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Pick Pony | April 16, 2024, 7:01 p.m.
Let’s face it—Texas’ legal battle with HISA helps no one—especially Texas horse racing, which continues to strive for relevancy with one hand tied behind its back while rejecting oversight from the first-ever national regulatory body for thoroughbred racing. It’s an embarrassment for the state and a big slap in the face to Texas-based racetracks. The annual Bluebonnet Stakes is one such attempt to retain its dignity.
The Bluebonnet Stakes’ $75,000 purse is supplemented by state taxes on equine goods and services. It is a 6 1/2-furlong sprint for fillies and mares bred in Texas. It is the first of four stakes days at Lone Star Park.
Anytime Steven Asmussen shows up with a horse from Saratoga and Belmont, eyebrows are raised. Other than Texas’ crass disregard for horse doping (Asmussen has been found guilty on multiple occasions of using illegal synthetic hormones as feed supplements) and deep ties to the horse racing industry in Texas, Asmussen has no reason to be here - except to enter a horse he truly thinks can win a race with a pretty payout. Despite a multitude of warning signs, Closing Act arrives as a true contender.
Closing Act’s works peaked, as would be expected from a top-notch trainer like Asmussen, and this 3-year-old Filly is still finding her way. Our biggest concern is her inconsistent speed - and that long layoff since her last outing. Anytime we see rising E1 and mid-pace trends coinciding with a decline in late pace, we fear something is amiss - and that’s exactly what we see with Closing Act. Was Asmussen able to “fix” whatever problem may (or may not) have existed during the 200+ day layoff? We think so. We’re going with Closing Act for the win.
Reason over Riches is getting faster and faster and we expect to see improved speed in this race too. But that doesn’t inspire much confidence when you’re one of the slowest horses in the race. Toss.
Izatiz’s speed popped her last time out. Was it a fluke or a sign of great things to come? She’ll come out one gate over from Closing Act and with the best early speed in the crowd, they’ll begin to battle the moment the bell rings. Will Closing Act push her too far?
In her last outing, she finished second behind Peak Factor and ahead of Reclusive. We suspect we’ll see a similar outcome in this race. She might finish in the money - or barely miss the cut.
Reclusive’s speed is up there with the best. However, he is showing a clear pattern of decline. He placed third in his last race, the Yellow Rose Stakes, behind both Peak Factor and Izatiz. This time, the superior competition will squeeze him out of the money.
One of the leading runners in the state, she achieved three consecutive sprint stakes victories during the Sam Houston Race Park meet. However, in her two-turn debut on March 23, she finished second in the $100,000 Texas Thoroughbred Association Oaks. Still, her speed is consistently trending up, as are all her pace figures. She’s never finished out of the money, and with a return to the sprint distance, there’s no reason to think she’ll miss out on the fun in this race either. We’re taking Too Much Kiki as a close second behind Closing Act - and possibly even an upset win.
Declining pace and erratic speed. Slow pace all around. Hasn’t finished in the money since 2022. Toss.
After a steady decline in speed, Peek Factor’s last outing showed us he is one of the fastest horses in the race when he finished first ahead of Izatiz and Reclusive. And his works have peaked. He has the best speed at this distance too, but we don't think he has enough to take down Izatiz two times in a row. Still, there’s a very good chance he’ll finish in the money.
City Ghost’s speed has not quite kept up with the rest of the contenders and, in fact, is showing a gradual decline, but she’s still one of the faster horses in this race. She’ll have Rene Diaz in the saddle, and it’s possible she could finish in the money, but we’d rather give her another year to really sprout wings.
Here’s our take on the finish order: