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Pick Pony | June 3, 2024, 7:55 p.m.
The Taboga Overnight Stakes is a 5 furlong race run on the dirt track at Canada’s Assiniboia Downs. It is restricted to fillies and mares three years old and older. The race is named after trainer Glen Ball’s Manitoba’s stakes-winning filly Taboga.
If there was an appropriately named monicker for a horse, it’s Soaring Lady. This filly looks unstoppable. She’s never *not* finished in the money and has stood atop the podium each time in her last five races. She’s trained by Jerry Gourneau, who is no stranger to shaping winning horses.
The four-year-old filly’s speed improves with each race and shows no signs of slowing down. And all of her pace figures are rising, too. Even without the continual improvements, she’s already the fastest horse in this race.
So why the 15:1 morning odds? Soaring Lady has never competed at this class level. An OC10000 down in Houston is the closest she’s come - and of course, she won that one, too. Five furlongs cuts it close for this strong presser, who takes a bit of distance to build up steam.
Still, Soaring Lady is shaping up to be the best overlay of the day - and there’s a strong chance she wins this race, too.
Spitten Kitten is the early speed in this sprint. She’ll likely set up a dual with Halfinthewrapper, which she’ll win. But wait. Just two weeks ago, she was beaten by Halfinthe wrapper. And Damn the Torpedoes. And Melisandre. What makes this race any different?
We think her last race was a training run. She’s had one workout since then, and her last race was only two weeks ago. Her speed is improving with each race, and we expect to see a return to the speed we saw two races prior. Conversely, we expect the speed seen by the three that outgunned her two weeks ago to decline across the board. It’s Spitten Kitten for second place.
Make no mistake - Melisandre is fast, with the second-best speed rating at his distance. However, her speed has been on a downtrend for a few races, and her E2 and LP paces are tumbling. This will be her second start after a nearly one-year layoff which should be enough to push her past Damn The Torpedoes, who beat her two weeks ago on this same track. It’ll be one of those odd races where the top three finishers come from the first three posts.
Stormies Blue is Jerry Gourneau’s second entry, who is more than likely using this race to correct her plummeting speed and nothing more. Toss.
Orange Theory is one of the slowest horses in this group and shows no sign of turning things around. Just about every figure on paper is heading toward the basement. Shelley Brown has been moving Orange Theory around, trying to find the right race for this six-year-old mare—but five furlongs definitely isn’t it. Toss.
Spun Line is another ex-speedster who’s losing her touch. This eight-year-old mare is declining in about every area, and she’s already been beaten by Damn The Torpedoes, Melisandre, and Halfinthewrapper. There’s no reason to believe this race will be any different. She will finish slightly behind the middle of the pack.
All of Halfinthewrapper’s pace figures are slowing up, and this will be his second start after a seven-month layoff. He showed two weeks ago at this track but that was against a much weaker class than he’ll see today. His odds look like an underlay could develop. He will finish slightly out of the money anyway, so don’t bother.
This will be Damn The Torpedoe’s second start after an eight-month vacation. Her recent works were nothing special, but hopefully, the time off did her some good. All of her stats are stagnant or declining. It’s s shame because she was one of the faster horses in this race.
Her first 5-furlong race two weeks ago was impressive. She won over Melisandre and Halfinthewrapper. Her competitors will be a little tougher today, and if she has a good run, she could make the board. However, we can’t throw down money wishing on stars. She will barely miss the tote board today.