Churchill Downs September 14, 2024 - Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | Sept. 11, 2024, 8:52 p.m.

Race analysis and commentary

Collinsworth Thoroughbred Racing’s undefeated Texas-bred filly Stilettos will attempt to win her third career race as the 4-1 morning-line favorite in Saturday’s $300,000 Pocahontas Stakes (Grade III), the kickoff of the Road to the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

Trained by Bret Calhoun, Stilettos dominated her five-furlong debut at Lone Star Park, winning by an eye-catching 16 ¾ lengths. Following that start, Calhoun shipped the daughter of Upstart to his string at Churchill Downs and six weeks later she gamely defeated seven rivals in the Ellis Park Debutante.

“She just dominated her competition in Texas, but you’re never really sure of the caliber of horses she faced there, so we decided to ship her here for the Debutante at Ellis,” Calhoun said. “It was a big step up, but we were optimistic about her chances against those fillies. I thought it was a very impressive race on her part. It looked like she was going to win that race like her debut, but I think she got a little tired, a little green, and a little lost. That race should move her forward. I don’t think she got a lot out of her debut, but she got a little tired on us in the Debutante.”

Stilettos has won both of her starts in gate-to-wire fashion but Calhoun believes she can be more versatile.

“We never intended to be on the lead in the Debutante,” Calhoun said. “Watching the race, you could tell Brian (Hernandez Jr.) was trying to sit, but the horse to her inside wanted the lead and couldn’t get there. She just took us to the front. I’m going to leave it up to Jose (Ortiz) in the Pocahontas. There’s a lot of speed in the race, as these juveniles often show early in the year. Most of them have won on or close to the lead. It’ll be interesting how things play out down the backside, but I’ve got a pretty good rider to figure that out.”

Stilettos will break from post No. 12.

The Pocahontas drew an over-subscribed field of 14 2-year-old fillies plus two also-eligibles. The fillies will head to post in Race 8 with a post time of 4:25 p.m. (all times Eastern). The first of 11 races will get underway at 12:45 p.m.

The Pocahontas will award the top five finishers qualifying points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale for a spot in the starting gate for the 151st running of the Longines Kentucky Oaks (GI) on Friday, May 2 at Churchill Downs.

Here is the field from the rail out (with jockey, trainer and morning line odds):

Chattanooga Crew (Brian Hernandez, Kenny McPeek, 20-1)
Icona Mama (Florent Geroux, Flint Stites, 15-1)
La Cara (Ricardo Santana Jr., Mark Casse, 5-1)
Empirical Mischief (Edgar Morales, John Ennis, 20-1)
Hearts United (Julien Leparoux, Kenny McPeek, 30-1)
Pretty Sure (Joel Rosario, Brendan Walsh, 12-1)
Quinn’s Promise (Martin Chuan, Dale Romans, 10-1)
Atomic City (Luan Machado, Eddie Kenneally, 15-1)
Strong State (Irad Ortiz Jr, Al Stall Jr., 5-1)
Lady Kathryn (Cristian Torres, Riley Mott, 10-1)
West Memorial (Rey Gutierrez, George Weaver, 15-1)
Stilettos (Jose Ortiz, Calhoun, 4-1)
Kimchi Cat (Tyler Gaffalione, Tom Amoss, 9-2)
Liam in the Dust (Luis Saez, Rodolphe Brisset, 15-1)
(AE 15) Claire’s Charm (Joel Rosario, Phil Bauer, 12-1)
(AE 16) Good Cheer (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox, 12-1)
Several fillies not regularly based in Kentucky have arrived for Saturday’s race, including New York-based West Memorial, who has galloped three days over the track, and Pennsylvania-based Icona Mama, who arrived early Friday morning.

The Pocahontas is one of five stakes races featured on Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs. The lineup includes the $300,000 Iroquois (GIII), the kickoff of the Road to the Kentucky Derby; the $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Locust Grove (GII); the $300,000 Open Mind (Listed); and the $300,000 Louisville Thoroughbred Society.

AI algorithm picks

Algorithm 1

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Miracle Worker (7/2)
Place:4 - Shirl'S Bee (3/1)
Show:6 - Temecula (5/2)
Other contenders:5 - Agoo (6/1), 2 - Parkway (9/2)
 
Race 2
Win:8 - Sally O'Malley (3/1)
Place:4 - Ella Elizabeth (6/1)
Show:1 - Lady Aberdeen (6/1)
Other contenders:9 - Endless Glow (4/1), 7 - Beach Bunny (9/2), 2 - Foxy Zorra (15/1), 6 - Flight On Race Day (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:3 - Mo Winning (10/1)
Place:7 - Mr Mcgregor (8/1)
Show:8 - Mo Rum (10/1)
Other contenders:1 - Merit (9/2), 5 - My Friend Louie (12/1), 6 - Mandalorian (5/2)
 
Race 4
Win:4 - Union Mist (5/2)
Place:1 - Vanished (3/1)
Show:2 - Shezalittlestinker (15/1)
Other contenders:10 - Churning Berni (6/1), 6 - Viable (15/1), 3 - Vino Frizzante (8/1)
 
Race 5
Win:6 - Unsung Melody (3/1)
Place:1 - Run For The Hills (8/1)
Show:4 - Happy Am I (6/1)
Other contenders:2 - Zeitlos (8/5), 3 - Positano Sunset (5/2)
 
Race 6
Win:3 - Harrodsburg (6/1)
Place:8 - Global Stage (20/1)
Show:12 - Attache (7/2)
Other contenders:9 - Own The Field (5/1), 4 - House United (15/1), 11 - Call Me Andy (20/1), 1 - Gold Sweep (15/1)
 
Race 7
Win:2 - Free Like A Girl (7/2)
Place:4 - Loved (5/1)
Show:7 - Shotgun Hottie (2/1)
Other contenders:1 - Musical Mischief (8/1), 8 - Hoosier Philly (8/1), 6 - Corningstone (15/1)
 
Race 8
Win:10 - Lady Kathryn (10/1)
Place:3 - La Cara (5/1)
Show:9 - Strong State (5/1)
Other contenders:13 - Kimchi Cat (9/2), 11 - West Memorial (15/1), 8 - Atomic City (15/1), 1 - Chattanooga Crew (20/1), 7 - Quinn'S Promise (10/1)
 
Race 9
Win:10 - Skelly (2/1)
Place:5 - Disco Ball (12/1)
Show:2 - Closethegame Sugar (9/5)
Other contenders:6 - Here Mi Song (8/1), 1 - Gulfstream Way (12/1), 4 - My Buddy B (10/1)
 
Race 10
Win:12 - Politicallycorrect (6/1)
Place:2 - Giocoso (10/1)
Show:6 - Strummin (12/1)
Other contenders:1 - First Resort (12/1), 5 - Owen Almighty (5/2), 7 - Sandman (6/1), 8 - Magnitude (8/1)
 
Race 11
Win:2 - Homer'S Odyssey (9/2)
Place:11 - Kinetic Control (3/1)
Show:9 - Cooper (12/1)
Other contenders:7 - Desert Aire (8/1), 5 - Tickled Quist (7/2), 13 - Ripped (12/1), 10 - Thunderhawk (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 500, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Algorithm 2

 

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Miracle Worker (7/2)
Place:4 - Shirl'S Bee (3/1)
Show:6 - Temecula (5/2)
Other contenders:5 - Agoo (6/1), 2 - Parkway (9/2)
 
Race 2
Win:8 - Sally O'Malley (3/1)
Place:1 - Lady Aberdeen (6/1)
Show:4 - Ella Elizabeth (6/1)
Other contenders:9 - Endless Glow (4/1), 7 - Beach Bunny (9/2), 2 - Foxy Zorra (15/1), 6 - Flight On Race Day (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:3 - Mo Winning (10/1)
Place:7 - Mr Mcgregor (8/1)
Show:8 - Mo Rum (10/1)
Other contenders:1 - Merit (9/2), 5 - My Friend Louie (12/1), 6 - Mandalorian (5/2)
 
Race 4
Win:4 - Union Mist (5/2)
Place:1 - Vanished (3/1)
Show:2 - Shezalittlestinker (15/1)
Other contenders:10 - Churning Berni (6/1), 6 - Viable (15/1), 3 - Vino Frizzante (8/1)
 
Race 5
Win:6 - Unsung Melody (3/1)
Place:1 - Run For The Hills (8/1)
Show:4 - Happy Am I (6/1)
Other contenders:2 - Zeitlos (8/5), 3 - Positano Sunset (5/2)
 
Race 6
Win:3 - Harrodsburg (6/1)
Place:8 - Global Stage (20/1)
Show:12 - Attache (7/2)
Other contenders:4 - House United (15/1), 9 - Own The Field (5/1), 1 - Gold Sweep (15/1), 11 - Call Me Andy (20/1)
 
Race 7
Win:2 - Free Like A Girl (7/2)
Place:4 - Loved (5/1)
Show:7 - Shotgun Hottie (2/1)
Other contenders:1 - Musical Mischief (8/1), 8 - Hoosier Philly (8/1), 6 - Corningstone (15/1)
 
Race 8
Win:10 - Lady Kathryn (10/1)
Place:3 - La Cara (5/1)
Show:9 - Strong State (5/1)
Other contenders:13 - Kimchi Cat (9/2), 11 - West Memorial (15/1), 8 - Atomic City (15/1), 1 - Chattanooga Crew (20/1), 12 - Stilettos (4/1)
 
Race 9
Win:10 - Skelly (2/1)
Place:5 - Disco Ball (12/1)
Show:2 - Closethegame Sugar (9/5)
Other contenders:6 - Here Mi Song (8/1), 1 - Gulfstream Way (12/1), 4 - My Buddy B (10/1)
 
Race 10
Win:12 - Politicallycorrect (6/1)
Place:2 - Giocoso (10/1)
Show:6 - Strummin (12/1)
Other contenders:5 - Owen Almighty (5/2), 1 - First Resort (12/1), 7 - Sandman (6/1), 8 - Magnitude (8/1)
 
Race 11
Win:2 - Homer'S Odyssey (9/2)
Place:11 - Kinetic Control (3/1)
Show:5 - Tickled Quist (7/2)
Other contenders:7 - Desert Aire (8/1), 9 - Cooper (12/1), 13 - Ripped (12/1), 12 - Abbi Fede (20/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 80, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 50,

 

Algorithm 3

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Miracle Worker (7/2)
Place:4 - Shirl'S Bee (3/1)
Show:5 - Agoo (6/1)
Other contenders:6 - Temecula (5/2), 2 - Parkway (9/2)
 
Race 2
Win:8 - Sally O'Malley (3/1)
Place:4 - Ella Elizabeth (6/1)
Show:1 - Lady Aberdeen (6/1)
Other contenders:9 - Endless Glow (4/1), 7 - Beach Bunny (9/2), 2 - Foxy Zorra (15/1), 6 - Flight On Race Day (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:1 - Merit (9/2)
Place:7 - Mr Mcgregor (8/1)
Show:3 - Mo Winning (10/1)
Other contenders:8 - Mo Rum (10/1), 6 - Mandalorian (5/2), 10 - Bettera (12/1)
 
Race 4
Win:1 - Vanished (3/1)
Place:4 - Union Mist (5/2)
Show:2 - Shezalittlestinker (15/1)
Other contenders:10 - Churning Berni (6/1), 6 - Viable (15/1), 3 - Vino Frizzante (8/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Run For The Hills (8/1)
Place:6 - Unsung Melody (3/1)
Show:2 - Zeitlos (8/5)
Other contenders:4 - Happy Am I (6/1), 3 - Positano Sunset (5/2)
 
Race 6
Win:3 - Harrodsburg (6/1)
Place:8 - Global Stage (20/1)
Show:12 - Attache (7/2)
Other contenders:4 - House United (15/1), 11 - Call Me Andy (20/1), 1 - Gold Sweep (15/1), 7 - Think Big (5/1)
 
Race 7
Win:2 - Free Like A Girl (7/2)
Place:4 - Loved (5/1)
Show:7 - Shotgun Hottie (2/1)
Other contenders:8 - Hoosier Philly (8/1), 6 - Corningstone (15/1), 1 - Musical Mischief (8/1)
 
Race 8
Win:10 - Lady Kathryn (10/1)
Place:3 - La Cara (5/1)
Show:9 - Strong State (5/1)
Other contenders:13 - Kimchi Cat (9/2), 11 - West Memorial (15/1), 12 - Stilettos (4/1), 8 - Atomic City (15/1), 1 - Chattanooga Crew (20/1)
 
Race 9
Win:10 - Skelly (2/1)
Place:5 - Disco Ball (12/1)
Show:2 - Closethegame Sugar (9/5)
Other contenders:6 - Here Mi Song (8/1), 1 - Gulfstream Way (12/1), 4 - My Buddy B (10/1)
 
Race 10
Win:12 - Politicallycorrect (6/1)
Place:2 - Giocoso (10/1)
Show:6 - Strummin (12/1)
Other contenders:5 - Owen Almighty (5/2), 1 - First Resort (12/1), 7 - Sandman (6/1), 8 - Magnitude (8/1)
 
Race 11
Win:2 - Homer'S Odyssey (9/2)
Place:11 - Kinetic Control (3/1)
Show:5 - Tickled Quist (7/2)
Other contenders:7 - Desert Aire (8/1), 9 - Cooper (12/1), 13 - Ripped (12/1), 12 - Abbi Fede (20/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 600,

 

Entries

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