Belmont Park racing - July 4 2024 - Analysis, picks and predictions

Pick Pony | July 3, 2024, 2:51 p.m.

About Belmont at Aqueduct

Belmont Park

Belmont Park is a thoroughbred horse racetrack located in Elmont, New York, just east of New York City. It is best known for hosting the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the American Triple Crown. Opened on May 4, 1905, it is one of the most renowned racetracks in the United States.

Operated by the New York Racing Association (NYRA), Belmont Park typically hosts races from late April through mid-July (the Spring meet) and from mid-September through late October (the Fall meet). The main dirt track, called "the Big Sandy," is notable for its large dimensions (1+1⁄2 miles or 2.4 km) and its deep, sometimes challenging surface. Belmont is also known as "The Championship Track" because almost every major champion in racing history since the early 20th century has competed there, including all of the Triple Crown winners.

Belmont July 4, 2024 entries, picks and predictions

Race 1

Win: Italian Soiree
Place: As Catch Can
Show: Yellow
Others to watch: Italian Soiree, Home Wrecker

Race 2

Win: Ichiban
Place: Sweet Mystery
Show: Miz Sense
Others to watch: Whistler’s Style, Sedona

Race 3 Perfect Sting Stakes

Win: Lady Beth
Place: Moonage Daydream
Show: Midnight mile
Others to watch: Bustin Bay, Royal Poppy, Mouffy

Lady Beth

Lady Beth’s speed is declining slightly, but her rising late feet-per-second speed on the second turn makes us smile. Plus, the late fps numbers are outpacing everything else, leading us to believe this four-year-old may have just turned the corner. We’re giving her the win.

Moonage Daydream

Moonage Daydream could be our overlay for this race. Coming in at 10:1, we believe she has an excellent chance of finishing in the money. The public is ignoring her because of her low-speed numbers. What they are missing, however, is the stunning improvement in E1 and E2 pace. Plus, Moonage Daydream is highly experienced on turf, which is not surprising given she’s the daughter of Candy Ride.

Her works are improving, which may explain the upward trend in speed (another factor the public is likely missing). We can’t quite give her the win (although it’s not out of the question), but a Place or Show finish is looking good.

Damaso

Damaso is another entry that may come in under the radar because of low speed numbers. Like Moonage Daydream, her pace numbers are among the best in this race, especially E1 and LP pace ratings. Combine this with a record of great finishes and you’ve got a filly with all the makings of a winner. She’s not quite ready for the top, but she is destined for the tote board.

Bustin Bay

Bustin Bay’s poor finish on a muddy track at Saratoga is skewing the numbers. She’s not as bad as she looks on papers. In fact, she’s quite good, and the public knows it. She could finish in the money but an underlay may prohibit any chance of making money on her.

Royal Poppy

Royal Poppy will break from the outside post, but that’s never bothered her before. In fact, as demonstrated by her last two finishes from Post 1, she seems to prefer the lonely side of the track. After all, she has the best early speed in this race.

Her last couple of finishes are why we can’t put her on the board. She could recover, but there’s a definite downward trend in speed combined with increasing time off, which is indicative of trouble in the paddock.

Mouffy

There’s not much to dislike about Mouffy. This daughter of Indian Charlie has the best pedigree by far, and Jonathan Thomas leading the show is hard to bet against. She’ll go in as the favorite, and since we’re not putting her in the money, that opens the odds for some other opportunities.

Yes, that’s right. We’re NOT putting Mouffy in the money because that last race really worries us. Her declining speed was enough to prompt concern, and her plummeting feet-per-second and early pace are further hints at an early exit.

It’ll come down to her form on race day. At her best, she’ll win this race. But if she continues the decline, she’s ready for a drop in class.

Race 4

Win: Tirupati
Place: Patty Brown Eyes
Show: Silvology
Others to watch: Bewildered, No Tricks, Headline Numbers

Race 5

Win: Cover The Spread
Place: Enigmatic 
Show: Call Her Bluff
Others to watch: Just Music, Graceful Rose

Race 6

Win: Son Of A Birch
Place: Gun It
Show: Spun And Won
Others to watch: Bourbon Music, Boat’s A Rockin, Outlaw Kid

Race 7

Win: Catch a Wave
Place: Paddington
Show: Indianquest
Others to watch: Going Concern, Moore’s Law

Race 8 Victory Ride Stakes

Win: Mystic Lake
Place: Emery
Show: Halina’s Forte
Others to watch: Golden Degree, Autumn Evening

Mystic Lake

What’s not to like about Mystic Lake? Oh, the low odds. The public likes Mystic Lake, and we agree. She has speed, stunning early pace, and knows how to win races. Her speed has continued to improve with each race, as has her early pace. She keeps getting better and better with no signs of letting up.

Emery

If you think the public is goo-goo for Mystic Lake, take a look at Emery. Coming in with 6:5 odds, this inexperienced filly is a crowd favorite. But let’s not put the cart ahead of the horse. Sure, she’s won three of her first four races (she broke her maiden in her first time out), but most every stat hints at a decline in form. Quite frankly, we’re not sure what’s going on.

Emery’s average early speed is the best in this group. However, stepping back and looking at her speed in the last three races, you can clearly see she is failing to improve at the rate needed to beat this class of horse. She’s still good enough to make the tote board but likely not ready for the win until she sorts out whatever mess is going on with her performance.

Halina’s Forte

Halina’s Forte is one of the fastest horses in this race and has the highest Pick Pony Peak Performance rating. Her speed is rising, and the Phiulip Bauer/Jose Ortiz combo is tough to beat. So why don’t we give her a spot on the tote board? There are some alarming signals in her training regime.

Halina’s Forte’s works have been steadily declining. This could be an ideal training routine that would explain her improving speed and E2 pace. However, that doesn’t jive with recent poor performances and a steady decline in late speed. Plus, AI is predicting a downward spike in speed. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but we think something is up. We are putting her slightly out of the money this time around.

Golden Degree

Lower-than-average speed is trumped by improving early pace and recent strong finishes. Golden Degree is on the rise, and now might be the time to jump on the train. The chances of making the tote board are good. Not great. But good. Watch the overlay and jump in if the public missing this opportunity.

Autumn Evening

Autumn Evening looks like a longshot impossibility in all areas - except you have Richard Dutrow at the helm and Manuel Franco in the irons. That’s not something you see with a horse that won’t make the tote board. Her last two finishes were stellar, and her speed is ramping up fast. Her works have peaked, her pace is climbing, and the moon and the stars have aligned. If the odds work out, she could be the best overlay of this race. Watch her carefully. There’s no guarantee she’ll make the board, but there’s a much better possibility she finishes in the money than the current odds let on.

Race 9

Win: Bossy Jeans
Place: Lucky And Gorgeous 
Show: The Splendid One
Others to watch: Tongue Twister