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Pick Pony | May 16, 2024, 9:22 p.m.
The Dinner Party Stakes was first run at Pimlico in 1976. After sporadic attempts, it was moved to an annual G2 class race. In 2023, it was reclassified as a G3 event.
The Dinner Party Stakes (aka “the Dixie”) is a 1 1/8-mile race run on turf, restricted to three-year-olds and older. This year, it will be the 12th race on the card, immediately preceding the 149th Preakness. This year’s race promises to be a solid Grade 3 stakes race.
The Dinner Party Stakes is held annually in mid-May at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. It is the eighth-oldest graded stakes race in the United States. First run as the “Dinner Party Stakes” when Pimlico Race Course opened in 1870, it was named for the 1868 dinner party in Saratoga Springs, New York, where Maryland Governor Oden Bowie and others met and wagered, resulting in the building of the Pimlico race course for Thoroughbred racehorses. The inaugural event was won by Preakness, for whom the Preakness Stakes was named.
Highland Chief is a Grade 1 winner of Belmont Park’s Man O’ War two years ago in his second start after running in England. He’s one of the faster horses in the group, but his speed has steadily declined. His E2 and late pace are also trending down. This is a telltale sign of an aging horse and, sadly, is why Graham Motion has dropped him into a shorter route.
His works have been slow which gives us little hope that his second race after a layoff will pay dividends. Toss.
English Bee has excellent speed but has been inconsistent lately. His speed shows a slight upward trend, but his LP pace is declining fast. His latest works have been decent, but his inconsistent performance makes us think this 8-year-old has seen better days. Toss.
Balnikhov’s speed is improving ever so slightly, but a decline in mid-pace is worrisome. He’s in the top quartile speedwise, and in any other G3 race, we’d be hard-pressed not to put him in the money, but this year’s Dinner Party Stakes is exceptionally strong. He’ll finish slightly out of the money.
Atone was a Grade 1 winner at Gulfstream Park’s $1 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational last year with ten top-four finishes in graded stakes. Unfortunately, his performance is waning despite what seems to be good runs on paper lately. We don’t think he’ll duplicate his March 23 performance we saw in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Park and certainly won’t come close to what he showed us in January at Gulfstream Park. We believe he will finish out of the money but admit that he could surprise us. Anyone with $1.4 million in earnings deserves consideration. If a good overlay develops, consider sneaking a few pennies on him.
What is going on with Running Bee’s latest works? Nothing if you consider who he’s running against. We can’t argue with Chad Brown anyway. We’ve tried before - and lost.
He’s not the fastest horse in this race, but rising pace all around is a good sign, especially that steep improvement in E2 pace.
This route might be a tad bit long for him, but his 4f works hint that Chad is not concerned. Against our better judgment, we’re giving him the Show spot, mainly because we’re scared of Chad.
Crabs N Beer is so slow they could probably shoe him mid-race, and we’d never even notice. Trainer/Jockey ROI is the lowest of the group, speed is flat, and early pace is plummeting. We can only hope that half the gates get stuck when the bell sounds. Toss.
Adhamo is a Grade 1 winner of the 2022 United Nations Stakes. He has the fastest average speed of this group, but that has been declining for several races now. AI predicts a bounce up, but will it be enough? We think there’s a decent chance Prat Flavien can guide him to an in-the-money finish. Top of the board? You bet. An overlay might make this one a real moneymaker.
Helms Deep could try to set the pace, but with such a slow leader, it would lead the rest of the field into a sleep-inducing coma. Possibly, English Bee will take over for him and push the envelope a bit. And don’t let those strong works fool you. The only horse slower than Helms Deep is Crabs N Beer. Toss.
Beatbox has turned in some of his fastest career runs lately, and this route distance suits him well. His works may be tedious, and his days between races are growing longer and longer, but this 6-year-old’s speed and late pace are still rising. We have hope but not total confidence that he can make the board. We’ll put him close to in the money but bail out at the slightest hint of trouble.
Emmanuel is merely average in all respects. Flat speed, flat pace, and inconsistent performance. There’s no middle ground with this one. He either wins or loses big. But Todd Pletcher has him in the Dinner Party Stakes for a reason. And Irad Ortiz wouldn’t accept a bad ride. Emmanuel is our #4 pick.
The rapid rise in speed we see with Eons isn’t enough to make us ignore his declining E2 and LP pace. Toss.
Strong works catch our eye. Rising E1, E2, and LP pace make our eyes water. But that explosive upward trend in speed nearly made us fall out of our chairs. Despite his 3rd place finish in the Kentucky Cup Classic (G3), we wish we could discount the result because Funtastic Again seemed to be unstoppable before that race. But then he was stopped by none other than Atone. Therefore, we can’t give him the win - this time. But we will give him a Place position on the tote board. And with a massive overlay, you can thank us later.