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Pick Pony | Aug. 26, 2024, 3:08 p.m.
Xavey Dave has Mclean Robertson in his corner, which explains the top-notch stats we see all over the board. He has the fastest average speed, the fastest average speed over the last three races, and the highest speed number overall - by far. However, his speed is trending flat - as in as flat as a pancake with no improvement over the past several races. To add more fear to the fire, his FPS numbers are declining. His early and mid-pace numbers are improving, but then there’s that declining late-pace trend to worry about.
He has the fastest speed on a fast track, the fastest speed on turf, the fastest speed at this distance, and the highest Pick Pony Peak Performance rating. Did we mention Xavey Dave loves the turf? All of this explains Xavey Dave’s 4:5 odds. There will be no overlay, so all this is a moot point anyway…
Half Brother’s works have peaked just in time and his speed trend line is sloping upward with every race. AI predicts a bounce back up in this race, which could make him the one to beat. His mid- and late-FPS numbers are increasing but are offset by a declining early FPS stat. All of his pace numbers, early, mid, and late, are increasing, especially E2, which is on a sharp upward trend.
If there’s anyone who can challenge Xavey Dave, it’s Half Brother. In fact, the two might press Its Bobs Business through most of this race before making the move that gives them the 1-2 spots. And get this: we think Half Brother may even be able to pull off the big upset and take Xavey Dave down. If the overlay presents itself, go for it.
Dare you bet against Joel Barndt? Its Bobs Business’ speed has been steadily declining for a while now. This is partially offset by his steadily increasing FPS numbers. We expect him to take the lead out of the gate, followed by Xavey Dave and Half Brother pressing him hard. Then, we expect him to be passed by both. Still, he’s good enough for a Show finish.
Roses By Liam’s works seem to have peaked just in time for this race which makes it a little easier to accept his steadily declining speed trend. However, his declining FPS and pace trends are alarming. And let’s not forget, what little experience he has on turf was not good. We don’t expect him to make the tote board but it will be close.
Found Jordan’s works are consistently strong but his speed is trending fairly flat. That’s about as good as it gets with this five-year-old gelding. This race is a far higher caliber than anything he’s raced in the past. Toss.