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Pick Pony | April 19, 2024, 9:25 p.m.
The Elkhorn Stakes is an American Thoroughbred horse race classified as a Grade II. The race is for horses aged four years and older and is run over a marathon distance of 1 1/2 miles on the turf. It's hosted every year in early April at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky as part of the spring meeting. The current prize money for the race is $350,000.
The event is named after Elkhorn, an area where Daniel Boone is thought to have first set foot in present-day Kentucky during a hunting trip. The name also relates to Elkhorn Creek, a stream that runs through multiple counties in Central Kentucky.
The gray in this horse’s name refers to his color with no subtle nod toward aging. He’s certainly not showing his age yet. In fact, he won at this distance on turf at Keeneland last April, then turned in a blazing performance at Belmont. One month later, he floundered at Saratoga.
It is difficult to discern what happened in replays of the Saratoga race, but certainly, The Grey Wizard was bumped hard at the start. Unfortunately, about the time this late-pace runner could make his move, a horse in front stumbled, lost its rider, and caused The Grey Wizard to pull up sharply. Then came the long layoff. Something was amiss other than unfortunate lousy luck.
Works have been outstanding, and despite the disastrous Saratoga race, speed is trending up. However, trainer Graham Motion has not proven effective when returning from layoffs. Thus, we cannot put The Grey Wizard in the money. However, a surprise showing wouldn’t surprise us. He could come in with an overlay, which may make him an attractive bet.
King Curlin’s speed is wildly inconsistent but easily predictable. We suspect a drop in speed in this race, and despite an outstanding performance in his last race and a favorable race shape for this presser, we don’t think he has enough to finish in the money. However, if his performance matches his last outing, his outlook will be forever changed.
At some point, Highland Chief has to start showing his age. His return after more than a year away concerns us. But this Irish-bred legend could be the one to beat Bold Act.Ignore the 9th-place finish in April 2022. This was nothing more than a prep race for his stateside debut and was followed by a string of amazing runs, that is, until November 2022, when he finished 12th out of 13 entries. Something was wrong, and a long series of grueling works hints at recovery.Still, declining speed and slowing late pace lead us to believe he will finish out of the money - but just barely.
Make no bones about it: Irish-bred Bold Act from Godolphin Stables is the one to beat. But the prodigy of New Approach is beatable - if he has a bad day.
Bold Act won the G3 Sycamore Stakes at this distance on the Keeneland turf six months ago. We suspect the odds won’t be in our favor, which will make him a bad bet. But it wouldn’t hurt to key some action on this one if the overlay develops.
Dynadrive won at this distance on turf in January at the John B. Connally Turf Cup Stakes in Texas. However, that was Texas, and things are, ahem, much different there. Michael Maker knows how to win, but that stunning speed we saw in Houston was an oddity. An overlay could make him an attractive bet, but unless you ship him back to Texas, it’d have to be over the top to convince us to chip in.
Rapidly improving speed means little when you’re the slowest horse in the race. There’s nothing to get excited about here. Toss.
This is Winning Spirit’s first import outing, and he’s coming off a long layoff. But nobody is going to fly a horse halfway around the world unless you expect to win—and a win is certainly within this colt’s grasp. We see nothing but improvement ahead for Winning Spirit and expect he’ll arrive in even better form than last year when he proved he could run with the big boys even then. We’re putting Winning Spirit just slightly out of the money with the possibility of a surprise performance.
Will blinkers off and a six-month layoff make Foreign Relations more consistent? His speed is trending upward sharply, but his pace is falling, especially E2. He’s performed poorly at the G2 level, too. Toss.
Despite having the best trainer in the race, poor Lucky Curlin can’t make it on the board. His speed is declining, as are all pace numbers. We’re going to presume the exceptional performance we saw from Lucky Curlin in the last race was befitting his name—pure luck. Toss.
Missed the Cut won at this distance on turf in his first attempt last month, proving himself at this distance. But he’s never started from out in no-man’s land. That outside post might not work to his advantage. However, if anyone can make the best of a bad situation, it’d be Irad Ortiz. A decline in speed is overshadowed by improving form and sharp works. We think the last spot on the board will be a battle between Missed the Cut and Winning Spirit - and Missed the Cut will come out on top.
Silver Knott hails from the dominating Godolphin stable, which is enough to merit consideration alone. Trained alongside Bold Act by Charles Appleby, Silver Knott could explode from the gate, negating that awful 11th-post position. This is a horse that knows how to win in much tougher races than this one. Strong works that have peaked at just the right time, exceptional early pace, improving speed, and rapidly increasing pace - what’s not to love? We’d give the gold medal to Silver Knott if it weren’t for that pesky teammate of his.
1. Bold Act 2. Silver Knott 3. Missed the Cut 4. Winning Spirit 5. Highland Chief 6. King Curlin 7. The Grey Wizard 8. Foreign Relations 9. Dynadrive 10. Luck Carlin 11. Wentru
The Ben Ali Stakes is a U.S. race for thoroughbred horses that takes place every Spring at the Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. Open to horses aged 4 and older, this Grade III race covers one and three-sixteenth miles on dirt and offers a $300,000 purse.
The race takes its name from James Ben Ali Haggin (1822–1914), a lawyer who struck it rich in the California Gold Rush. Haggin invested a large part of his wealth to build the world's largest horse breeding farm, Rancho Del Paso, near Sacramento, California. He also owned Elmendorf Farm in Lexington, Kentucky, spanning thousands of acres of prime Kentucky bluegrass. Haggin was a prominent breeder of top-class racehorses and a dedicated supporter of the sport. He owned Hall of Famers Salvator and Firenzi.
The ninth race of the day will feature nine worthy contenders and we admit, is one tough race to handicap.
And in this corner… This will be the third time Time for Trouble faces off against War Campaign. Their record stands at 1-1, meaning this race is the tiebreaker—and Time for Trouble has the preferred inside post. He may arrive as the favorite, too.
His works, as always, are very strong, but his speed is beginning to flatten. We think War Campaign will get the best of him again. Time for Trouble will make the board, but not as the winner.
The biggest concern we have with Surly Furious is - he only performs well on synthetic tracks. His works are strong, and although his speed shows some flattening, his late pace continues to improve. But you know who else loves to gobble up the competition after they’ve been beaten down? Kingsbarn and War Campaign. This will likely put Surly Furious slightly out of the money.
Smile Happy got a bit too big for his britches and was gelded prior to this start. Trainer Kenny McPeek says he is “a challenge every day.” Just look at his works - he’s so ornery they have to train him away from the other horses.
Lacking focus, we think this could be his last race (hey, he’s earned his owners $1 million, so he certainly deserves a nice retirement). But could the gelding retain more energy than he normally would expend during pre-race when he acts like an ass? Did I mention that McPeek has won the Ben Ali three times already?
Still, the gelding may be too little too late. Smile Happy can’t even beat Happy American, one of the slowest horses in the race (they’ve faced off twice, and Smile Happy lost both times).
A lot of handicappers like this one. We don’t. We think he’ll finish somewhere in the middle. Far enough back to toss.
Kingsbarn will come into the Ben Ali Stakes as the favorite. He’s won four out of six races and placed second in the fifth one. The bizarre, one-off 14th place (out of eighteen) in May 2023 was just that - a one-off. Kingsbarn was outclassed and just couldn’t hold up to the fast pace. Todd Pletcher knows how to fix oddball glitches like that.
His speed is fading, but he’s still young and has a lot to learn. We think he’ll finish in the top two but will go in as the favorite, almost certainly making the morning line an underlay.
Laughing boy has been erratic in his last two outings. How erratic? He has nearly the lowest average speed rating of any horse in the race but clocked the highest speed rating in his last race.
His early pace is blazing fast and still improving, while his late pace is trailing off. He’ll finish just slightly out of the money but could make a good longshot bet if the overlay looks right.
No speed. Like none. Why is he here? Toss.
Kingsbarn isn’t Todd Pletcher’s only entry in this race. Although he’s clocked the fastest speed of any horse in this race and adores this distance, his speed has been erratic and tapering off. Can Todd Pletcher fix this? We think he can - and did. We’re putting Dynamic One in third.
Works are slow, speed is falling off a cliff, and his late pace is plumetting. Toss.
Most handicappers believe if Kingsbarn can’t take it, War Campaign will. He took 2nd in the Essex Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn Park on March 23. However, the winner of that race was none other than G1-class First Mission. Can he perform well on anything other than a sloppy, muddy track to take his first stakes victory? Trainer Phil Sims thinks so:
“I think he fits well in this race. Saturday’s race is a mile and three-sixteenths, and he has won at a mile and a quarter.”
In fact, rumors say Sims almost entered War Campaign in a G2-level race (Oaklawn Handicap).
The outside post makes us nervous, but we think he’ll overcome it. We’re taking War Campaign for the win over Kingsbarn by a nose.
1. War Campaign 2. Kingsbarn 3. Dynamic One 4. Time for Trouble 5. Surly Furious 6. Laughing Boy 7. Smile Happy 8. Happy American 9. Archie the Giza