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Pick Pony | April 20, 2024, 3:40 p.m.
The Oaklawn Handicap is a Grade II Thoroughbred horse race that takes place annually in April, at Oaklawn Park Race Track in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The race is run on dirt and has been contested over a distance of 1+1/8 miles (9 furlongs) since 1984, having previously been run over a distance of 1+1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs).
The 2024 Oaklawn Handicap is the 11th race on Oaklawn Park’s April 20, 2024 card. This is one of the top races in the country and features some of the top older talent.
In Highland Falls’ last outing, he turned in a respectable 4th-place finish in a G1 at Satna Anita. That is not bad, considering the massive jump in class and moving to a longer distance. Now we see Brad Cox shipping him in for a payday. It’s not an impossible task with Florent Geroux in the saddle, especially with an inside post that Highland Falls feels comfortable in.
He likes to take a little time off between races, and his works are relaxed, so it’s hard to glean much there. But his speed and pace are improving faster than any other horse besides Octane. We don’t think he’ll finish in the money, but he won’t miss it by much. Watch for an overlay.
Double Crown has some of the slowest speed numbers of this race. Speed and pace are all on the decline, too. We don’t know why Raymond Ginter chooses to run him so frequently. Possibly with a little rest, he might fare better. But for today, he’s a toss.
Magic Tap arrives via Steven Asmussen with Keigh Asmussen in the irons. His speed and pace are trending up, and he’s one of the fastest horses in this race. Lately, however, this distance has been giving him trouble, and this race shape doesn’t appear to suit him. He’ll barely miss making it on the board.
Octane moves up in class and distance, but he’s proven he can run with the big boys, turning in some blazing speed numbers in his last outings. From the works, Juan Alvarado appears confident in Octane’s condition.
His speed is consistently trending up, and we expect him to turn in some of his best numbers in this race. That’s saying something since he’s the second-fastest horse in this lineup.
This will be his first attempt at this longer distance, but his late pace has improved with each outing. We think he’ll handle it fine and expect a finish in the money, likely in the top two.
This one is tough to call. He turned in a stunning speed number at Fair Grounds in New Orleans - his best run ever. But can he do it again?
His speed is beginning to flatten, and his late pace is actually starting to decline, but Rosario has shown he knows how to navigate Red Route One at this distance. We’re putting him in the money, although the odds will probably make him a bad bet.
Reincarnate has shown that he can - and cannot - hang with the G1 crew. A G2 is more to his liking, although he’s even blown opportunities at that class.
He fared well before trying a sloppy surface that he didn’t like. Then he tried turf and hated it even more. Moving back to dirt, Baffert tweaked his speed, then turned in some good 5f works.
He’ll likely set the pace, but can he hold out for a distance he may not be suitable for? It’s hard to bet against Baffert, but that’s just what we’re going to do. He’ll barely miss making it on the board.
Guntown is one of the slower horses in the race, and AI predicts a downturn in his next outing. Plus, we think he is outclassed. Toss.
Although he was once considered a speed demon, Last Samurai is showing an alarming decline in speed and late pace, and we’re not confident Eddit Milligan can pull him out of this funk. At six years of age, he’s likely losing a step. Toss.
County Final isn’t getting any faster or slower. Saffie Joseph has tried dirt and turf, sprints, and routes. Joseph just can’t figure County Final out. If he can’t figure him out, neither can we. Toss.
Skippylongstocking is the favorite, but beware. He may be feeling his age. Earlier this year, he pulled up and walked off a G1 at Gulfstream, then took about a month off for light training. Whatever happened to Skippy in that race was not fixed, as he came back in the next race to turn in a dismal performance. Oh, he won that last race, for sure. But it was a much lower caliber G3 - and his pace and speed were way off.
Still, you can’t discount Skippy’s speed without solid proof. He’s the fastest horse in this race. His speed is trending up, and AI says we should expect another bump up in this race. We’re going to give him one more chance. It’s Skippylongstocking for the win.
Instant Coffee lacks speed, although the 4-year-old colt is improving. We don’t think he’s quite up to par with his opponents—at least not yet. Toss (but keep an eye on him).