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Pick Pony | May 30, 2024, 12:27 p.m.
The Penn Ladies Dash Stakes is a 6-furlong race run on dirt at Penn National Race Course. It is restricted to three-year-olds and upward. The purse pays $50k.
Note that the Penn National track is believed to be biased to Early running styles on all surfaces and inside/rails at most distances, except for the shortest races (less than 6 furlongs), which tend to be biased to the midlines.
This dash-for-cash event has a couple of standouts that should make the tote board and a handful that are itching to show they are worthy of this class level.
It’s New Hire vs. Knickersinatist. Both are speedsters with dramatically different running styles. Where New Hires likes to hang back, Knickersinatwist likes to lead the way. She’s a speedster, albeit not quite as fast as New Hire and Fee, and her speed has been in a downward trend for quite some time. Her works have been nothing to write home about either, and as seen with her speed, all her pace figures are declining. The inside post position should help her, but she will be hard-pressed by the filly in the post next to her.
The open question is, what happened to Knickersinatwist in that last race? She wandered out of the gate but quickly regained her composure to take the lead, which she maintained until the second turn when Hernandez began straightening his legs and looking down toward the stirrup arms. There was little encouragement from Hernandez going down the stretch, and in fact, he plopped down in the saddle and gave up. Whether it was an equipment malfunction, an early warning that something was amiss with Knickersinatwist, or something else - we don’t know.
Her workouts continued in fine form after the puzzling race, and with only four weeks off (the normal rest period for Knickersinatwist), we can presume there is nothing wrong with her physically. This makes handicapping her for this race very risky. For that reason, we can’t give her the win but will put her in the money - with quite a bit of trepidation…
Fee is one of the fastest horses in the group, although her speed has faltered in the past three races. As can be seen with all her pace times, she is on a steady decline. She’s had a three-month break and Jesus Cruz has a decent 4-90 day away ROI. Still, her decline has been evident since late 2023. In peak condition and form, she’s a contender for the win. The question is - what form will she arrive in at the Penn Ladies Dash Stakes?
Her works have been so-so, but then again, they’re always inconsistent. Still, if the track timer is to be accepted, her last works was a brief 3f at a slow jog. All signs point to a problem with Fee. She would likely finish out of the money until they get this straightened out - if it weren’t for the poor class of horses in this race. For that reason, she has a good chance of barely squeezing a spot on the tote board.
Could Be A Cougar’s works have been weak but unlike most other trainers, Mark Salvaggio likes to start his works strong and finish with a whimper. For Could Be A Cougar, that means she’s either in peak form for this race or is using it as a training run. Given this race is a stakes, we opt for the prior - she’s primed to race.
However, no matter the conditioning and prep, Could Be A Cougar is one of the most inconsistent horses in this race. In more than half of her races, she runs with speed that puts her in the bottom of the pack. But when she runs well, she’s clearly a contender. Still, we can’t bet on hopes alone. Toss with a weary shake of your head.
Lastchance Romance threw us a curve ball in her last race. She has the lowest average speed in this race, but her speed is trending up, as are all of her pace figures, and her last race was - wow. A first-place finish in an optional claiming 16K race with pretty decent speed figure, one that’s about 25% higher than her average. The only thing that really changed in that race was the level of competition, which she stoutly rose to meet. This little filly is going places - just not today. She’s outclassed in this group. Toss.
Moonsafe’s early pace is trending downward while her late pace times are rocketing up. Her speed is trending up, which is no surprise given Michael Salvaggio’s 70% in-the-money percentage. How do you bet against that? Easy. You can’t squeeze blood from a turnip. Against the caliber of competition she’ll face in the Penn Ladies Dash, she should finish around 4 or 5.
Don’t let the last race fool you. By far, the top speed in this race is New Hire. Discount her previous outing, and you can clearly see her speed is improving with each run, and AI is predicting a bounce upward in this race.
With her stalking running style, she’ll be trying to chase down Knickersinatwist for the win - but this mare may be showing her age. Erin McClellan has begun reclassifying New Hire as a sprinter. Her 6-furlong switch in January worked well for her - she took first in a class slightly lower than this one. She returned to the longer route for a single race, then dropped back to 7 furlongs, which seemed a tad bit long for her. 6 furlongs is her sweet spot and it’ll show in this race. Watch for her to blow everyone away coming down the stretch for the win.
Lady Ahava
Lady Ahava has shown sparks of impressive speed. Her pace and speed rating are climbing, but she’s still one of the slowest horses in the group. Toss.