year’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, Idiomatic, back to defend her title in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and Rebel’s Romance, winner of the 2022 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf.
In addition, 49 pre-entered horses earned automatic starting positions into the World Championships races through the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series: Win and You’re In.
“The record number of outstanding international contenders pre-entered this year speaks to the truly global nature of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships and is a testament to the connections who have targeted our festival of racing,” said Drew Fleming, President & CEO of Breeders’ Cup Limited. “We express our gratitude to the skilled individuals worldwide who provide the exceptional care that allows these remarkable Thoroughbreds to excel at the highest level. We also thank our hosts at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club for their wonderful hospitality and extend our appreciation to our breeders and nominators, whose dedication helps underwrite the World Championships. We also thank the bettors and fans from around the globe for their unwavering support, and look forward to hosting a Breeders’ Cup for the ages at Del Mar.”
Sixteen horses have been pre-entered in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, run on the main track at 1 1/4 miles, led by Repole Stable’s homebred Fierceness. A son of 2018 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner City of Light, Fierceness will take on older horses for the first time off back-to-back victories in the Aug. 24 Travers Stakes (G1) and the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) in July. The Todd Pletcher trainee upset the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to cap his 2023 season and was named champion 2-year-old male last year on the merits of that win. He held the No. 1 place in the 2024 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings for the final five weeks of the 11-week poll.
City of Troy, the highest-rated turf horse in the world after his remarkable win in the Aug. 21 Juddmonte International Stakes (G1), looks to give trainer Aidan O’Brien an elusive Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic score as the trainer’s 18th starter in the marquee event. Bred in Kentucky but campaigned exclusively in Europe to date by Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith, the son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify has won three in a row in Great Britain, starting with the June 1 Epsom Derby (G1) and adding the Coral Eclipse Stakes (G1) in July before his Juddmonte International tour de force.
Susumu Fujita’s Forever Young prepped for a return to the United States with an easy win in the Oct. 2 Japan Cup Dirt Classic at Ohi and has his connections dreaming of revenge after a narrow loss in the Kentucky Derby (G1) one start prior. The Real Steel (JPN) colt punched his ticket to the United States earlier this season with back-to-back wins in the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby (G2) and finished a narrow third behind fellow Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic contender Sierra Leone in the May 4 Run for the Roses.
The pre-entries for the Classic are completed by Arthur’s Ride, Derma Sotogake (JPN),Highland Falls, Mixto, Newgate, Next, Senor Buscador, Sierra Leone,Skippylongstocking, Tapit Trice, and Ushba Tesoro (JPN). Also-Eligible are Pyreneesand Rattle N Roll.
Next has second preference in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf while Senor Buscador, Skippylongstocking, and Derma Sotogake (JPN) have second preference in the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
A total of 16 horses that have won the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic have gone on to be named Horse of the Year.
In the $5 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) at 1 1/2 miles, Godolphin homebred Rebel’s Romance (IRE) returns in pursuit of the same form that saw him find the Breeders’ Cup winner’s circle in 2022. The 6-year-old Dubawi (IRE) gelding missed the World Championships last year but has won five of six starts for trainer Charlie Appleby this season, including the Longines Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) in March at Meydan, the Hong Kong Champions & Chater Cup (G1) in May at Sha Tin, and the Preis von Europa (G1) last time out in September at Koln.
The 17 pre-entries for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf are completed by Content (IRE), Continuous (JPN), El Encinal (ARG), Emily Upjohn (GB), Far Bridge, Gold Phoenix (IRE), Grand Sonata, Illinois (IRE), Jayarebe (FR), Luxembourg (IRE), Rousham Park (JPN), Shahryar (JPN), and Wingspan (IRE). Also-Eligible are Next, Cabo Spirit, and There Goes Harvard.
Content (IRE), Emily Upjohn (GB), and Wingspan (IRE) have first preference in the Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). Next has first preference in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Soaring in off a dominant 6 1/2-length victory in the Oct. 6 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, 2023 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) winner Idiomatic faces 3-year-oldThorpedo Anna in the 2024 renewal of the 1 1/8-mile test.
Bred and raced by Juddmonte, 5-year-old Idiomatic followed the same path to success for trainer Brad Cox last year, earning an automatic berth into the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff in the Spinster Stakes via the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series before finding the Breeders’ Cup winner’s circle. The daughter of 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Curlin is a five-time Grade 1 winner.
Thorpedo Anna, campaigned by Brookdale Racing, Mark Edwards, breeder Judy B. Hicks, and Magdalena Racing, will make her way to the World Championships for the first time. Her fantastic sophomore season for trainer Kenny McPeek has included victories in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) in May, the Acorn Stakes (G1) in June, and the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) in July, a narrow runner-up finish to Fierceness in the Travers Stakes in August, and a return to victory in the Sept. 21 Cotillion Stakes (G1), her most recent start.
The 12 pre-entries for the Distaff are completed by Awesome Result, Batucada, Candied, Che Evasora (ARG), Honor D Lady, Miss New York, Musical Mischief, Raging Sea, Sugar Fish, and Alice Verite (JPN). Alice Verite (JPN) has first preference in the Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
For profiles of every Breeders’ Cup contender, features on key individuals and aspects, previews of the 14 Breeders’ Cup races, and more, fans can visit BreedersCup.com.
A maximum of 14 starters are allowed in each of the 14 Breeders’ Cup World Championships races except for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, which are limited to 12 starters. Breeders’ Cup Limited has adopted a field selection system to select runners in the event fields are oversubscribed. This system ranks horses in order of preference based on (i) Breeders’ Cup Challenge race winners, (ii) a point system, and (iii) the judgment of an independent international panel of racing experts. The field selection system was implemented following the taking of pre-entries on Monday, Oct. 21, to officially rank the oversubscribed fields. The Racing Secretaries and Directors Panel (the “Panel”) ranked all the horses pre-entered in the oversubscribed races as described above. After pre-entry, any vacancies in the fields will be filled by horses in order of Panel preference.
There will be up to four (4) also-eligible horses for each Championship race, except for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, which will have up to six (6). The also-eligible horses will be designated in accordance with the Panel’s order of preference for each Championship race that was oversubscribed at the time of pre-entry. Scratch time for Friday Championship races will be 8 a.m. PT, Friday, Nov. 1, and scratch time for Saturday’s Championship races will be at 8 a.m. PT on Saturday, Nov. 2.
Breeders’ Cup Limited administers the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, Thoroughbred racing’s year-end Championships, as well as the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series: Win and You’re In, which provides automatic starting positions into the Championships races through an 82-race series hosted by 12 countries, and the U.S.-based Dirt Dozen Bonus Series. The Breeders’ Cup operates under the national, uniform rules and regulations of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) and its Horseracing Integrity & Welfare Unit (HIWU).
The 2024 Breeders’ Cup World Championships, featuring 14 Grade 1 Championship races run during a two-day festival worth more than $34 million in purses and awards, will be held Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar in Del Mar, California. The 2025 World Championships will also be held at Del Mar on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. The 2025 World Championships will also be held at Del Mar on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. The Championships will be televised live by NBC Sports. Press releases appear on the Breeders’ Cup website, BreedersCup.com. You can also follow the Breeders’ Cup on social media.
Opened in 1937, San Diego’s iconic — and the nation’s only — seaside racetrack features the world’s top racehorses, trainers, and jockeys, as well as the best in fashion and classic California culture "where the turf meets the surf.” What began as a Hollywood hotspot in the era of the racetrack’s founder, Bing Crosby, is now one of America's foremost racetracks and a premier Southern
Breeders' Cup Limited announced today the official order of races, post times, and wagering menu for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup World Championships, scheduled to take place on Friday, Nov. 1 and Saturday, Nov. 2 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, Calif.
The World Championships wagering menu will provide horseplayers with multi-race wagers featuring multi-million-dollar pools throughout the two-day program at Del Mar.
Continuous coverage of all Breeders’ Cup World Championship races on Friday and Saturday will stream live on Peacock both days. Additionally, all undercard and World Championship races, except the Classic, will be shown live on FanDuel TV as part of the Breeders’ Cup Players’ Show coverage, which is also available on BreedersCup.com and mobile app, all major ADW platforms, and at simulcast facilities around the world.
There will be a total of 10 races (five Breeders' Cup races) on the first day of the Championships – “Future Stars Friday” – and 12 races on the Saturday program (nine Breeders' Cup races). The Friday program begins at 11:35 a.m. PT / 2:35 p.m. ET with five undercard races. The first Breeders’ Cup World Championships race on Friday will be the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1), which will have a post time of 2:45 p.m. PT / 5:45 p.m. ET. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) (Race #10) will be the final race of the day with a post time of 5:25 p.m. PT / 8:25 p.m. ET.
Saturday’s first post is 10:05 a.m. PT / 1:05 p.m. ET and begins with three undercard races. The $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) (Race #8) will have a post time of 2:41 p.m. PT / 5:41 p.m. ET.
There will be four outstanding Breeders’ Cup World Championships races after the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, as follows:
This year, various countries, including Canada, England, France, Germany, and Ireland, will be offering pari-mutuel, commingled wagering on the World Championships through the Breeders’ Cup Global Pool.
Other jurisdictions will be offering separate pool wagering including Australia, Hong Kong, Jamaica, Japan, Mexico, and Turkey.
The 2024 wagering menu will include a Breeders’ Cup $3 All-Turf Pick 3 on Friday. The three races, in order, are:
The Breeders’ Cup All-Turf Pick 4 on Saturday is a $.50 minimum wager and will package four of the best turf races in the world together with full fields of international competitors. The four races, in order, are:
The Breeders’ Cup will also offer the Breeders’ Cup All-Dirt Pick 4 on Saturday, which is a $.50 minimum wager. The four races, in order, are:
Breeders’ Cup will also offer three Pick 5’s on Saturday. The early Pick 5 will be Race 1 through Race 5. The middle Pick 5 will start with Race 4, the PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) and end with Race 8, the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). The late Pick 5 will start with the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and end with the final race of the day, the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
Breeders’ Cup races bring together the best horses from coast to coast in the United States along with some top international contenders, which can make World Championships races unpredictable.
That unpredictability is a big part of the allure, not only for the competitors but for bettors who spend much of the year handicapping five- and six-horse fields and suddenly feast their eyes on a program filled with quality fields with 10 to 14 starters. To put it succinctly, if you have a strong opinion on Breeders’ Cup day you will be rewarded when correct.
There are winners at double-digit odds at every Breeders’ Cup, and even if your best bet is between 3-1 and 9-2 odds, you can bet them big to win or get creative with exactas/trifectas or multi-race bets to reach for a bigger payout.
Perhaps no race over the past 25 years has been as consistently unpredictable than the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which has had 10 winners at double-digit odds from 1999 to 2023. Just last year, Fierceness was beaten by 20 ¼ lengths in his final pre-Breeders’ Cup start and rolled to a 6 ¼-length runaway victory Nov. 3 at Santa Anita Park in the 2023 Juvenile, rewarding his backers with a $35 return for a $2 win bet.
Using the last 25 editions of the race as the guide, here are some key trends and historical nuggets to help you pick a winner for the 2024 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Nov. 1 at Del Mar.
Let’s set aside Fierceness last year for a minute. He looks like a clear anomaly over the last quarter-century as the only Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to enter the race off an unplaced finish. The other 24 entered off a top-three finish with 16 of the 25 and 10 of the last 14 coming into the Juvenile off a win. The group as a whole won 55 of 86 starts for a 64% win rate.In Fierceness’ case, my best explanation is that he ran a hole in the wind in his debut and his seventh-place finish in the Champagne Stakes was a negative reaction to a monster race in his first start. He has since proved to be a bit of a quirky racehorse and also much better than his 16.5-1 odds in last year’s Juvenile suggested.
In evaluating the last 25 editions of the Juvenile, some winners have run exceptionally fast like War Pass in 2007 and Uncle Mo in 2010, both earning 123 Equibase Speed Figures. Others, like Shanghai Bobby (86 Equibase Speed Figure), ran winning races that were, well, not so fast. It seems obvious, but in terms of speed figures, consider these 2-year-old contenders in comparison with their peers rather than a historical benchmark.
Place a strong emphasis on class as 12 of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners had already won a Grade 1 race and 15 were at least stakes winners. Only three were not either graded stakes-placed or a stakes winner. One of the three was Fierceness and the other two entered off maiden wins for Hall of Fame trainers: Action This Day (2003) and New Year’s Day (2013).Prior to Fierceness, the previous nine Juvenile winners were either Grade 1 winners or had finished in the top three in a Grade 1 race.
When you glance at the list of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-winning trainers over the last 25 years, many of the names will be recognizable to casual fans: Bob Baffert (five wins), Todd Pletcher (four wins), Doug O’Neill (two wins), Chad Brown, Brad Cox, Richard Mandella, Mark Casse. Add in older Hall of Famers like Carl Nafzger and Nick Zito and elite European trainer Aidan O’Brien and these are the trainers of 18 of the last 23 Breeders’ Cup winners.
It makes sense as big trainers are training a higher percentage of the horse population, but suffice it to say look in obvious places first when trying to find the 2024 Juvenile winner.
Only five of the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were won by the race favorite, but all five were unbeaten, having combined to win all 14 of three pre-Breeders’ Cup starts. They were rising stars for Nick Zito (War Pass, 2007), Todd Pletcher (Uncle Mo, 2010; Shanghai Bobby, 2012), and Bob Baffert (Game Winner, 2018; Corniche, 2021) who capped unbeaten championship campaigns. Four of the five were pace or press the pace types with only Game Winner preferring to rally from off the pace.
Seven of the 10 winners at double-digit odds from 1999 through 2023 came at Southern California venues, either Santa Anita Park or this year’s host Del Mar. If you eliminate the two editions held on an all-weather surface in Southern California, six of the other nine editions in the state were won by double-digit longshots.
Keep an eye on closers. Of the 10 total double-digit longshots since 1999 – ranging from 10.5-1 (New Year’s Day, 2013) to 45.9-1 (Storm the Court, 2019) odds – six were fifth or worse after the opening quarter-mile and four were between 11th and 14th after a quarter-mile had been run in the 1 1/16-mile race. Five of the 10 were eighth or worse after a half-mile had been completed.
Only two of the 10 longshots entered off victories: Action This Day won at 26.8-1 off a maiden win in 2003 and New Year’s Day won off of a maiden win in 2013. Seven of the other eight entered off a top-three finish in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race. Only Fierceness was unplaced in his final start from among this group.
Five of the last 25 editions of the Juvenile were won by confirmed pacesetters, while three were press-the-pace type runners. Three closers won the race and another five prevailed who fit a stalker/closer mold.
There also were seven who profiled as stalkers and two others who fit into the stalker/press the pace category, so no particular running style has been especially effective.
Tactical speed has been helpful with 10 winners running in either first or second after the opening quarter-mile and half-mile. Likewise, only two of the last 25 Juvenile winners were more than two lengths back in early stretch.
In the nine editions held on dirt in Southern California, six of the runners were in the top three after the first quarter-mile and seven of the nine were in first in early stretch, so it has been more difficult to close in the Breeders’ Cup Juveniles held on dirt in California.
Only one Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner in the last 25 years was not bred in Kentucky: Irish-bred Vale of York, a 30.6-1 longshot winner on the all-weather surface at Santa Anita in 2009. It’s a safe bet that this year’s Juvenile winner will be a Kentucky-bred 2-year-old.
Over the last 25 years, 10 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners came out of prep races in California, five came out of the Champagne Stakes in New York, and four made their final pre-Breeders’ Cup start at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity, so it makes sense to start there.
Citizen Bull won the American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse at Santa Anita by two lengths for his second win in three starts for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won 20% of the last 25 editions of the race. Citizen Bull is a strong win candidate, but others have more appeal to me.
East Avenue looks like the most likely winner coming out of a front-running, 5 ¼-length romp in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. The Godolphin homebred trained by Brendan Walsh improved to 2-for-2 with the win and has tactical speed, but I don’t think he’s a need-the-lead type.
Chancer McPatrick is another unbeaten contender after closing from ninth to win the Champagne Stakes by 2 ¾ lengths for top trainer Chad Brown. He’s 3-for-3 and comes out of a very productive prep race.
For bettors looking for a longshot, American Pharoah runner-up Getaway Car was favored over Bob Baffert stablemate Citizen Bull in that race. He was taken off the pace for the first time in the American Pharoah and ran pretty well. He could be the best value of Baffert’s three prospective contenders. Likewise, Ferocious finished second as the favorite in the Breeders’ Futurity after he unseated his rider before the race and then was bumped entering the first turn.
If you are looking for a true bombs-away longshot, I have two that might fit the bill. McKinzie Street finished a well-beaten third in the American Pharoah Stakes after a runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. He does his best running from off the pace and enters off a top-three finish in a key California prep race. Japanese invader Shin Believe, a Kentucky-bred for top Japanese trainer Hideyuki Mori, enters off a dominant maiden win at 1 1/8 miles in his career debut and very likely will be overlooked.
We’ve all been there before … walking into an unfamiliar setting and not knowing exactly what to say or what others are talking about. It can be flat-out overwhelming.
A day at the racetrack can feel like the first day at a new job with dozens and dozens of horse racing terms and idioms that are almost a separate language, not to mention the program or Daily Racing Form at your fingertips that looks like it was designed by an accounting professor.
The Breeders’ Cup World Championships Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar is on the horizon and America’s Best Racing is here to help you navigate the complex terminology of the sport of Thoroughbred racing, whether you just want to watch and enjoy races or try your hand at betting a few bucks.
With that in mind, we’ve put together a list of some common horse racing terms to help lift the cloud of confusion and set you up for success on the path to fandom. Consider this our own version of horse racing and horse betting for dummies. It is essentially a primer for fans attending or watching the Breeders’ Cup, covering some of the unfamiliar terms and jargon you might encounter.
Win – A bet on a horse to finish first.Place bet – A bet on a horse to finish first or second.Show bet – A bet on a horse to finish in the money; third or better.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible. Also known as a pacesetter.
Stalker – A horse that is capable of relaxing early in races behind the pacesetter but with enough speed to stay closer to the front so he/she has less ground to make up late in a race.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Sire – The father of the racehorse. Typically, sires are well-known horses who had standout careers on the racetrack.
Dam – The mother of a racehorse. There is an old saying that goes, “Breed the best to the best to get the best,” which means pairing a talented dam with a talented and productive sire to have the best chance to breed an elite racehorse.
Across the board – A bet on a horse to win, place, and show. Actually, it’s three bets. If the horse wins, the player collects all three ways; if second, two ways; and if third, one way, losing the win and place bets but cashing the show bet.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device over the eyes that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Box – A betting term denoting a combination bet whereby all possible numeric combinations are covered for those certain horses. Sometimes when you like multiple horses equally, the best option is to box them in an exacta or trifecta (more on them below).
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Chalk – Betting favorite in a race. A gambler who almost always bets on favorites might be called a “chalk player.”
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Daily Double (or Double) – Type of bet calling for the selection of winners of two consecutive races. This is a good second step for fans who have advanced beyond the three basic bets listed above.
Exacta – A wager in which the first two finishers in a race, in exact order of finish, must be picked. Like the Daily Double above, a fun second step for fans looking for something more advanced than the three basic bets listed above. If you "box" the exacta (referenced above), you are making two separate bets so the horses can finish first and second in either order.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile. Thus, a six-furlong race is three-quarters of a mile and a 10-furlong race is 1 ¼ miles.
Morning line – The starting odds set by the track handicapper, a person hired by the track to analyze each race and determine which horses will be favored by the public to win.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast.”
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines, and other data, presented in composite form in places like the track program or Daily Racing Form.
Post Parade – Horses going from the paddock where they are saddled to the starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators a chance to get a final look at the horses before the start of a race.
Post Position – Position of the stall in the starting gate from which a horse begins a race. While the shortest path around is the fastest, the inside post in large fields – because of potential traffic trouble – can be disadvantageous. Likewise, outside post positions are less desirable because horses often get caught wide, outside of other horses, on the turns and are forced to navigate a longer distance.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement. You will often hear a horse’s final race before the Breeders’ Cup referred to as a "prep" race, meaning it was a steppingstone to the World Championships designed to help him or her reach peak form at Del Mar Nov. 1-2.
Trifecta – A bet in which the first three finishers must be selected in exact order. If you chose to "box" them (multiple bets), the horses can finish in any order but you must have included each of the top three in the bet.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts. This can happen for any number of reasons such as a horse spiking a fever before the race or simply because the on-track veterinarian charged with ensuring the safety of participants does not like the way a racehorse is behaving.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys. Each owner has a unique set of silks.
Speed Figure – A metric that rates a horse’s performance in a race, which is determined by a combination of the horse’s performance and the level of competition he/she competed against.
Stakes – Who doesn’t love a steak dinner, and there are plenty of great restaurants close to Del Mar. But no, the word stakes in horse racing does not have anything to do with a cut of meat. It’s short for sweepstakes and in horse racing it refers to a race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee. The 14 Breeders’ Cup races all are stakes races.
Isa Salman Al Khalifa’s Economics (GB) and H H Aga Khan’s Calandagan (IRE) will clash for the first time in a top-quality renewal of the 1 1/4-mile QIPCO British Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot. This Saturday, the British flat racing season comes to its conclusion with two Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series: Win and You’re In races featured as part of a spectacular card. The QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (G1) gives the winner an automatic starting position for the $2 million Makers’ Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) and the winner of the QIPCO Champion Stakes (G1) earns an invitation to the $5 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).
The Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series is an international series of 82 stakes races in 12 countries whose winners receive automatic starting positions and fees paid into a corresponding race of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, scheduled to be held Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, California.
Top 3-Year-Olds Clash in Champion Stakes
Economics, trained by William Haggis, has been a revelation for connections this season, winning all four races under Tom Marquand and progressing from his Maiden Stakes victory at Newbury in April to defeating Auguste Rodin (IRE) in last month’s Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (G1). That victory secured his berth at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup.
Haggas said: “As long as he can stay well and run to his best, I think he is sure to run a good race. He battled well in Ireland and was tactically good. He fought hard when he had to in a top-class race and I was pleased he won a Group 1 as that makes things a lot easier.”
Due to its position late on in the calendar, British Champions Day can take place on testing ground and just like 12 months ago, Ascot’s contingency of racing on the inner round course is required with heavy ground on the round course.
When asked whether he had any concerns about the going, Haggas said: “I’m not going to pull him out because of the ground. He’s won on fast ground this year, so we’ll see whether he copes with it. I think he’ll be okay because I think he’s very versatile, but it will be on the top of the list of excuses if it all goes wrong, I suppose.”
French Challenger Calandagan’s latest two starts have come in the UK. At Royal Ascot the son of Gleneagles (IRE) announced himself as a hugely exciting prospect, winning the King Edward VII Stakes (G2) in emphatic fashion by 6 lengths. He subsequently chased home City Of Troy in the Juddmonte Stakes (G1) at York, when briefly looking as if he could challenge Aidan O’Brien’s Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) contender.
Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith’s Los Angeles (IRE) finished an excellent third behind Bluestocking (GB) in the Oct. 6 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) going 1 1/2 miles. The Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (G1) winner is reported to have returned from the French capital in excellent condition and will take his chance under Ryan Moore.
Bertrand Milliere & Partners’ Iresine (FR) made a belated winning seasonal reappearance to win the Sept. 15 Qatar Prix Foy (G2) at Longchamp. The two-time Group 1 scorer will be running over 1 1/4 miles for the first time in over a year, but will relish the testing conditions at Ascot.
Mohammed Jaber’s King’s Gambit (IRE) was outlasted over 1 1/2 miles at York by Los Angeles in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (G2) when only third of five runners. He looked progressive prior to that though and could resume his progress after being given a mid-season break.
A field of 12 will go to post for a race worth £1.3m ($1.69m).
Kalpana Heads Open Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
Juddmonte’s 3-year-old filly Kalpana (GB), an impressive winner of the Unibet September Stakes (G3) at Kempton last month, is the favorite for the 1 1/2-mile British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (G1) for trainer Andrew Balding and jockey William Buick. Juddmonte is also represented by Time Lock (GB). The 5-year-old daughter of Frankel finished 7th in this contest last year but arrives here fresh after a 5-length victory at Newmarket on soft ground.
Three-year-olds have won eight of the last 10 renewals of the race and the Aidan O’Brien-trained Content (IRE), like Kalpana, is one from the Classic generation hoping to be crowned Champion Filly at Ascot. The daughter of Galileo (IRE) has already secured her spot in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf after she won the Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks (G1) in August.
Of the 4-year-olds, Elite Racing Club’s Tiffany (IRE) finished extremely well over 1 1/2 miles in the T.von Zastrow Stutenpreis (G2) at Baden Baden, and Quantanamera (GER) was a 4-length winner of the Lucien Barriere Grand Prix de Deauville (G2) for German trainer Andreas Suborics. John and Thady Gosden won the 2022 renewal with Emily Upjohn (GB) and return to this race with Queen of the Pride (GB).
A total of 14 go to post for a race worth £500,000 ($650,000) which has been won by household names such as Magical (IRE) and Ouija Board (GB).
As part of the benefits of the Challenge Series, Breeders’ Cup will pay the entry fees for the Challenge Series winners to start at this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. Breeders’ Cup will also provide a travel allowance for all starters based outside of North America to compete in the World Championships. The Challenge winners must be nominated to the Breeders’ Cup program by the Championships’ pre-entry deadline of Oct. 21 to receive the rewards.
Shadwell Estate Company’s Anmaat (IRE) overcame trouble in midstretch to cause a major upset in the QIPCO British Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot on QIPCO British Champions Day. The victory earned the 6-year-old son of Awtaad (IRE) an automatic berth into the $5 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) through the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series: Win and You’re In.
The QIPCO British Champion Stakes was one of two Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races to take place at Ascot on Saturday, along with the QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (G1). The Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series is an international series of 82 Graded/Group stakes races whose winners receive automatic starting positions and fees paid into a corresponding race of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, scheduled to be held at Del Mar on Nov. 1-2.
In the feature race of the day, Anmaat, who was sent off at 40-1 despite already being a Group 1 winner, was settled towards the rear of the field. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Continuous (IRE) ensured a strong gallop at the head of affairs. As the field turned into the home straight, the Jim Crowley-ridden Anmaat and the 3-2 favorite Calandagan (IRE) were met with a wall of horses in front of them and looked to have no way through.
Economics (GB) was first to make his challenge and was joined by rank outsider Persica (IRE). Eventually, Calandagan and Anmaat were able to come with a run and the pair flew home with the Owen Burrows-trained 6-year-old able to edge out his French rival by a half- length. The Karl Burke-trained Royal Rhyme (IRE) was a further 1 ¾ lengths back in third.
After winning the race for the first time in dramatic fashion, winning jockey Jim Crowley said: “The first half of the race went perfect. We just had to work our way through and were completely stopped. I won’t tell you what I was thinking at that point but when he got the gap it was extraordinary the way he picked up.”
Remarkably, this is the first Group 1 winner Jim Crowley has ridden this season.
He added: “He’s gone under everybody’s radar; it was touch and go whether we ran in this race. It’s a great comeback from him.”
Trainer Owen Burrows is no stranger to Group 1 success in these silks having trained all five of his Group 1 winners for Shadwell.
He said: “It just went wrong in France a couple of weeks ago and I think Jim (Crowley) will admit that wasn’t his finest hour. How he’s won it has surprised me more than anything. I put my binoculars down halfway up the straight, I thought he had no chance. To pick up in this ground like that I thought was a heck of a performance.”
Anmaat covered the 1 ¼ miles in 2:08:96 over a course listed as Soft.
Kalpana takes step up to Group 1 company in her stride in QIPCO British Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes
The rapidly improving Kalpana (GB) produced a stunning turn of foot to land the 1 ½-mile QIPCO British Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes (G1), securing an automatic entry into the $2 million Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1).
Sent off the 7-2 favorite for trainer Andrew Balding with William Buick in the saddle, the daughter of Study of Man (IRE) came into this contest off the back of a taking success in the Unibet September Stakes (G3).
The Aidan O’Brien-trained Wingspan (IRE) made the early running while Kalpana was settled handily in fifth. The order of the field remained the same throughout with Tiffany (IRE) sitting just off the pace under Luke Morris in second. As the field turned for home, Kalpana began to make her move on the outside and soon headed the front-running Wingspan. Passing the furlong pole, the 3-year-old Kalpana shot clear of her rivals in impressive style to go on and win by 2 lengths from Wingspan. The latter stayed on for second, finishing 3 lengths in front of Tiffany.
Speaking after securing a first win in this contest, trainer Andrew Balding said: “She’s so relaxed and a brilliant filly. It’s been a pretty steep trajectory from Wolverhampton to here. I very much hope she’ll stay in-training, that was always the plan. Juddmonte are an amazing operation, and they thoroughly deserve the success they have.”
Kalpana completed the 1 ½ mile race in 2:29:57
METEORIC RISE
Gun Runner’s triumph in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club—the first edition of the marquee race held at the seaside track—was one for the ages. The crowning achievement of a season that saw him win four straight Grade 1 races, it set him up for the tour de force in the 2018 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) that closed out his career with earnings of nearly $16 million, and solidified his position as champion older dirt male and Horse of the Year.
While Gun Runner’s impressive racing career as a whole played a role in attracting high-quality mares when he entered stud in 2018 at Three Chimneys Farm, the Classic win marked a pivotal moment, amplifying the prestige associated with his first book. And his progeny have more than delivered, propelling him into the upper echelons of elite stallions.
Chris Baker, chief operating officer of Three Chimneys Farm, says Gun Runner accomplished a remarkable ascent in the breeding world, characterized by unprecedented achievements.
EXCEPTIONAL TRAITS
The year 2021 was a special one for Knicks Go. The talented son of Paynter capped his final campaign with a four-race winning streak that culminated with a victory in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar. Just the second horse in history to ever win the Classic at Del Mar, Knicks Go was named Horse of the Year and champion older dirt male, and claimed the title of Longines World’s Best Racehorse as a result. He entered stud in 2022 at Taylor Made Stallions.
“Knicks Go passes along traits of exceptional balance and medium size to his offspring,” says Travis White, stallion nomination manager at Taylor Made Stallions. The striking gray’s progeny also exhibit good substance, strong hips and shoulders, and fluid movement. His weanlings proved appealing in the auction ring, and his first foals are yearlings of 2024, offering a world of possibility to investors.
A standout racing career, including a track-record victory in the 2020 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), distinguished Knicks Go as a promising prospect and significantly enhanced the quality of mares he attracted in his first season at stud.
“With each passing year, Knicks Go’s popularity continues to grow,” White says.
Del Mar had long been considered one of horse racing’s most treasured venues, but like Keeneland Race Course its seasonal boutique meets did not seem to be an ideal fit for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships. That all changed with an announcement by Breeders’ Cup officials on June 24, 2014.
Keeneland was named a first-time host track for 2015, Santa Anita Park would follow as the Breeders’ Cup venue in 2016, and Del Mar would host its first World Championships the following year in 2017.
The success of the first Breeders’ Cups at these new venues, Keeneland and Del Mar, led to the return of the event to the Lexington, Ky., track in 2020 and 2022 and to seaside Del Mar in Southern California in 2021 and again this year on Nov. 1-2.
Heading into the third Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar, let’s take a look back at some of the best moments from the first two World Championships “where the turf meets the surf” … and there were many!
2017 Breeders Cup (Nov. 3-4)
Before Friday’s card was rebranded “Future Stars Friday” for the 2018 event at Churchill Downs, the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff served as the anchor race on the first card of the two-day Breeders’ Cup.
And so it was that on Friday of the 2017 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar, a crowd of 32,728 watched 4-year-old filly Forever Unbridled win the $2 million Longines Distaff by a half-length over Abel Tasman.
Budding star Rushing Fall won the first World Championships race on the Friday card by three-quarters of a length in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She would go on to earn over $2.9 million in her career through four seasons of racing.
Breeders’ Cup Saturday got off to a rollicking start highlighted by three straight upsets from Caledonia Road ($36.60) in the 14 Hands Winery Juvenile Fillies, Stormy Liberal ($62.40) in the Turf Sprint, and Bar of Gold ($135.40) in the Filly and Mare Sprint. Bar of Gold’s 66.70-1 odds produced, at the time, the second highest win price in Breeders’ Cup history behind only Arcangues’ $2 win payout of $269.20 in the 1993 Classic.
Speaking of the Classic, Gun Runner set the pace as the second betting choice in the $6 million race and simply dominated in front of 37,692 fans, winning by 2 ¼ lengths under Florent Geroux en route to Horse of the Year honors for 2017.
Earlier on the card, history was made when Good Magic became the first horse to break his maiden (earn his first career win) in a Breeders’ Cup race with a victory in the Sentient Jet Juvenile. The Chad Brown trainee would go on to finish second to eventual Triple Crown winner Justify in the 2018 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and, after retiring from the track, become one of the most successful young stallions in North America.
The two-day on-track wagering total of $25,181,317 was the highest-ever for the event.
2021 Breeders’ Cup (Nov. 5-6)
On Aug. 17, 2018 – nine months after the first World Championships at Del Mar – Breeders’ Cup confirmed that the event would return to the seaside track in 2021. The 38th Breeders’ Cup benefited from an expansion of international broadcast coverage in the U.K. and Ireland through contracts with ITV, Sky Sports Racing, and Racing TV.
Future Stars Friday lived up to its name as future champions Echo Zulu, Corniche, and Modern Games dazzled. Echo Zulu won the NetJets Juvenile Fillies to cap an unbeaten season that culminated with the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old filly, while Corniche improved to 3-for-3 with a win in the TVG Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance on his way to champion 2-year-old male honors.
After being inadvertently scratched prior to the start of the $1 million Juvenile Turf, Modern Games was reloaded into the gate and won by 1 ½ lengths while running for purse money only. The Godolphin homebred would go on to attain international stardom for trainer Charlie Appleby and won the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF a year later at Keeneland to cement the Eclipse Award as 2022 champion turf male.
Fortunately for racing fans, the weekend was just getting warm.
Knicks Go, the 2020 Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile winner, recorded his fourth straight stakes win with a dominant, front-running 2 ¾-length win in the $6 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic for owner Korea Racing Authority. He subsequently was named 2021 champion older dirt male and Horse of the Year.
Earlier on the card, an international storyline with global implications captivated racing fans as history was made in the $2 million Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf when Japan earned its first victory in the World Championships. Five-year-old star Loves Only You charged to the front in deep stretch under Yuga Kawada and edged My Sister Nat by a half-length for trainer Yoshito Yahagi and owner DMM Dream Club.
Japan did not have to wait long for its second Breeders’ Cup winner, as three races later overlooked Marche Lorraine, also trained by Yahagi, closed from ninth of 11 runners to win the $2 million Longines Distaff, nipping Dunbar Road by a nose in a thriller at odds of 49.90-1.
The unforgettable two-day event established a then-record for total all-sources handle ($183,260,127) for the World Championships.
For the first time, Breeders’ Cup, America’s Best Racing, and Hípica TV collaborated to present live coverage, entirely in Spanish, of all 14 Breeders’ Cup World Championships races via “Breeders’ Cup en Vivo,” which drew more than 282,000 views on Hípica TV’s YouTube channel over the two days.
The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic is the marquee race in North America in the second half of the year, a 1 ¼-mile race with a $7 million purse that goes a long way toward determining Horse of the Year. This year will be the 41st edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Much has changed in the sport of horse racing since the first edition in 1984, but history can guide us in multiple ways in terms of what to look for in a Classic winner.
I’ve compiled data on the last 25 editions of the race to try to identify helpful trends for picking the winner of this year’s edition Nov. 2 at Del Mar. Using the Breeders’ Cup Classics from 1999 to 2023, there are several points that jump out as significant.
Favorites are winning more often
There have been some longshot winners of the Classic in the last 25 years, but seven favorites have won in the 20 editions since 2004 and the last nine winners (and 10 of the last 11) have been less than 5-1 odds. Seven of those nine winners were 7-2 odds or less. Simply put, you did not need to venture past the logical winners in recent years.
The average winning odds since 1999 for the Classic winner were 7.5-1 with a median of 4.4-1.
Impeccable recent form
Based on the trend above, it’s no surprise that recent Breeders’ Cup Classic winners have entered the race in tip-top form. Classic winners over the past 25 years have been exceptional in the five months leading up to the race – from June 1 through (but not including) the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
The last 25 Classic winners compiled a cumulative record of 46 wins from 79 starts for a 58.2% winning percentage and finished in the top three in 74 of those 79 races, good for 93.7%.
The last 10 years have yielded even better results with 22 wins from 30 cumulative starts (73.3%) by Classic winners from June through their final prep races from 2014 to 2023. These horses finished first, second, or third in 28 of their 30 starts.
Furthermore, 16 of the 25 winners entered the Breeders’ Cup Classic off a win and Vino Rosso in 2019 crossed the finish line first in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but was disqualified and placed second. The last 11 winners either won their final prep or ran second, beaten by less than a length. Inconsistent racehorses just don’t win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Elite class
The last 20 winners of the race were all proven Grade or Group 1 winners. Twenty-three of the 25 already had a Grade 1 win on their résumés and the other two were Grade 2 winners.
The Breeders’ Cup Classic is not a spot for a breakout performance from a runner on the rise, it’s a race won by established stars.
New York, New York
Twelve of the last 25 Breeders’ Cup Classic winners made their final pre-World Championships start in New York, including five of the last nine. That surprised me a bit as only two of the 25 events were held in the state.
In fact, 11 of the last 25 Breeders’ Cups were held in California. If you remove the two held at Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park in 2008 and 2009 – the only two editions in the last 25 years held on an all-weather surface – five of those nine California Breeders’ Cup Classics were won by horses who prepped in New York.
California is a clear second with seven winners, including five coming out of the race now called the California Crown (formerly the Goodwood then Awesome Again Stakes). The other six winners came from Kentucky (2), Europe, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey.
Tactical speed, especially recently, is advantageous
Closers can and do win the Breeders’ Cup Classic – four closers in the last 25 years to be precise – but make no mistake, tactical speed has been a significant advantage in the 1 ¼-mile race. Eleven of the last 25 winners profiled as racehorses that preferred to race on or near the lead. Of the last dozen Breeders’ Cup Classic winners, six led after the opening quarter-mile and none was more than 3 ½ lengths back at that point in the race. The last 12 were second or better in early stretch, so this race recently has not been won by horses rallying from way back.
On the dirt in California
Eleven of the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup were held in California with nine at Santa Anita Park and two at Del Mar. If you remove the two held at Oak Tree at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009 – the only two editions in the last 25 years held on an all-weather surface – what do the California Classic winners look like?
The oldest of the nine in this sample was won by Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella’s closer Pleasantly Perfect, a Grade 2 winner who was victorious in 2003. The last eight (2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023) were won by proven Grade 1 winners and all were won by horses that were within 2 ½ lengths of the front after the first half-mile with four of the eight setting the pace. The last seven of this group finished first in their final Breeders’ Cup prep, although Vino Rosso, as mentioned above, was disqualified and placed second in the 2019 Jockey Club Gold Cup.
What makes for a live longshot?
Unfortunately for longshot players, this race has not been a hotbed for upsets with only seven $20 winners since 1999 – and four of those came in the first five years of the 25-year sample.
There have been only three $20 winners since 2004 and one of them, Raven’s Pass in 2008, was an accomplished European invader who won the race during one of the two events held on an all-weather surface. Three potential avenues for value are: three of the seven $20 winners were 3-year-olds, three of the seven were closers or closer/stalker types, and four placed (top three) but did not win their final prep race.
Odds and ends
It takes a fast racehorse to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, no shock given the gravity and prestige of the marquee race of the World Championships. The average winning Equibase Speed Figure for the winner from 1999 through 2023 was 121.1 with a median of 120, with a range of 113 to 130. A quality 3-year-old is a viable win candidate with eighth of the last 25 editions, or 32%, won by 3-year-olds facing older horses.
Most Likely 2024 Winners
I would imagine Draftkings Travers Stakes winner Fierceness and European invader City of Troy will be the top-two betting choices with Japanese invaders Forever Young and Ushba Tesoro perhaps not too far behind. Of these four, Fierceness stands out.
History would suggest Fierceness has a great shot to win. He’s a champion with three Grade 1 wins to his credit in terrific form with victories in both of his starts since the start of June. He’s a 3-year-old with tactical speed who enters off a win in New York Aug. 24 in the Travers Stakes at this 1 ¼-mile distance.
I’m less confident in City of Troy despite multiple positive trends because this will be his first start on a dirt main track. Raven’s Pass on the all-weather surface in 2008 is the lone European winner over the last 25 years, although Arcangues in 1993 authored the greatest upset in the history of the World Championships at 133.60-1 odds in his first start on dirt.
City of Troy is a Kentucky-bred 3-year-old by 2018 Triple crown winner Justify, he has won three Group 1 races since the start of June with no defeats, and boasts some tactical speed. The cruising speed he’s shown to date is probably a far cry from the type of early speed he would need on dirt to be within a few lengths early in the Classic. I’m hesitant to take a short price on a horse trying something for the first time, in this case racing on dirt against the best dirt routers in the world.
Forever Young finished third in the Kentucky Derby Presentee by Woodford Reserve in May and won his first start since then Oct. 2 in the Japan Dirt Classic. He’s not won at the Grade/Group 1 level and did not show in the Kentucky Derby the tactical speed that helped him win the United Arab Emirates Derby in March. Still, he finished third by a head in a gutsy race at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby was his lone defeat in seven career starts and he was bumped steadily in the stretch run. I’m a little worried that he might be closer to the back of the pack than within a few lengths of the pace, but I think his class is established despite the lack of a top-level win on his résumé.
Ushba Tesoro won the 2023 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline among three Group 1 victories and finished second in his most recent start, so he checks the class and form boxes. His lack of early speed hurt his chances last year in the Classic when he was fifth and entered the race on a six-race winning streak. He’s finished second in all three of his races this year. I believe Ushba Tesoro could win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but I would need a big price to back him, so he might fit more of the longshot mold in my view.
Likewise, I would want value to back Sierra Leone to win. He’s a Grade 1-winning 3-year-old closer with two wins, two seconds, and two thirds in six races. He enters off a third in the Travers and has not won any of his last four races. He also tends to be overbet.
Highland Falls has two wins and one second in his three starts since June. The Kentucky-bred colt by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin out of 2006 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Round Pond enters out of a Grade 1 win in New York, taking the Jockey Club Gold Cup by four lengths at this 1 ¼-mile distance. He’s shown more tactical speed with experience and he’s the best he’s ever been. I think he’s a strong win contender if you are looking beyond the obvious entrants.
Newgate earned his first Grade 1 win in March for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and was third by a head Sept. 28 in the Grade 1 California Crown Presented by SirDavis American Whisky, earning a 122 Equibase Speed Figure. That was his lone start since an unplaced finish in the Dubai World Cup in March and this 4-year-old with tactical speed could improve in his second start off the extended layoff at what figures to be a solid price.
With the Nov. 1 and 2 Breeders’ Cup World Championships coming toward the end of a long and challenging season, success at Del Mar will have everything to do with timing.
Some horses will show the wear and tear of the campaign and be unable to fire their best shot. For others, everything will come together at the precise moment when it is needed most.
While his path to the Breeders’ Cup has been anything but easy, including life-saving intestinal surgery due to a severe case of colic, everything about Carl Spackler’s story has that right-on-time feeling. He rolls into the $2 million FanDuel Mile Presented by PDJF for Bob Edwards’ e Five Racing Thoroughbreds with six victories in his last seven starts as part of a spree culminating in consecutive Grade 1 triumphs.
The 4-year-old, bred in Ireland, will always hold a special place in Edwards’ heart. Carl Spackler’s More Than Ready dam, Zindaya, provided e Five with its first winner. Edwards sent her abroad for a mating with accomplished sire Lope de Vega in hopes of producing a superior turf horse.
“We’ve had great success with turf horses. I like breeding turf horses,” Edwards noted. “I think you might get a little more longevity out of them.”
He and Chad Brown, the preeminent turf trainer in the United States, are looking to extend the success they have enjoyed on Breeders’ Cup grass. New Money Honey marked their first Cup winner together when she captured the 2016 Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita Park. They combined to win the same race with Rushing Fall a year later at Del Mar, which was hosting the World Championships for the first time. Edwards partnered with Stonestreet, the breeder, when Good Magic proved to be plenty good enough in the Juvenile that same season.
Those successes stemmed from hefty yearling purchases. It would be especially sweet if Carl Spackler could follow their lead as a homebred in what is very much a family affair. Tyler Gaffalione, his jockey, is married to Edwards’ daughter, Cassidy.
Carl Spackler showed vast potential from the time he arrived at Stonestreet Stable in Ocala to be broken. “As a 2-year-old, he acted like an older horse on the track,” said Ian Brennan, a Stonestreet trainer. “Like a lot of the good ones are, he was very forward and very professional.”
Edwards decided to have some fun with the name. Carl Spackler is best known as the gopher-obsessed assistant greenskeeper played by Bill Murray in the 1980 comedy “Caddyshack.”Despite encouraging early reports, Edwards made the prospect available at the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale. Brennan thinks weakness in the colt’s hind legs kept him from meeting his $499,172 reserve.
Edwards was soon delighted by the sale not made. Carl Spackler, unraced at 2, broke his maiden at second asking, going one mile on the Gulfstream Park turf, and he did it in style. He roared off by 8 ¾ lengths.
He followed his smashing victory with an uncharacteristic eighth-place finish in the American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs but rebounded to sweep his final two starts at 3 in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes and the Saranac Stakes. Both were at Saratoga.
The connections then shipped him from New York to Kentucky and looked to step up with a race at Keeneland. That was not to be. Carl Spackler developed a serious case of colic and eventually required intestinal surgery at Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington.
Edwards went from the high of knowing he had a 3-year-old that was on the verge of accomplishing big things to wondering whether the horse had any kind of future.
“You’re always concerned they don’t come back,” he said.
Edwards credits Brennan for playing a large role in one of the great comeback stories this season. Brennan combined the use of an Equicizer with a jogging regimen in the early going of what was a meticulous three-month process.
“He had plenty of foundation before I started galloping him again,” Brennan said.
It all paid off. The chestnut colt has been victorious in four of five starts this season while boosting his lifetime earnings to $1,568,475 through 10 starts in all.
Carl Spackler gives every indication that he is just beginning to show what he can do. He was as patient as could be for Gaffalione when he sat second in the Aug. 11 FanDuel Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga before taking command and scoring by 3 ½ lengths. His success in his first Grade 1 opportunity secured a fees-paid berth in the FanDuel Mile.
He made it to Keeneland without incident this time and displayed versatility by taking an early lead in the Oct. 5 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes and then holding off More Than Looks by one length.
“He just seems to be getting stronger, more confident in himself, more confident in his ability,” Gaffalione said. “He just keeps finding more.”
Edwards is grateful to have his son-in-law on his side. “It’s unbelievable to have a high-caliber jockey who is also a family member. It’s a big win for us,” he said. “We get to talk to him quite a bit about the horse. Obviously, he’s as excited as we are.”
Assuming the resilient Carl Spackler maintains his form, Gaffalione expects him to be right there in the Mile. “Obviously, he’s coming in off two big performances. He’s run against top horses, so I’m not really too scared of anyone,” he said. “I just hope for a good draw and a clean trip and let him do the rest.”
If this emerging talent that once appeared to be star-crossed enjoys good fortune, there may well be a family celebration deep into the Del Mar night.
The $2 million Grade 1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is a race that churns out champions. Year after year, almost without exception, the winner goes on to earn champion 2-year-old filly honors at the Eclipse Awards.
In many years, picking the Juvenile Fillies winner is as easy as betting the favorite – they win at a high rate. But sometimes predictability goes out the window and longshots surprise at huge odds, triggering massive payoffs.
Which type of outcome will we see in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Nov. 1 at Del Mar? History can help us answer that question. By reviewing the past results of the Juvenile Fillies, nine recurring trends become evident that we can use to identify the most likely winner:
Speed horses have an advantage
Horses with early speed are dominant in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Eleven of the last 15 winners (73%) were racing in first, second, or third place after the opening half-mile, including five who were positioned on the lead.
It’s also worth noting that Ria Antonio, who rallied from sixth place in 2013, only won the Juvenile Fillies via the disqualification of front-running She’s a Tiger, who set the fastest Juvenile Fillies pace fractions of the last 15 years.
Favor the favorite
Favorites have won the Juvenile Fillies at an astonishing rate. To be specific, they’ve won 19 out of 40 editions, or 47.5%. That’s much higher than the usual winning percentage for favorites, so bettors can feel good about backing the top choice in the Juvenile Fillies.
Avoid betting horses between 7.50-1 and 17.20-1
It’s not unheard of for major longshots to upset the Juvenile Fillies. We’ve seen eight winners go off at odds of 17.30-1 or higher, including (since 2013) Caledonia Road, Champagne Room, Take Charge Brandi, and Ria Antonia. The horses that almost never win the Juvenile Fillies, however, are midrange longshots going off at odds between 7.50-1 and 17.20-1. There’s only been one winner in this odds range in the history of the race and that was back in 2001 when Tempera struck at odds of 11.90-1. When betting the Juvenile Fillies, you want to back a short-priced contender (preferably the favorite) or a major longshot, but nothing in between.
Bet fillies who have raced one mile or farther
Sprinters who are unproven running one mile or farther rarely win the Juvenile Fillies. It has only happened once in the last 15 years, in 2012, when eventual four-time champion Beholder won the Juvenile Fillies in her first start running farther than seven furlongs. It’s wise to bet fillies who have run in at least one race over one mile or further.
Jockeys Joel Rosario and Mike Smith often prevail
Two jockeys that have ridden particularly well in recent editions of the Juvenile Fillies are Joel Rosario and Mike Smith. Both have ridden 13 times in the Juvenile Fillies and both have won three times.
Rosario’s success has come in the last half-dozen years, winning in 2018, 2020, and 2021. Smith’s success goes a bit further back with wins in 2008, 2015, and 2017. Four of Smith’s last five mounts have finished in the top three.
Grade 1 alums have an edge
It’s rare for a filly without experience competing at the Grade 1 level to win the Juvenile Fillies. The numbers don’t lie because 21 of the last 23 Juvenile Fillies winners had previously competed in a Grade 1 race. The two fillies who defied this trend, Awesome Feather and Dreaming of Anna, were undefeated winners of multiple non-Grade 1 stakes.
The takeaway? Bet fillies with Grade 1 experience. And if you’re going to bet against this trend, be sure you’re backing an undefeated stakes winner with potential to shine while stepping up in class.
The Frizette is the key prep race
Related to the statistic above, the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes in New York has been a pivotal steppingstone to success in the Juvenile Fillies, producing seven of the last 15 winners.
The Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes and Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Del Mar Debutante are other productive preps, producing four winners and three winners of the Juvenile Fillies the last 15 years.Outside post positions are an advantage
Don’t worry about betting fillies drawn in outside post positions because racing outside and in the clear is often a path to victory in the Juvenile Fillies with nine of the last 15 winners breaking from post six or wider. During the same timeframe, only three fillies breaking from post one have managed to record top-three finishes.
Don’t overestimate experience over the host track
The Breeders’ Cup moves around the country to a different track each year, so it’s natural to assume fillies with experience over the host track have an advantage in any given year. This actually has not been the case recently as 12 of the last 15 Juvenile Fillies winners were making their first start at the host track.
Conclusions
History paints a vivid picture of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Pending the post position draw, one filly stands out as the most likely winner: Scottish Lassie.
Scottish Lassie has shown pace-tracking tactical speed in both of her starts. After finishing third in her debut sprinting at Saratoga, she improved dramatically when stepping up in class for the one-mile Grade 1 Frizette Stakes, dominating her rivals by nine lengths.
Her impressive Frizette victory may establish Scottish Lassie as the Juvenile Fillies favorite. In any case, she’ll be a short price in the betting, much lower than 7.50-1. She fits the majority of our historical trends and should be mighty tough to beat even while competing at Del Mar for the first time.
Everyone has their own preference, but in my view the Breeders’ Cup Mile is essentially the perfect horse race.
I’ve always been partial to betting turf races and one mile on the grass is a terrific test of both speed and stamina. Add in the fact that the $2 million FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF draws elite international turf milers as well as top North American runners and the probability for an upset – five $50 winners in this race in the last 25 years – and it’s easy to see why the race is a highlight each year at the World Championships. Oh yeah, 17 of the last 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile have been decided by a length or less and only two were decided by two lengths or more.
Simply put, the Breeders’ Cup Mile typically is a great handicapping puzzle and the race itself rarely fails to live up to the hype.
For fans like me who love this race, for dedicated handicappers planning to bet all 14 World Championships races, and casual fans planning to watch and maybe wager a few bucks on it, there are significant trends to know when analyzing the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
Let’s take a closer look at the data from 1999 through 2023 and identify as many historical nuggets as possible to help pick the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Nov. 2 at Del Mar.
Steer clear of speed
Over the last 25 years, not a single Breeders’ Cup Mile winner was in first after the opening quarter-mile or the first half-mile in the race. In fact, only two of the 25 were first in early stretch (approximately an eighth of a mile to run). There were 10 runners in second place in early stretch, but pacesetters nonetheless are up against history in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
Eight of the 25 winners since 1999 were dedicated one-run closers and another five profiled as closer/stalker types. The lone horse with a real inclination to press for the lead was World Approval, who was 4-for-5 entering the race in 2017 and won by 1 ¼ lengths as the favorite.
Ten of the last 25 winners were 10th or worse after the first quarter-mile and 24 winners were third or worse after a half-mile.
Count on class
Sixteen of the 25 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners from 1999 to 2023 were established Grade/Group 1 winners and 15 of the last 17 had at least one win at that top level. Twenty-four of the 25 had won at the Grade/Group 2 level or higher with 73.20-1 longshot Order of Australia in 2020 at Keeneland the lone exception.
Look beyond last-out winners
For many Breeders’ Cup races, recent form is unequivocally the most important criteria in determining the winner. For the Mile, as mentioned above, established back class is more important than recent form.
Only seven of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners prevailed in their final prep race and only 12 of the 25 winners from 1999 to 2023 entered the race off of a win. Nine others entered off top-three finishes, including six who were beaten by a length or less, but four of the 25 were unplaced in their final prep race and three winners were seventh or worse in their most recent race.
Be a little more forgiving of a disappointing prep race when evaluating the Mile.
True milers race
The average distance raced by Breeders’ Cup Mile winners from 1999 to 2023 in the calendar year leading up to the World Championships is 8.25 furlongs, between one mile and 1 1/16 miles. The median is exactly the same.
Only one winner in the last 25 years raced an average distance longer than 8.8 furlongs and that was 73.2-1 longshot winner Order of Australia in 2020, also the lone horse without at least a Grade or Group 2 win.
Likewise, only one winner raced an average of less than 7.5 furlongs over the last 25 years, so look for true milers and not turf sprinters stretching out to a mile or longer-distance grass horses cutting back to a mile.
International event
Ten of the last 25 winners prepped for the Breeders’ Cup Mile in Europe and another three made their final pre-Breeders’ Cup start in Canada. Five of the last six winners were based in Europe.Seven Mile winners made their final prep in Kentucky – five in the Coolmore Turf Mile and two in the First Lady Stakes, both at Keeneland. The most recent winner of this race to come out of a New York prep race was Artie Schiller in 2005. Likewise, the last Mile winner to come out of a California prep race was Singletary in 2004, although California preps produced four Breeders’ Cup Mile winners in a six-year span from 1999 to 2004.
Of the seven 3-year-old winners over the last 25 editions, only War Chant in 2000 was not based in Europe, so give preference to international 3-year-olds over those based in the U.S.
Uncovering longshots
I would not consider the Breeders’ Cup Mile to be a true longshots’ race despite the average winning payoff of 12.5-1 over the last 25 years. That was skewed by $148.40 winner Order of Australia in 2020. The media winning odds of 5.1-1 are far more representative of a race in which 11 of the last 25 winners were 3.6-1 odds – slightly more than 7-2 – or less.
There have been, however, seven double-digit winners since 1999, including five that paid $50 or more for a $2 win bet.
Six of the seven entered the race off a defeat with only 26-1 European 4-year-old Domedriver entering the 2002 Mile off of a Group 2 win in France. Order of Australia was the lone member of this group with nary a Grade/Group 2 win on his résumé, having only won at the allowance level for elite European trainer Aidan O’Brien.
Singletary (16.5-1 odds, 2004), Miesque’s Approval (24.3-1, 2006), Court Vision (64.8-1, 2011), and Tourist (12.4-1, 2016) were U.S.-based runners who preferred to race off the pace and entered the Breeders’ Cup Mile off third-, fourth-, seventh-, and third-place finishes, respectively. The first two were Grade 2 winners and Court Vision and Tourist were Grade 1 winners.
French invader Domedriver profiled as a deep closer with an electric turn of foot and Karakontie (30-1, 2014) was a French classic winner at one mile who had fallen off form while trying to stretch out in distance.
Four of the seven were dedicated closers with the other three fitting into a closer/stalker or stalker profile, and all were at least 2 ½ lengths back after the opening half-mile.
These winners serve as a reminder to give a long look at all of the international runners, including the 3-year-olds, and at U.S.-based runners with back class coming out of disappointing races.The 2024 candidates
Unlike the first two races in this historical series – the FanDuel Juvenile Presented by TAA and the Longines Classic – the field for the Breeders’ Cup Mile is much more in flux. Without a firm grasp of which runners will be competing, let’s look at a few leading contenders and a couple of potential upset candidates.
The top domestic contender is Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes winner Carl Spackler. He won that race in front-running fashion but has wins from off the pace at both the Grade 1 and Grade 2 level. The 4-year-old by Lope de Vega reminds me a bit of World Approval, a miler getting very good at the perfect time, but I worry he might be too close to the pace and have little left in deep stretch to hold off a quality group of closers. He might be a better bet to fill out the exacta or trifecta.
California-based Grade 1 winner Johannes is 4-for-4 this year with a dominant win on the Del Mar turf in July in the Eddie Read Stakes. The stalker/closer is also 4-for-4 at this one-mile distance, but prepping in California has not been fruitful for this race in the last 25 years.
Four-year-old filly Gina Romantica won the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes Presented by UK Healthcare for the second straight year Oct. 5 at Keeneland. Six fillies have won the Mile in the last 25 years and Gina Romantica was far from outclassed last year in the Mile when closing for fourth, beaten by a length, at Santa Anita.
An interesting upset candidate might be Rogers Woodbine Mile Stakes winner Win for the Money if he is overlooked coming off his first graded stakes win for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse.
More Than Looks closed with a powerful rush from far back in the Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes to finish second to Carl Spackler, but he has not won a race above Grade 3. Several other talented U.S.-based horses that prefer to race on or near the lead that I would probably avoid in the Breeders’ Cup Mile should they compete in the race include Del Mar Mile Stakes winner Conclude, Woodbine Mile runner-up Filo Di Arianna, E.P. Taylor Stakes winner Full Count Felicia, and Mint Millions Stakes winner Goliad.
The international contingent could be quite strong this year. Charles Appleby has been a force in the U.S. in recent years — he has won the last three editions of this race and sports a sparkling record of 10 wins with 20 total starters at the Breeders’ Cup — so his Group 1-winning miler Notable Speech much be respected. Three-year-old filly Porta Fortuna has won three straight Group 1 races at a mile, defeating older females in the last two. Six Perfections in 2003 and Goldikova in 2008 shipped over from Europe to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile as 3-year-old fillies and were similar mid-pack type runners.
Ramatuelle, by Justify, also is a European 3-year-old filly who won a seven-furlong Group 1 race in France in October and finished third by a neck in the QIPCO One Thousand Guineas earlier this year. Porta Fortuna has gotten the better of her on a couple of occasions, but she is a classy filly.
Ten Happy Rose is a Japanese Group 1 winner at a mile and might be a bit overlooked after prepping for this race with a seventh-place finish in a turf sprint in her first race in four months. Another possible contender from Japan is Geoglyph, a Group 1 winner at 3 who has not won a race since 2022 but showed some signs of life in his most recent start. He should be a massive price.
Aidan O’Brien’s Diego Velazquez enters off a Group 2 win at a mile, while that trainer’s Mountain Bear made the trip to the U.S. for the Coolmore Turf Mile and rallied for third behind Carl Spackler and More Than Looks. Both would be quality contenders but I prefer other international runners unless I was getting significant value on the toteboard.
A couple of additional intriguing longshots from among the international possibles are Prague, winner of a Group 2 race at Newmarket going a mile in his fifth career start; and Rogue Millennium, a Group 2 winner in 2023 with multiple Group 1 placings this year for trainer Joseph O’Brien.
Assessing the potential contenders for the $2 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff is a challenging endeavor. The annual 1 1/8-mile race for fillies and mares attracts a substantial field, comprising numerous proven Grade 1 winners.
The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, scheduled for November 2 at Del Mar, adheres to the customary format. The prospective field includes one Eclipse Award winner (Idiomatic) and a near-certain future Eclipse Award winner (Thorpedo Anna), along with several other Grade 1 winners and a few challengers from Japan.
To identify the most likely victor, analyzing recent history of the Distaff can provide valuable insights. The following six trends can assist in selecting the filly or mare with the greatest probability of success:
Consider late-running horses
Contrary to the perception that the Distaff favors horses with early speed, it is an exception. Notably, 14 of the last 20 Distaff winners (70%) raced outside the top three after the opening half-mile, including nine (45%) positioned no closer than sixth place.
Furthermore, in the last two decades, only one Distaff winner has led after the opening half-mile. Therefore, it is prudent to consider late-running horses, particularly those in the midpack or deep closers, as they often outperform speed horses in this race.
Occasionally, a longshot emerges victorious in the Distaff, such as the 49-1 Marche Lorraine in 2021. However, it is far more frequent to observe short-priced horses reaching the winner’s circle. Favorites have claimed 17 out of 40 editions of the Distaff (42.5%), while horses starting at odds below 5-1 have emerged victorious in 29 out of 40 editions (72.5%). Furthermore, 37 of the last 48 horses (77%) to finish in the Distaff top three commenced at less than 10-1 odds.
Do not overlook horses that have experienced defeats
While it can be reassuring to wager on Distaff contenders who have prevailed in their previous starts, it is not uncommon for horses to triumph in the Distaff following a preparatory race defeat. Over the past two decades, 11 Distaff winners exited a victory, while nine entered the race after a defeat.
Proven Grade 1 winners possess a formidable advantage in the Distaff
Proven Grade 1 winners have emerged victorious in 17 out of the last 20 editions of the Distaff. Two of the horses that defied this trend (Unrivaled Belle and Pleasant Home) had achieved second-place finishes against Grade 1 competition on multiple occasions.
Older mares possess a slight edge, but do not disregard 3-year-olds
It is more prevalent for fillies and mares aged 3 and above to triumph in the Distaff; they have secured 29 out of 40 editions. However, 11 victories for 3-year-olds are commendable considering their typical numerical disadvantage against older horses. At least one 3-year-old filly has achieved a top-three finish in the Distaff in 12 of the last 14 years, rendering them a viable option, particularly when considering trifectas.
Saratoga Race Course in New York hosts some of the most prestigious summer racing events, and it is noteworthy that fillies and mares who have competed at Saratoga tend to perform exceptionally well in the Distaff Stakes in the fall. Specifically, a remarkable 12 out of the last 20 Distaff champions (60%) have emerged victorious after competing at Saratoga in the year of their Breeders’ Cup triumph.
The Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes stands as one of Saratoga’s most significant Distaff preparatory races. Over the past decade, notable contenders such as Idiomatic (2023), Malathaat (2022), Forever Unbridled (2017), Stopchargingmaria (2015), and Royal Delta (2012) have utilized the Personal Ensign as a stepping stone to Distaff success.
As outlined in the introduction, a substantial field is anticipated to compete in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Key contenders include the defending champion Idiomatic, a five-year-old mare who recently secured a resounding victory in the Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes. Additionally, Thorpedo Anna, a sensational three-year-old filly with four Grade 1 wins to her credit this year, is also a formidable prospect. Both horses competed at Saratoga during the summer and will start at odds well below 5-1 in the betting. From a historical perspective, there are several compelling reasons to support their chances.
However, there is a potential challenge: Idiomatic and Thorpedo Anna possess similar speed-oriented running styles. Idiomatic has consistently achieved her victories in a gate-to-wire fashion, while Thorpedo Anna routinely presses the early pace. Historical evidence suggests that their running styles may not be optimal for the Distaff, particularly if they engage in a premature pace battle, which could lead to an arduous race.
Consequently, bettors should consider Raging Sea as an alternative. During the summer at Saratoga, the four-year-old filly overcame a speed duel in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes to emerge victorious against Idiomatic by a head.
Raging Sea subsequently secured a late-running triumph in the Grade 2 Beldame Stakes, marking her third consecutive graded stakes victory. Raging Sea’s running style is well-suited for the Distaff, and her proven Grade 1 success (including at Saratoga) further enhances her appeal from a historical standpoint. If she is offered odds of under 5-1 in the betting, then historical evidence suggests that Raging Sea is the most probable winner of the Distaff.
The weekend racing fans wait for all year long is almost here as the top horses in the country and many from around the world will travel to Del Mar for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup. The action kicks off on Future Stars Friday, Nov. 1, with five races for 2-year-olds: the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, the John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, as well as the two most prominent 2-year-old races that will be run all year, the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance.
USA Network and FanDuel TV will both televise the first day of this year’s Breeders’ Cup. USA Network coverage will take place from 4-8 p.m. ET / 1-5 p.m. PT and will include two undercard races and the first four Breeders’ Cup races. FanDuel TV coverage of the entire Friday program will begin at 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT with the first undercard race. Continuous coverage of all Breeders’ Cup races on Friday plus the two preceding undercard races will stream live on Peacock.
Let’s take a look at some key things to know about the Future Stars Friday Breeders’ Cup races.
$1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Distance: Five furlongs on turf
Post time: 5:45 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, daily double, pick 3, pick 5, all-turf $3 pick 3
Background: This newest Breeders’ Cup race is no Johnny come lately anymore. It will be run for the seventh time in 2024. Trainer Michael Appleby won this race last year with multiple stakes-winning Irish invader Big Evs, who was this race’s second European winner in a row after trainer Charlie Appleby won in 2022 with Mischief Magic. Trainer Wesley Ward has won three of the prior six runnings of this race but is without a contender in 2024.
Favorites: Michael Appleby is seeking his second win in a row with Big Mojo, who exits a second in the same Irish prep race won by Big Evs last year. The horse that beat Big Mojo in that race, Aesterius, is also a major contender. Turf sprint ace trainer George Weaver saddles perhaps the top U.S.-based challenger, three-time stakes winner Governor Sam.Interesting storylines: European invaders have swept the exacta in this race in both of the last two years. In the only prior running of this race at Del Mar in 2021, Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. guided the filly Twilight Gleaming to victory ($12.40 to win) atop a 12-horse field.
$2 million NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Distance: 1 1/16 miles on dirt
Post Time: 6:25 p.m. ET
Wagering menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, daily double, pick 3, pick 4, special Juvenile Fillies (Friday) – Distaff (Saturday) daily double
Background: One of Friday’s “original seven” Breeders’ Cup races along with the Juvenile, the Juvenile Fillies has been a staple of the Breeders’ Cup since the event’s inception in 1984. The winner of this race is almost always voted the Eclipse Award champion 2-year-old filly, including all of the last 10 winners up through Just F Y I in 2023.
Favorites: The 2024 Juvenile Fillies favorite likely will be one of the three winners of the key final prep races for the Juvenile Fillies. This trio includes Scottish Lassie who won the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont at the Big A, Immersive who won Keeneland’s Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes, and Non Compliant, who won the Oak Leaf Stakes Presented by Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park.Interesting storylines: This race is typically not friendly to chalk with only three favorites winning the past 13 years including Echo Zulu in 2021, Songbird in 2015, and My Miss Aurelia in 2011. Last year’s favorite, Tamara, finished seventh in a 12-horse field, and 2022 favorite Chop Chop finished last.
$1 million John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Distance: One mile on turf
Post Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Wagering menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, daily double, pick 3
Background: Somewhat surprisingly, the Juvenile Fillies Turf has been dominated by U.S.-based fillies in its 16-year history since first being run in 2008. Meditate, who won this race for trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore in 2022, is one of only three European invaders to win along with Flotilla in 2012 and Chriselliam in 2013.
Favorites: One of the reasons the Europeans often strikeout in this race is because they sometimes don’t send their top-caliber 2-year-old fillies to the Breeders’ Cup. That’s not expected to be the case this year thanks to O’Brien’s Lake Victoria, who has begun her career in sensational fashion with four wins in four starts including two Group 1 victories. Lake Victoria tops of a trio of O’Brien toughies that also includes Heavens Gate and Bubbling. If the North American runners hold serve again this year, it could be thanks to Thought Process, who exits a win in Santa Anita Park’s Surfer Girl Stakes.
Interesting storylines: Trainer Chad Brown has been the dominating force in this race’s history with six wins in the 16 prior runnings of the race including last year’s winner Hard to Justify, who joined Brown’s past win parade that included Newspaperofrecord (2018), Rushing Fall (2017), New Money Honey (2016), Lady Eli (2014), and Maram (2008). This year, Brown’s hopes will rest on the runner-up from the Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes, Virgin Colada.
$2 million FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance
Post Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Wagering menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, daily double, special Juvenile (Friday) – Classic (Saturday) double
Background: Arguably the featured race on Future Stars Friday, the Juvenile has been one of the Breeders’ Cup’s marquee events since the first edition in 1984. Featuring the best and most precocious 2-year-old colts and geldings, the Juvenile is the place where the search unofficially begins for next year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner. Most Juvenile winners, including Fierceness in 2023, Forte in 2022, Corniche in 2021, and Essential Quality in 2020, have gone on to win the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old.
Favorites: Top challengers will include Keeneland’s Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity winner East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick, the back-to-back Grade 1 winner of both the Hopeful Stakes and Champagne Stakes. Trainer Bob Baffert also will send out two top contenders with his American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse winner Citizen Bull and his Del Mar Futurity winner Gaming likely to be among the favorites.
Interesting storylines: The Juvenile has not been a good predictor of Kentucky Derby winners. Only two winners in the history of this race won the Derby the following year, Street Sense in 2006 and Nyquist in 2015. Will the 2024 Juvenile produce some of the principal contenders for the 2024 Triple Crown? Let’s see. Optimistic fans can point to the 2022 Juvenile where the third- and fourth-place finishers, National Treasure and Blazing Sevens, missed the Derby but did come back to run 1-2 in the 2023 Preakness Stakes. 2020 was another good year for the Juvenile which produced several future stars including the winner Essential Quality, plus Hot Rod Charlie, Jackie’s Warrior, and Rombauer. On the flip side, the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile failed to yield one single starter in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Fierceness, the winner of the 2023 Juvenile, was the only horse in the race to make it to this year’s Kentucky Derby, where he finished 15th. Thankfully for his fans he later made up for it when he won the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes this summer at Saratoga, and he’s now a leading contender for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 2.
$1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Distance: One mile on the turf
Post Time: 8:25 p.m. ET
Wagering menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, special Juvenile Turf (Friday) – Turf (Saturday) daily double
Background: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf was first held in 2007 – one year before the start of the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Unlike in its filly counterpart on the Breeders’ Cup card, Europeans have historically done very well in this race with wins in 12 of the first 17 editions. Euro dominance was on full display in 2023 when Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore connections ran 1-2 with Unquestionable and Mountain Bear. In the 2022 Juvenile Turf it was more of the same when Victoria Road, representing Coolmore, beat Silver Knott, representing Godolphin, by a nose in a thriller. The last American win in the Juvenile Turf was in 2020 when Fire at Will pulled off the upset for Mike Maker, but even then, Europeans still managed to finish second, fourth, and fifth.
Favorites: This year’s Juvenile Turf favorites could end up being the 1-2 finishers coming out of the Grade 1 bet365 Summer Stakes at Woodbine – winner New Century and runner-up Al Qudra. Both are European imports who already have the benefit of that prior North American outing under their belts.
Interesting storylines: Counting Unquestionable last year, O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore have teamed up to win six times in 17 prior runnings of the Juvenile Turf, so whichever horse they show up with will be considered by many to be the horse to beat in 2024. Mentee, winner of the Grade 3 Futurity Stakes at Belmont at the Big A for trainer Todd Pletcher in his last start, is the full brother to 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Fierceness. Mentee will look to follow in his big brother’s success – sort of. While Fierceness, also trained by Pletcher, earned his Breeders’ Cup glory on the dirt, Mentee will try to make a name for himself on the grass.
The day racing fans and horseplayers wait for all year for is almost here. The Breeders’ Cup Saturday program will feature the international equine and human stars of horse racing, all ready to square off in nine championship races on Saturday, Nov. 2 at Del Mar.
The event will be headlined by the richest horse race in North America, the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Television coverage on NBC and Peacock will feature 2 1/2 hours of live programming from 3:30 - 6 p.m. ET / 12:30 - 3 p.m. PT featuring four Breeders’ Cup races ending with the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. Peacock will provide continued coverage of the final four Breeders’ Cup races starting at 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT. These races will also stream live on BreedersCup.com and Breeders’ Cup social media channels. USA Network will televise live coverage from 2 - 3:30 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. PT covering one undercard race and the first Breeders’ Cup race. FanDuel TV will televise the first three undercard races and all of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races, except the Classic.
Here are some of the details you need to know about Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races.
$1 million PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Distance: 7 furlongs on dirt
Post time: 3 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, double, Pick 3, Pick 5
Background: The Filly & Mare Sprint debuted in 2007 when the Breeders’ Cup expanded past eight races for the first time. In 17 prior editions of the Filly & Mare Sprint, no horse has won the race wire-to-wire. After no 3-year-old won the race during its first decade of existence, sophomore fillies won three in a row in 2018, 2019, and 2020. This is relevant for 2024, a race very likely to feature a 3-year-old favorite.
Favorites: Top 3-year-old filly sprinter Ways and Means owns three big wins in a row, including the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga Race Course, and looks like the real deal. Another 3-year-old — Southern California-based stakes winner One Magic Philly — is also a leading contender. Society, who will need to buck this race’s bias against front-runners, has made only two starts in 2024 but will be one of the favorites based on her win in the Grade 1 Ballerina Handicap at Saratoga.
Interesting Storylines: The horse in this race ridden by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is often the horse to beat. Irad has won four of the last seven editions of the Filly & Mare Sprint with wins in 2017, 2018, 2022, and 2023. The Filly & Mare Sprint will have a new champion in 2024 after the race was ruled the past two years by Goodnight Olive.
$1 million Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Distance: 5 furlongs on turf
Post time: 3:41 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, double, Pick 3, Pick 4, All-turf Pick 4
Background: First held in 2008, seven of the first 10 runnings of this race were held at about 6 ½ furlongs on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita until the race morphed into a 5 or 5 ½-furlong dash the last seven years. At Del Mar, it is always run at the distance of five furlongs. Southern California-based trainers once ruled this race, but no SoCal stable has won it since Peter Miller’s most recent of three wins in 2019.
Favorites: There will be plenty of really fast horses in the 2024 Turf Sprint, but the race should come down to a power match-up between America’s best and Europe’s finest. Cogburn has lit up U.S. competition this year with a perfect 3-for-3 record, while Bradsell has been first or second in top-level Group 1 turf sprints in England, Ireland, and France at five furlongs in his last three races.Interesting Storylines: Last year’s Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Big Evs will attempt to become a Breeders’ Cup winner in two different divisions, a feat that’s only been accomplished by seven horses in history. Golden Pal pulled off the Juvenile Turf Sprint/Turf Sprint double back-to-back in 2020-’21.
$2 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Distance: 1 1/8 miles on dirt
Post time: 4:21 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, double, Pick 3, Pick 4, All-dirt Pick 4, Distaff - Classic Daily Double
Background: The Distaff, which for a brief time in its history was also referred to as the Ladies’ Classic, has a long list of Hall of Fame-caliber fillies and mares among its winners, including champion females like Princess Rooney, Lady’s Secret, Personal Ensign, Bayakoa, Paseana, Ashado, Zenyatta, Beholder, Monomoy Girl, and many more all the way up to last year’s winner, 2023 champion older dirt female Idiomatic.
Favorites: Thorpedo Anna is the clear leader of the 3-year-old filly division based on multiple wins including the Longines Kentucky Oaks and Saratoga’s Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. She will square-off against undefeated Japanese invader Awesome Result, who comes in with a 7-for-7 record and looks to follow in the footsteps of Japan’s Marche Lorraine, who scored an upset in the Distaff in 2021.
Interesting Storylines: Throughout its history, the Distaff has been a race defined by its memorable 3-year-old versus older female headline matchups, but in recent years the 3-year-olds have lost a bit of traction. A 3-year-old filly has won the race only four times the last 19 years. This would seem to indicate that star 3-year-olds seem to have their work cut out for them unless there’s a truly special one in the bunch, like Thorpedo Anna appears to be.
$5 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf
Distance: 1 ½ miles on turf
Post time: 5:01 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, double, Pick 3, Pick 4, mandatory payout Pick 6
Background: The $5 million grass feature of the Breeders’ Cup card always attracts an international field of turf aces, and this year will be no exception with more than half of the pre-entered horses hailing from overseas, including as many as five from the barn of Aidan O’Brien. Since English Channel won in 2007, only three U.S.-based horses have won the Turf: Little Mike in 2012, Main Sequence in 2014, and Bricks and Mortar in 2019.
Favorites: The Turf will feature plenty of overseas talent including a very familiar face, 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Rebel’s Romance. He had a sub-par season in 2023 but is back with a vengeance this year with three Group 1 wins to his credit. He will try to become only the third two-time winner of the Turf and first since Conduit in 2008-’09. British-based trainer Brian Meehan will seek his third career Breeders’ Cup Turf win with improving 3-year-old Jayarebe. American hopes rest mainly on the shoulders of Far Bridge, who comes into this race off consecutive Grade 1 wins in the Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga and the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes at Belmont at the Big A.Interesting Storylines: Trainer Aidan O’Brien ended a six-year drought in this race when he won with Auguste Rodin last year to give him seven career wins in the Turf plus six seconds and five third-place finishes. If O’Brien wins the Turf again, he’d build upon his record to be the first trainer ever to win a Breeders’ Cup race eight times. He can accomplish that with any one of his entrants, Illinois, Luxembourg, and Continuous, plus Content and Wingspan, who both are cross-entered in the Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf.
$7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic
Distance: 1 1/4 miles on the dirt
Post time: 5:41 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, double, Pick 3, mandatory payout Pick 5
Background: The Classic is the showcase race of the day. With a purse of $7 million, the Classic is one of the world’s richest races and will have the highest purse of any race run in North America. The world’s best dirt horses compete at the classic distance of 1 ¼ miles in a race that impacts several Eclipse Award divisions, including older dirt male, 3-year-old male, and Horse of the Year. A who’s who of American greats from the past 40 years have won this race including Sunday Silence (1989), Cigar (1995), Tiznow (2000-’01), Curlin (2007), Zenyatta (2009), American Pharoah (2015), Gun Runner (2017), and Flightline (2022) just to name a few.
Favorites: The field of contenders in 2024 is deep and diverse. The Classic will feature the winners of so many of the year’s top dirt races for older horses, including Arthur’s Ride (won the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes), Highland Falls (Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes), and Senor Buscador ($20 million Saudi Cup). The most talented horse in the race may be 3-year-old DraftKings Travers Stakes winner Fierceness, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner who got his career back on the winning track this summer at Saratoga capped-off by his victory in the Grade 1 Travers.
Interesting Storylines: Many foreign-based horses have attempted to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic through the years and, with a couple of notable exceptions, they have been unsuccessful. The last horse to do it was Raven’s Pass in 2008 when that year’s Classic was run on an all-weather surface. The only foreign winner of this race on a dirt track was back in 1993 when Arcangues posted the biggest upset in Breeders’ Cup history, paying $269.20 to win on a $2 bet. Despite all of that, some of the top 2024 Classic contenders will be shipping in from overseas, including City of Troy, who has been one of Europe’s top horses this year and could be tough to beat if he handles his first-ever assignment on a dirt track. Japan-based Derma Sotogake, Ushba Tesoro, and Forever Young also are all considered serious contenders. Forever Young just missed winning the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve by a head.
$2 million Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Distance: 1 3/8 miles on turf
Post time: 6:25 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, double, Pick 3, Pick 4
Background: First held in 1999, the Filly & Mare Turf marked the Breeders’ Cup’s first expansion from its original seven-race program. For more than a decade, this race has been dominated by two groups of horses: 1) foreigners, which have won seven of the last eight including last year’s winner, Inspiral, or 2) horses trained by Chad Brown, which have won the race four of the last 12 years. Brown will be without an entrant in 2024. The last North American horse not trained by Brown to win the Filly & Mare Turf was Perfect Shirl for Roger Attfield way back in 2011.
Favorites: Content does not enter the Filly and Mare Turf with the kind of form that you would expect to make her the favorite in this race since both of her last two races resulted in big defeats, but both of those races were on soft turf. Content won her most recent race on firmer ground in the Pertemps Network Yorkshire Oaks and will get strong support on Del Mar’s firm turf course. Trainer Charles Appleby will have 3-year-old Cinderella’s Dream ready after two wins in New York this summer.Interesting Storylines: Full Count Felicia beat the last two Canadian Horses of the Year, Fev Rover and Moira, in her big wire-to-wire win last time out at Woodbine when she opened up a 19-length lead on the field at one point in the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor Stakes and never looked back. She could employ similar tactics in this spot. Veteran 7-year-old mare War Like Goddess, who owns 12 career wins and finished third versus males in the Breeders’ Cup Turf in 2022, will push her career earnings past the $3-million mark with a finish of sixth or better.
$2 million Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Distance: 6 furlongs on dirt
Post time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, double, Pick 3
Background: The Sprint is an “original seven” Breeders’ Cup race that has always been held at its current six-furlong distance. Jockeys Jose Ortiz and Irad Ortiz Jr. have had a monopoly on this race in the 2020s, with Irad winning in 2023-’24 aboard Elite Power and in 2020 aboard Whitmore. Jose won in 2021 aboard Aloha West. In two prior editions of the Sprint at Del Mar, the winners were Aloha West and Roy H (2017). Aloha West was based in the Midwest and was exiting a second-place finish in his final prep in the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland while SoCal-based Roy H exited a win in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes.
Favorites: The 2024 Sprint is loaded with contenders and is a race any of the principals can win based on their best effort. Mullikin is 4-for-4 this year and exiting a Grade 1 win in Saratoga’s Forego Stakes. Skelly has been at or near the top of the division all year, but he’s settled for second in three in a row, including in the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap at Saratoga, where he lost to Nakatomi, who is back in the Sprint this year after a solid third-place Sprint finish in 2023. Federal Judge and Raging Torrent both have surging form and can’t be ignored.
Interesting Storylines: The Sprint in the decade of the 2010s was a race mostly ruled by speed horses that raced on or close to the lead (no more than 3 ½ lengths back at any time). The last four runnings of the Sprint, however, have been won by late runners including Elite Power, who closed from seventh to win in both of the last two editions. Whitmore came from seven lengths out of it to win in 2020, and Aloha West was victorious in 2021 after getting off to a tardy beginning and needing to rally from mid-pack. Several of this year’s top challengers are speed horses expected to contest the pace. Will the Sprint set up for another off-the-pace runner in 2024? Nakatomi sure hopes so.
$2 million Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF
Distance: 1 mile on turf
Post time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, double
Background: As one of the original seven Breeders’ Cup events, and with a $2 million purse, the Mile is guaranteed to draw an international all-star field. It seems that the North American horses used to hold their own in this race much more frequently than they have recently as European connections have won five of the last six years. Trainer Charles Appleby and Godolphin won the last three years with jockey William Buick aboard all three winners: Master of The Seas in 2023, Modern Games in 2022, and Space Blues in 2021. You can hardly cross out the Americans when scoping out the Mile winner, however, because horses based in North America have won the race 22 times with a list of winners that includes some of American middle-distance turf legends like Lure, Da Hoss, War Chant, and Wise Dan.
Favorites: Chances for a fourth straight win for Appleby in 2024 will rest with Notable Speech, a multiple Group 1 stakes winner this year who should appreciate Del Mar’s firm turf. The big-name American contender in the field will be Chad Brown’s Carl Spackler, who topped the turf mile division with wins in the Grade 1 FanDuel Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga this summer and in the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland this fall. The Southern California home team will be well represented by Johannes, who is a perfect 4-for-4 this year.
Interesting Storylines: The front-runner or any horse involved in the early pace almost never wins the Breeders’ Cup Mile. With the exception of Hall of Famer Lure in 1992-’93, no other pacesetter has ever won the Mile down through its long history. Tepin in 2015 was as close to the pace as any horse since Lure when she pressed the pace just a length behind the early leader. She joined Kip Deville in 2007 and Goldikova in 2008 as Mile winners who’ve employed the pace-pressing running style. When you look at the history of the Mile, you will notice that the overwhelming majority of the winners used a late-closing or a stalking running style en route to victory. In the last 15 editions of the Mile since 2009, only Tepin and World Approval in 2017 were within three lengths of the front at the first call. Last year’s winner Master of The Seas closed from 12th in a 13-horse field.$1 million Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Distance: 1 mile on dirt
Post time: 8:25 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5
Background: This race was first held at the 2007 Breeders’ Cup, but the Dirt Mile has more recently gained in stature the last few years to truly become one of the headline events of the Breeders’ Cup program thanks to marquee winners like City of Light in 2018, Knicks Go in 2020, Life Is Good in 2021, and especially Cody’s Wish back-to-back in 2022-’23.
Favorites: Perhaps not the favorite, but the horse to beat may turn out to be Domestic Product, who exits a win for trainer Chad Brown in Saratoga’s seven-furlong, Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes and also has won this season around two turns.
Interesting Storylines: Seize the Grey, the winner of the 2024 Preakness Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby, will try to put his name into contention for the 3-year-old Eclipse Award if he can add a third Grade 1 victory in the Dirt Mile.
After a dozen races in the past 24 months, is Tapit Trice still a work in progress or much closer to a finished product as he approaches the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday?The 4-year-old colt’s important duo of Todds -- Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and majority owner Mandy Pope’s racing manager Todd Quast – agree that the son of Tapit may be ready to deliver a career-defining performance in North America’s richest race. Pope went to $1.3 million to purchase the gray yearling bred by now-partner Gainesway Thoroughbreds and has watched him emerge as a very talented runner. He has won six of his 12 starts – four of them in graded stakes – and has earned $1,733,650.
Even with that success there have been some not-so-satisfying outings: seventh, beaten 9 ¼ lengths in the Kentucky Derby (G1); fifth by 8 ¾ lengths in the Haskell Stakes (G1) following a good third in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Quast and Pletcher said that he has been blessed by time, has learned his lessons well and is in top form. Following a long layoff, the Classic will be his fourth start of the season. He returned with a win-as-he-pleased romp in Monmouth Cup (G3), missed third by a nose in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Saratoga and earned his Classic berth with a win in the Woodward Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct
“He is a typical Tapit, and I say that in a good way, in that they have quality, and they can run,” Quast said. “They're unbelievably good athletes, but they also can be a little mental. And this horse, through his 3-year-old year and things like that, it took him a little bit of time to figure it all out.
“At first, he wouldn't really want to go inside horses. At other times, he got stopped because he has this huge stride and he wouldn't get rolling again. It just took him time to figure out some of the races. You look at the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) race. He came from way out of it and he didn't have the best trip, and he still won on a track that usually doesn't bode well for horses with his running style, but it did. Then here comes the Blue Grass (G1), and he actually gets a perfect trip, but he learned a little bit more, how to go inside, how to go outside, how to come.”
After Tapit Trice finished a solid third in the 2023 Travers (G1), he was given a break from training and sent back to Pope’s Whisper Hill Farm. It was a working vacation.
“When he came back to run this year, it was a different horse,” Quast said. “We had him back at the farm. We worked on some of those attributes of going inside horses and stopping and starting and things like that. And then he came out of the box after an 11-month layoff and did what he did at Monmouth. He was very mature, handled it very well.”
Led The first -- and only -- time Karl Glassman attended the Breeders’ Cup World Championships was in the fall of 1995 and he watched future Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott saddle future Hall of Fame horse Cigar to victory in the Classic at Belmont Park.
On Saturday, Glassman – who said he never has missed the Breeders’ Cup races on television – will be back in person, and he’ll again see Mott saddle a horse in the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Twenty-nine years later, the Breeders’ Cup experience will be a lot different for Glassman. Much different.
Glassman owns the horse that Mott is bringing to Del Mar for the weekend’s biggest race. Arthur’s Ride, the striking, nearly all white 4-year-old, will represent Glassman and Mott in the Classic starting gate.
This will be the first horse Glassman has had in the Breeders’ Cup.
“To know that Bill is taking our horse to the Breeders’ Cup … I just don’t have words,” Glassman, who owns the horse with his wife, Cathi, said from his home in Stuart, Florida. “It’s starting to get to be nervous time. We got the saddle cloth the other day and Cathi and I looked at each other and just started laughing. How did this happen?”
Arthur’s Ride is named for Karl Glassman’s father, Arthur, who passed away in 2022 at the age of 91. Arthur Glassman, a child of the Great Depression, told his son many times in his final days that he had had a “great ride.” The name of the best horse Glassman has owned made perfect sense.
Karl Glassman, 66, and his wife formed Glassman Racing in 2015. Arthur’s Ride gave them their biggest thrill in August when the son of Tapit won the prestigious Whitney Stakes at Saratoga. It was the first Grade 1 win for the Glassmans. He said they have about 28 horses in training, half of them with partners.
Now they are taking aim with Arthur’s Ride at one of racing’s largest prizes.
“They are very nice people and are excited to have a horse that is able to run in these races,” Mott said. “I think he knows how tough it is. He has watched, he knows the game. He knows enough about it to know that it’s not easy.”
“The last thing we do is take anything for granted,” Karl Glassman said. “I try not to think about it but when do allow myself to think about it, I can’t even imagine the feeling. That high from the Whitney is something I don’t think we will ever come down from.”
Arthur’s Ride jumped straight from an allowance race – a win by 12 ¾ lengths – to a front-running score in the Whitney, his first stakes race. That up was followed by a down when Arthur’s Ride, the 4-5 favorite, led early but faded late in a fifth-place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), also at Saratoga.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup was four weeks after the Whitney.
Arthur’s Ride, bred in Florida by Joseph and Helen Barbazen and Tapit Syndicate, was a $250,000 purchase at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. He has won four of eight career starts, three of five this year. Junior Alvarado, who has ridden Arthur’s Ride in all five starts this year, will be the pilot in the Classic.
“I could see where he could possibly regress a little bit in the Jockey Club Gold Cup although I thought he was good enough to do it,” Mott said. “He regressed a little bit and now he has had a little more time to recover. I look for him to come back in the Breeders’ Cup a little bit.”
A truly international affair became even more international this year when the Breeders’ Cup meeting attracted a record-breaking 80 international pre-entries Oct. 23, 20 more than the previous record.
Each Breeders’ Cup race has at least one international pre-entry, though the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile is the second preference for probable Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic runner Derma Sotogake.
USA Network and FanDuel TV will both televise the first day of this year’s World Championships with USA Network’s coverage taking place from 4-8 p.m. ET / 1-5 p.m. PT, concluding with the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. FanDuel TV coverage will begin at 2 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. PT and cover the whole card. Peacock will be streaming all the Breeders’ Cup races as well.
On Saturday, USA Network and Peacock will air coverage of one undercard race and the first Breeders’ Cup race from 2 - 3:30 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. PT. NBC will air four Breeders’ Cup races from 3:30 - 6 p.m. ET / 12:30 - 3 p.m. PT, concluding with the Classic, during a national telecast that also will be streamed on Peacock. Live coverage continues on USA Network and Peacock from 6-8 p.m. ET/ 3-5 p.m. PT.
FanDuel TV will televise the first three undercard races and all of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races, except the Classic, with BreedersCup.com also streaming live races throughout the day. Breeders’ Cup in the UK and Ireland can be found on ITV4, Sky Sports, and Racing TV; and racing fans in Japan can follow the action on Green Channel.
Before the fun kicks off, read below to learn about some of the international horses you should pay attention to during the Breeders’ Cup.
Friday
The Archie Watson-trained Aesterius looks to be a big threat in this race with all six of his starts coming at the same distance with four wins. His only non-top two finish came at Royal Ascot where he finished fifth against fellow European entrant Shareholder in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes, but he’s clearly put that behind him with three stakes victories since that race. A question mark is that he has never run on ground as firm as he’ll be facing here and his two losses both came when he ran on ground labeled “good to firm,” which is even softer than he’ll find in California.
Japan is careful in what they send to the Breeders’ Cup, so any horse entered should be taken seriously. Ecoro Sieg is the country’s representative in this race and trained by Hideyuki Mori, who has plenty of experience at the Breeders’ Cup with nine entrants since 2000 – though none in this race and all but one coming on dirt. Ecoro Sieg is lightly raced with only two starts, but both were impressive with a combined margin of victory of 7 ½ lengths. He has only raced at six furlongs instead of the five here, but with his margins of victory, it doesn’t look like a shorter distance should be a problem.
A small rivalry is brewing between Whistlejacket and Shareholder with each taking away a win from their two head-to-head meetings. Shareholder won the first match up when he won the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes in June and Whistlejacket finished fourth. The duo met up in the six-furlong Group 1 Prix Morny in August with Whistlejacket taking home the win and Shareholder finishing ninth. Whistlejacket has much more experience with seven starts to Shareholder’s three, though both have run just twice at five furlongs – Shareholder won both of those and Whistlejacket has a win and a fourth at the distance. Firmer turf shouldn’t be a problem for Shareholder, but Whistlejacket’s only two runs on good to firm ground have results in losses.$2 million NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
American Bikini represents Japan here, but her sire is a name most fans will recognize — 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The filly is coming into the race off a 2 ½-length stakes victory in September going seven furlongs. That win came one start after winning by seven lengths in a five-furlong maiden race. She will be stretching out an extra furlong and a half in this race, but with American Pharoah as her sire, the distance shouldn’t be a problem.
Otomena Shacho also has shipped in from Japan after breaking her maiden by five lengths in September going six furlongs. She has the same distance questions herself, but her pedigree shows that she should be able to handle it. Her dam (mother) is by Curlin, a two-time Horse of the Year who won the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic, while her sire Speightstown is known to sire longer-distance runners as well.
If you’re looking for a horse to finish second at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, Fiery Lucy may be your girl. The filly broke her maiden back in June and has been consistent in her races since then, but possibly frustrating for her owners as well. She comes into the Breeders’ Cup off of three straight runner-up finishes, including at the one-mile distance that she’ll run here. In fact, Fiery Lucy has finished second in four of her six starts overall and is rarely far behind the winner as she’s been within 1 ½ lengths of the winner in those four runner-up finishes.
Undefeated Lake Victoria is looking to give Aidan O’Brien his second win in this race after he won in 2022 with Meditate. It won’t be a surprise if Lake Victoria ends up in the winner’s circle here. She hasn’t taken a step wrong with a pair of Group 1 victories on her record in her last two starts. The one question circling her past performances is if the one-mile distance will work for her. She hasn’t given any signs that an additional furlong from the seven furlongs she’s already tackled would be a problem, but that extra furlong between sprint distances and the mile has proved a challenge for other successful sprinters.
Japan has a strong contingent headed to the Breeders’ Cup this year and fields two runners in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Ecoro Azel is the more experienced of the two with two starts. He does come into this race off a fifth-place finish in which he finished behind Juvenile Fillies entrant American Bikini, but he won his career debut in July by 2 ½ lengths. He is by a Breeders’ Cup runner-up in 2019 Breeders’ Cup Sprint second Shancelot, so the distance may be a problem, but his dam did win at just over a mile, so she gives him some added stamina.
Shin Believe will be the most inexperienced runner in the World Championships with just one start, but that one race was an impressive one. The colt bred in Kentucky broke his maiden at an even farther distance than this race, and he did it winning by five lengths. Shin Believe is the only horse pre-entered in this race to stretch past the Juvenile distance.$1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Aomori City is one of two pre-entries for Godolphin in this race as they look for their fourth Juvenile Turf victory, the most recent coming with Modern Games in 2021. This Oasis Dream colt will be stretching out to a mile for the first time, but he did win a Grade 2 at seven furlongs two starts ago. His first attempt at a Group 1 win came last out when he was fourth, but Godolphin seems to be willing to put that behind him and entered him alongside Al Qudra, who was second in the Grade 1 bet365 Summer Stakes going a mile last out at Woodbine.
Highly regarded in Europe, Henri Matisse wasn’t a fan of soft ground last out when he finished outside the top two for the first time in his fifth race. The colt finished second in his first Group 1 attempt before that but had registered wins in each of his first three starts to kick off his campaign. This will be his first attempt at a mile, but that shouldn’t be a worry as his sire won this race last year with Unquestionable.
New Century comes into this race with an advantage over other European runners. He won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes in Canada last out to get both experience and a victory in a North American race. If he’d been targeted here even without that start, he would have been an interesting prospect because he already had a win at a mile on firmer turf in Europe. This also is the next installment of a budding rivalry between this runner and Al Qudra. Al Qudra finished second to him in the Summer Stakes, but had defeated him both times they faced each other in England. Noriyuki Hori-trained Satono Carnaval is the Japanese representative in this race and comes into it off a four-month break. He is an interesting entrant because he will be going past seven furlongs for the first time. He showed plenty in his debut going seven furlongs with a seven-length win in June before winning by 1 ¼ lengths in the Grade 3 Hakodate Nisai Stakes on July 13, prevailing as the favorite in both starts.
Saturday
The consistent Believing is still searching for her first Grade/Group 1 victory and is hoping to find it here. The George Boughey trainee has had plenty of chances to break through at the top level this year with six Group 1 runs and has been second in two of her last three attempts but just hasn’t been able to break through. Unfortunately for her, the horse who beat her both times she was second, Bradsell, is also running here.
Another horse who beat Believing this year is Big Evs, who is looking to win his second Breeders’ Cup race after a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last year. If he pulls off the double, he’ll be the second Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint-Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner after Golden Pal in 2020 and 2021. Big Evs has made four starts this year with two victories and a third-place finish. His only unplaced finish came last out when he was eighth behind fellow pre-entrants Bradsell, Believing, and Starlust.
This race will be the swansong for Bradsell, who will retire to stud after the Breeders’ Cup. Bradsell has been one of the best sprinters in Europe this year with two Group 1 victories in three Group 1 starts this year and three wins from four starts overall. He’s coming into this race off a second-place finish in a French Group 1, but that was on soft turf — something he almost certainly won’t see in California — so can be easily forgiven.
Japan is a perfect one-for-one on winners to starters in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and this year their Awesome Result holds first preference in the race. A daughter of Justify, Awesome Result is following her sire’s lead by staying undefeated and is aiming to keep that record intact after Saturday’s race. Awesome Result has raced exclusively in stakes since last November and won all four of those – including a five-length victory in the Breeder’s Gold Cup to round out her Breeders’ Cup prep.
Japan also has Alice Verite holding second preference here and first in the Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf. The 4-year-old filly has made all her starts on the turf and comes into the Breeders’ Cup with three wins and two seconds in six starts this year – including a two-length victory in the Group 3 Mermaid Stakes two starts ago.
Emily Upjohn was originally given first preference in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, but trainer John Gosden announced that she’d compete in the Turf instead due to race distance. Emily Upjohn isn’t a stranger to the 1 ½ miles she’ll be tackling, she’s raced at the distance in nine of her 15 career starts with five top-three finishes at it. Taking on males also won’t be a concern for the 5-year-old Sea The Stars mare, who won against them in a Group 1 at this distance in Europe.
Luxembourg is one of those horses who can show up with a big win … when he’s in the mood. But even if he’s not, you can usually count on him to finish well. The 5-year-old has finished in the top three in 11 of 18 starts and has won a Group 1 in each of his four seasons on the track, with his win this year coming at the same distance as the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Luxembourg has a trainer with plenty of experience in this race: Aidan O’Brien has won seven editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, including last year with Auguste Rodin.
After missing the Turf last year, 2022 winner Rebel’s Romance returns looking for another win. Now a 6-year-old, the Dubawi gelding has been just as good as ever in 2024 with Group 1 wins coming in three different countries and a third-place finish coming in a fourth for his only 2024 defeat. Rebel Romance will be making his fourth U.S. start here – and first in 2024 – but will be tackling California turf for the first time, although that shouldn’t be a problem.
Aidan O’Brien has sent 17 different horses to the Breeders’ Cup Classic and come close to winning it with a few of them, but still has yet to visit the winner’s circle in this race. The trainer is taking another shot at it with City of Troy. He’s last year’s European champion 2-year-old colt and has raced exclusively on turf, but he is by 2018 U.S. Triple Crown winner Justify. He hails from a family that is full of turf runners, though it does include 2008 Santa Anita Handicap winner Heatseeker, who ironically is by the O’Brien-trained Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Giant’s Causeway.
Forever Young’s only career defeat came in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve a few months ago when he was third and he’s back to avenge that loss here. Only a head away from winning the Derby, Forever Young received a long break after the race and came back on Oct. 2 to knock off the rust. That race was a victory with Forever Young winning the Japan Dirt Classic by 1 ¼ lengths. Japan has had five Breeders’ Cup Classic starters but has yet to secure a win in the race, however, they continue to bring horses better and better suited to this race and Forever Young fits the mold
Ushba Tesoro is another Japanese runner and has raced all over the world this year. He’s taken on some of the biggest dirt races in the world in the Saudi Cup, Dubai World Cup, and most recently the Nippon TV Hai, finishing second in all three. He was also a Breeders’ Cup Classic runner last year, finishing fifth by 3 ¼ lengths after taking a similar path with a win in the Nippon TV Hai as his final prep after winning the 2023 Dubai World Cup.
Cinderella’s Dream is one of the racehorses Charles Appleby had based in the U.S. this summer and that campaign has worked out well for her and her connections. The Shamardal filly wintered in Dubai, where she continued a four-race win streak that started in May of 2023 in England, before aiming for the Group 1 One Thousand Guineas in England. That race was the first defeat for Cinderella’s Dream, who finished seventh. She then headed to the U.S, where she proved to be a force against her own age group with wins in the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes and Fasig-Tipton Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes. She’ll be going farther than she ever has before in this race, but that shouldn’t be too much of a worry with what she’s shown already in the U.S.Soprano’s first race in the U.S. was a second in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Presented by Dixiana last month, although she did finish six lengths behind the winner. The filly was third by just 1 ½ lengths in her previous start in Ireland before coming here, but a big worry may be that the Queen Elizabeth was her first start past a mile and she’ll be going an extra quarter-mile farther than that race the Filly & Mare Turf.
Aidan O’Brien’s entries in this race include Wingspan, who is looking for her first Group/Grade 1 victory. She isn’t the strongest runner O’Brien has brought to Filly & Mare Turf, but she always runs a solid race. Her record includes a pair of seconds in two tough races her last two starts to tie up a record that has seen her finish off the board just once in six races. O’Brien has run 19 horses in this race but has only won it with one: Tuesday in 2022.
Don Frankie comes into the Sprint off a half-length victory in the Cluster Cup in August as one of three starts in 2024. The 5-year-old by Daiwa Major started his season stretching out to a mile for the first time in an experiment that didn’t go well with a ninth-place finish before shipping to Dubai. There, he finished second in the Grade 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen — granted, it was 6 ½ lengths behind the winner — before being given a nearly five-month break. His last two starts were both at the six-furlong distance of the Sprint, a distance he has had plenty of success at with three wins and two seconds in five starts.
Lani became a fan favorite when he came over from Japan for the 2016 Triple Crown. Eight years later, his son Remake is making his U.S. debut in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. A consistent runner with 14 top three finishes in 18 starts, Remake has won two of his three starts this year and was fourth in his only loss. This will be the fourth country he’s traveled to in 2024 with wins coming in Grade 3 races in Saudi Arabia and Korea and a fourth in Dubai.
After two off-the-board finishes in his last three starts, this year’s Two Thousand Guineas winner Notable Speech is looking to get back to his winning ways in this race. Despite those two off-form performances, Notable Speech is a strong contender for Godolphin as the winner of five of his seven career starts. Those starts even included a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race earlier this year, but his connections opted for the aforementioned British classic instead of Kentucky. The 3-year-old has raced exclusively at a mile in various conditions, so whatever he faces in California shouldn’t be an issue.
One of the best 3-year-old fillies in Europe is Porta Fortuna, whose only misstep this year was a second by a neck in the One Thousand Guineas to start her year. That runner-up performance came in her first start after finishing second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and since the One Thousand Guineas she’s been perfect. Trainer Donnacha O’Brien has run her exclusively in Group 1 races since August of last year and the filly has never finished worse than third with three straight victories coming into the Breeders’ Cup MIle.
Japanese Group 1 winner Ten Happy Rose looks to get her second Group 1 win in her last three starts. The 6-year-old mare’s connections dropped her down to six furlongs for her final Breeders’ Cup prep in a race that can probably be viewed as a true prep because of the distance and the fact that she lost by only three lengths in her first start in 17 weeks. Ten Happy Rose only has one win at a mile, but she has finished in the top three in four of her eight tries at the distance, so it wouldn’t be too big of a surprise to see her finish in the top three.
Leslie Sarf attended a horse race for the first time as a little girl at Aqueduct Racetrack and was immediately taken by the breathtaking speed and whirlwind of color as jockey silks flashed before her eyes.
The marriage of fleet-footed Thoroughbreds with pallets of earthy neutrals and bright vivids inspired Sarf to paint the scenes that unfolded before her on afternoons with her father at New York’s racetracks.
“I had no interest except that I liked to paint and it was beautiful to paint,” Sarf said. “It grew on me as a child, and it became a hobby. I had some exhibits in the south at Aiken (South Carolina) and sold some paintings to Chris Antley years ago. I came to love the sport.”
Flash forward to 2024, and no colors shine brighter in Sarf’s eyes than the blue and gold silks of her and her husband’s LSU Stables, which were carried to two Grade 1 victories this year by their star turf router Far Bridge. Now, the Christophe Clement-trained 4YO son of English Channel looks to follow in the footsteps of his father in taking the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).
LSU Stables is the moniker of Leslie and her husband, Larry, also a lifelong fan of racing. The two immediately bonded over their love of racing and went on their first date at Belmont Park in 1967. While their meeting seemed as if it were fate, so did their private procurement of Far Bridge in early 2023 after the colt went 2-for-2 at Gulfstream Park to start his career.
“I suggested to my husband to go on our first date to Belmont,” Leslie Sarf said, with a laugh. “From there, I became a tournament bridge player, and when my husband was looking at this horse and told me the name, it was meant to be.”
Serendipitous it was as Far Bridge immediately rewarded his owners handsomely for their investment, moving to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher to finish a close second in two graded events before a breakthrough score in the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) at Belmont Park.
Far Bridge leads the charge for the American-based contenders in the 1 1/2m Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf, entering off Grade 1 wins going a mile and a half in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic on Sept. 28 at Belmont at the Big A, and the Sword Dancer on Aug. 24 at Saratoga Race Course, making him the highest-earning horse LSU Stables has campaigned with more than $1.7 million in the bank.For Sarf, nothing means more to her than the ways in which Far Bridge has brought their family together on the world’s biggest stage for horse racing, where she and Larry will be joined by their son Randy, among others.
“We’re excited, nervous, amazed, that this would ever happen to us. It was always just for fun, and if we did well, we did well,” Sarf said. “It has been a dream come true just to get to the Breeders’ Cup and all our grandchildren are coming down. We’re nervous for the draw on Monday night and hope he gets a good post position, but que sera, sera. We’re grateful to be there and we’re walking on air, no matter what happens.”
Chad Brown-trained Carl Spackler (IRE), named after the iconic “Caddyshack” character, has been tearing up the turf this season and heads into the $2 million FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) as not only the leading American contender, but also as a possible Eclipse Award candidate with a victory.
“He was an Irish-bred horse, so any opportunity to have fun with the name, we took,” Edwards explained. “Obviously, Caddyshack, Carl Spackler, being a turf colt — it kind of all lines up — and we did the same thing with the sister Sandtrap and named her in the same vein. Hopefully, you’ll see it now in pedigree lines for years.”
Fresh off consecutive Grade 1 victories in Saratoga’s Fourstardave and Keeneland’s Turf Mile, the son of Lope de Vega is a home-grown product of Bob Edwards’ e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and part of a mindfully executed operation that has been especially successful at the Breeders’ Cup.
“It’s a very cool experience because he’s out of my first winner, Zindaya, a horse I picked up out of the November Sale and put back into training with Chad,” Edwards said. “She went on to win the Intercontinental -- my first win ever and just my second race as an owner. It makes it even more special to have that whole connection since Day One, especially tying in that my son-in-law, Tyler Gaffalione, rides the horse and we’ve now won consecutive Grade 1s.”
Edwards, whose affability equals his acumen, has an enviable record of three wins, a second and third, from five World Championships runs. All three of his wins have been at California Breeders’ Cups: New Money Honey (2016) and Rushing Fall (2017) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Good Magic (2017) in the Juvenile.
“I’ve had great guidance with (bloodstock advisor) Mike Ryan and Chad has been a big part of our success, especially our Breeders’ Cup run, and our boutique breeding operation, where we have 15 mares, has done well,” Edwards continued. “I made the conscious effort of sending Zindaya out to Europe because I was over at Tattersalls looking at European horses maybe nine or 10 years ago and I liked what I saw. We ended up breeding her to Frankel - Lope de Vega – Frankel - Lope de Vega. The Frankels sold well and the Lope de Vegas—one is Carl Spackler and the other is Sandtrap, who came in second in a stakes last weekend and we think she might be special. We do spend a lot of time on the breeding angle and that has paid off, while that same angle helps us short-list horses.”
Carl Spackler has been a force this season, progressing sharply, including a stalk-and-pounce dismantling of the Fourstardave and then a gate-to-wire win from the outermost post in the Turf Mile.
“Tyler feels that he’s just starting to figure it out and we have yet to see his best,” Edwards said. “Going into the Fourstardave, we weren’t even getting 50 percent of this horse — he was just playing around and having fun — and then in the Coolmore (Turf) Mile, he kicked it up a notch and wired the field, which he had never done before. He’s getting more dynamic, which shows he’s a special athlete.”
The Mile, which has been won 18 times by Europeans, including the past three years by UK-based Charlie Appleby trainees. Edwards is keenly aware that this is Carl Spackler’s toughest task to date and sees Appleby’s Notable Speech (GB), Aidan O’Brien’s Diego Velazquez (IRE), locally dominant Johannes and Donnacha O’Brien’s Porta Fortuna (IRE) as his main competition in “a scary group.”
“One really cool thing is that Porta Fortuna is part-owned by Steve Weston, who’s responsible for getting me into horse racing in the first place,” Edwards said. “We were business partners and we sold a business, then he retired and I went back into business after retiring for about 45 days — youngest guy on the golf course. My wife and I went up to Saratoga one time and Steve invited my family over to see his horses on the backside. Then we ended up going to the auction, where he introduced me to Niall Brennan, who wound up introducing me to Mike Ryan. Mike walked around with us the whole afternoon not even knowing who we were and a couple days later, we bought a horse. If it wasn’t for Steve, I wouldn’t be in racing and now we are racing against each other in our horses’ biggest races of their careers.
“We’re excited to get there and have some fun and the Breeders’ Cup does an amazing experience for all the connections involved,” Edwards concluded. “My family and I are looking forward to it.”
Arthur’s Ride, Classic. Despite a disappointing performance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, his attractive odds in Saturday’s big one suggest he’ll have less competition due to recent speed type losses. His previous two starts for trainer Bill Mott look promising. This talented 4-year-old could be brave if allowed to lope freely.
Isivunguvungu, Turf Sprint. South Africa’s Breeders’ Cup record is 0-for-2, but this veteran sprinter could make history. Turf racing in South Africa is underrated, and this 6-year-old gelding was consistent at five furlongs carrying high weight. Brought to Graham Motion’s barn specifically for this race, he made his America debut a winning one at Colonial Downs. I expect him to outrun his odds against a strong field.
Moira, Filly & Mare Turf. The Europeans and War Like Goddess will be tough, but sleeping on this Canadian champion would be a mistake. She’s 0-for-2 in this race the past two seasons, but she ran well if unlucky. Flying under the radar, she looks better this year as a 5-year-old. The added distance won’t hurt her chances, and she’s a mare I believe can win a big one.
More Than Looks, Mile. This lightly raced son of More Than Ready should fire his best shot in his third race of the year. He rallied well last year but should do better this time. Carl Spackler beat him twice, but a stronger pace may turn the tables. Win or lose, he’s a great bet to rally into the exotics.
Nakatomi, Sprint. With so much speed, I’ll look for horses who can pass. Nakatomi, listed as a favorite, lost 5 1/2 lengths at Keeneland. His odds will rise to 8-1 Saturday. He ran third last year and will pass tired pacesetters.
Post Time, Dirt Mile. This Maryland-bred is proven at the Grade 1 level and around two turns. He’s consistent and appreciates solid early paces. After tough assignments, he won last time at Laurel Park. The son of Frosted should be in the mix.
Remake, Sprint. While Nakatomi will come from mid-pack, this Japan-based runner will be farther back. He’s proven in several countries and does his best flying down the stretch at six furlongs. Coming off a strong return, he should be ready. If the pace is hot, his late kick may be irresistible.
Shahryar, Turf. He lands below Rebel’s Romance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but he looks like a big threat. He was a good third last year at odds of 25-1. Though he’s winless in three starts this year, his form is good, including a second to the favorite in Dubai. After a freshening, he got solid prep against good company in Japan. He’s best at 12 furlongs and has big wins.
Zeitlos, Filly & Mare Sprint. She’ll face a step up in class, but she’s in career best form. Her win at Keeneland was her strongest race, and she had four straight wins on dirt. With Society setting a strong pace, she should rally late. I’m not sure she can beat all the Grade 1 material, but she has a chance to run well late.