Churchill Downs September 21, 2024 - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | Sept. 19, 2024, 7:08 p.m.

Keith Asmussen set to return after being sidelined with a fractured femur and broken ribs

Jockey Keith Asmussen is set for his return to the saddle Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs following more than three months on the sidelines because of a fractured femur and broken ribs.

Asmussen remarkably began getting back on horses in early August and has been regularly galloping and breezing some of the top horses in the stable of his Hall of Fame father, Steve Asmussen.

Asmussen was named aboard Payne in Race 3 Saturday and Vittorio in Race 9 on Sunday.

The Texas-native’s riding career began in 2020 and he’s since amassed 131 wins from 946 starts with $8.8 million in purse earnings.

Churchill Downs four-stakes card

William Butler and WinStar Farm’s Eight Belles Stakes (Grade II) winner My Mane Squeeze will return to Churchill Downs on Saturday where she’ll face a field of nine 3-year-old fillies as the 5-2 morning line choice in the 49th running of the $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Dogwood Stakes (GIII).

Saturday’s card features four stakes events across the 11-race program. First post is 12:45 p.m. (all times Eastern) with the seven-furlong Dogwood going at 4:25 p.m. as Race 8. The stakes brigade will kick off in Race 7 with the $300,000 Bourbon Flight. Following the Dogwood Stakes will be the $300,000 Harrods Creek in Race 9 and the $175,000 Seneca Overnight Stakes (Listed) in Race 10.

Here are the fields for all for stakes in order of post positions (with jockey, trainer and morning line odds): 

Race 7, $300,000 Bourbon Flight:

Next Level (Jareth Loveberry, Keith Desormeaux, 6-1)
 Elephants Ear (Colby Hernandez, Kenny McPeek, 8-1)
 Batten Down (Alvarado, Mott, 6-5)
 Mugatu (Ramon Vazquez, Jeff Engler, 15-1)
 Real Macho (Tyler Gaffalione, Rohan Crichton, 4-1)
 Hades (Saez, Orseno, 5-2)

 Race 8, $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Dogwood:

Uphill Dance (Tyler Gaffalione, Bill Mott, 15-1)
 Fibber (Axel Concepcion, Chris Hartman, 3-1)
 Reagan’s Flame (Francisco Arrieta, Lindsay Schultz, 15-1)
 Cap Classique (Corey Lanerie, Brittany Russell, 12-1)
 My Mane Squeeze (Luis Saez, Mike Maker, 5-2)
 Neom Beach (Cristian Torres, Steve Asmussen, 10-1)
 Manama Gold (Ramon Vazquez, Todd Pletcher, 6-1)
 Legadema (Gerardo Corrales, Phil Bauer, 8-1)
 Halina’s Forte (Junior Alvarado, Phil Bauer, 9-2)

 Race 9, $300,000 Harrods Creek:

Jefferson Street (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott, 5-2)
 Valentine Candy (Cristian Torres, Steve Asmussen, 3-1)
 Henro (Rafael Bejarano, Chris Hartman, 6-1)
 Willy D’s (Julien Leparoux, Greg Compton, 15-1)
 Alwaysintomischief (Fernando De La Cruz, Eric Foster, 20-1)
 Illuminare (Luis Saez, Todd Pletcher, 2-1)
 Dilger (IRE) (Tyler Gaffalione, Saffie Joseph Jr., 8-1)

 Race 10, $175,000 Seneca Overnight Stakes:

Midshipman’s Dance (Colby Hernandez, Kenny McPeek, 30-1)
 Everland (Luan Machado, Eric Foster, 8-1)
 Dazzling Move (Axel Concepcion, Mike Trombetta, 30-1)
 Little Jamie (Tyler Gaffalione, Robert Medina, 8-1)
 Neon Icon (Luis Saez, Rusty Arnold II, 8-1)
 Just Be Quiet (Fernando De La Cruz, Bob Gorham, 30-1)
 Here’s the Spider (Luan Machado, Ed Fernandez, 30-1)
 Chatalas (Corey Lanerie, Grant Foster, 9-2)
 Life Talk (Junior Alvarado, Todd Pletcher, 5-1)
 Home Game (Gerardo Corrales, Bill Morey, 15-1)
 Alpine Princess (Cristian Torres, Brad Cox, 6-1)
 Miss Justify (Luis Saez, Todd Pletcher, 3-1)
 Letstalkaboutme (Rafael Bejarano, Troy Green, 30-1)
 

 

AI Algorithm Picks

You may purchase custom Past Performance reports individually or through one of our subscription programs. Each Pick Pony Past Performance report includes customizable AI Algorithm picks that let you configure which data points most influence the algorithm. Find out more about AI Algorithm Picks You may purchase custom Past Performance reports individually or through one of our subscription programs. Each Pick Pony Past Performance report includes customizable AI Algorithm picks that let you configure which data points most influence the algorithm. Find out more about Pick Pony's Past Performance reports.">Pick Pony's Past Performance sheets.

Algorithm 1

 
Race 1
Win:11 - Streaking (4/1)
Place:1 - Grace On Grace (7/2)
Show:7 - Lovebug (8/1)
Other contenders:8 - La Bukana (9/2), 2 - Honeybeebobbie (30/1), 4 - Mom'S Cheesecake (12/1), 3 - Take Wings (8/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Tiffany Twist (5/1)
Place:5 - Jump Into The Fire (5/1)
Show:2 - Rosie'S Halo (5/2)
Other contenders:3 - Best Seller (2/1), 4 - Divinely Bolt (6/1)
 
Race 3
Win:7 - Jackman (6/1)
Place:4 - Friar Laurence (6/1)
Show:1 - The Queens Jules (12/1)
Other contenders:6 - Summer Splash (5/2), 5 - Sogno Di Campione (8/1), 3 - Payne (3/1)
 
Race 4
Win:8 - Pistol (3/1)
Place:3 - Mighty Madison (9/5)
Show:7 - Ervadean (4/1)
Other contenders:5 - Charriere (10/1), 4 - Aunt Becca (5/1), 2 - Olga (15/1)
 
Race 5
Win:3 - Stiglets (5/1)
Place:7 - Heavenville (9/2)
Show:12 - Knock Knock Joke (12/1)
Other contenders:9 - Speechless (5/1), 6 - Start To Win (10/1), 10 - Scotch Chocolate (15/1), 1 - Rothko (7/2)
 
Race 6
Win:2 - Pay Zone (4/1)
Place:9 - Alder (5/1)
Show:5 - Silver Halo (12/1)
Other contenders:8 - Texas Town (15/1), 6 - Justifreak (5/2), 1 - Shirl'S Bee (5/1)
 
Race 7
Win:3 - Batten Down (6/5)
Place:2 - Elephants Ear (8/1)
Show:6 - Hades (5/2)
Other contenders:1 - Next Level (6/1), 5 - Real Macho (4/1)
 
Race 8
Win:9 - Halina'S Forte (9/2)
Place:3 - Reagan'S Flame (15/1)
Show:8 - Legadema (8/1)
Other contenders:5 - My Mane Squeeze (5/2), 2 - Fibber (3/1), 4 - Cap Classique (12/1)
 
Race 9
Win:2 - Valentine Candy (3/1)
Place:1 - Jefferson Street (5/2)
Show:3 - Henro (6/1)
Other contenders:7 - Dilger (8/1), 4 - Willy D'S (15/1)
 
Race 10
Win:3 - Dazzling Move (30/1)
Place:8 - Chatalas (9/2)
Show:10 - Home Game (15/1)
Other contenders:12 - Miss Justify (3/1), 4 - Little Jamie (8/1), 11 - Alpine Princess (6/1), 9 - Life Talk (5/1)
 
Race 11
Win:1 - Cruise Missile (9/2)
Place:3 - Just A Coed (4/1)
Show:5 - Sang (5/1)
Other contenders:12 - Dancing Princess (15/1), 11 - Undercover (7/2), 9 - Palmilla'S Bet (20/1), 6 - Go Purple (10/1), 15 - Performability (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 500, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

 

Algorithm 2

 
Race 1
Win:11 - Streaking (4/1)
Place:1 - Grace On Grace (7/2)
Show:7 - Lovebug (8/1)
Other contenders:8 - La Bukana (9/2), 3 - Take Wings (8/1), 4 - Mom'S Cheesecake (12/1), 2 - Honeybeebobbie (30/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Tiffany Twist (5/1)
Place:5 - Jump Into The Fire (5/1)
Show:2 - Rosie'S Halo (5/2)
Other contenders:3 - Best Seller (2/1), 4 - Divinely Bolt (6/1)
 
Race 3
Win:7 - Jackman (6/1)
Place:4 - Friar Laurence (6/1)
Show:1 - The Queens Jules (12/1)
Other contenders:3 - Payne (3/1), 5 - Sogno Di Campione (8/1), 6 - Summer Splash (5/2)
 
Race 4
Win:8 - Pistol (3/1)
Place:3 - Mighty Madison (9/5)
Show:7 - Ervadean (4/1)
Other contenders:5 - Charriere (10/1), 2 - Olga (15/1), 4 - Aunt Becca (5/1)
 
Race 5
Win:3 - Stiglets (5/1)
Place:7 - Heavenville (9/2)
Show:12 - Knock Knock Joke (12/1)
Other contenders:9 - Speechless (5/1), 6 - Start To Win (10/1), 10 - Scotch Chocolate (15/1), 1 - Rothko (7/2)
 
Race 6
Win:2 - Pay Zone (4/1)
Place:9 - Alder (5/1)
Show:6 - Justifreak (5/2)
Other contenders:5 - Silver Halo (12/1), 8 - Texas Town (15/1), 1 - Shirl'S Bee (5/1)
 
Race 7
Win:3 - Batten Down (6/5)
Place:2 - Elephants Ear (8/1)
Show:1 - Next Level (6/1)
Other contenders:6 - Hades (5/2), 5 - Real Macho (4/1)
 
Race 8
Win:9 - Halina'S Forte (9/2)
Place:3 - Reagan'S Flame (15/1)
Show:8 - Legadema (8/1)
Other contenders:5 - My Mane Squeeze (5/2), 2 - Fibber (3/1), 4 - Cap Classique (12/1)
 
Race 9
Win:1 - Jefferson Street (5/2)
Place:2 - Valentine Candy (3/1)
Show:7 - Dilger (8/1)
Other contenders:3 - Henro (6/1), 4 - Willy D'S (15/1)
 
Race 10
Win:3 - Dazzling Move (30/1)
Place:8 - Chatalas (9/2)
Show:12 - Miss Justify (3/1)
Other contenders:10 - Home Game (15/1), 4 - Little Jamie (8/1), 11 - Alpine Princess (6/1), 9 - Life Talk (5/1)
 
Race 11
Win:1 - Cruise Missile (9/2)
Place:3 - Just A Coed (4/1)
Show:5 - Sang (5/1)
Other contenders:12 - Dancing Princess (15/1), 11 - Undercover (7/2), 9 - Palmilla'S Bet (20/1), 6 - Go Purple (10/1), 15 - Performability (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 80, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 50,

 

 

Algorithm 3

 
Race 1
Win:11 - Streaking (4/1)
Place:1 - Grace On Grace (7/2)
Show:7 - Lovebug (8/1)
Other contenders:8 - La Bukana (9/2), 3 - Take Wings (8/1), 4 - Mom'S Cheesecake (12/1), 2 - Honeybeebobbie (30/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Tiffany Twist (5/1)
Place:5 - Jump Into The Fire (5/1)
Show:2 - Rosie'S Halo (5/2)
Other contenders:3 - Best Seller (2/1), 4 - Divinely Bolt (6/1)
 
Race 3
Win:7 - Jackman (6/1)
Place:4 - Friar Laurence (6/1)
Show:1 - The Queens Jules (12/1)
Other contenders:5 - Sogno Di Campione (8/1), 3 - Payne (3/1), 6 - Summer Splash (5/2)
 
Race 4
Win:8 - Pistol (3/1)
Place:7 - Ervadean (4/1)
Show:3 - Mighty Madison (9/5)
Other contenders:5 - Charriere (10/1), 4 - Aunt Becca (5/1), 2 - Olga (15/1)
 
Race 5
Win:3 - Stiglets (5/1)
Place:7 - Heavenville (9/2)
Show:12 - Knock Knock Joke (12/1)
Other contenders:9 - Speechless (5/1), 6 - Start To Win (10/1), 1 - Rothko (7/2), 10 - Scotch Chocolate (15/1)
 
Race 6
Win:2 - Pay Zone (4/1)
Place:5 - Silver Halo (12/1)
Show:9 - Alder (5/1)
Other contenders:1 - Shirl'S Bee (5/1), 8 - Texas Town (15/1), 6 - Justifreak (5/2)
 
Race 7
Win:3 - Batten Down (6/5)
Place:2 - Elephants Ear (8/1)
Show:6 - Hades (5/2)
Other contenders:5 - Real Macho (4/1), 1 - Next Level (6/1)
 
Race 8
Win:9 - Halina'S Forte (9/2)
Place:8 - Legadema (8/1)
Show:5 - My Mane Squeeze (5/2)
Other contenders:3 - Reagan'S Flame (15/1), 7 - Manama Gold (6/1), 2 - Fibber (3/1)
 
Race 9
Win:2 - Valentine Candy (3/1)
Place:1 - Jefferson Street (5/2)
Show:6 - Illuminare (2/1)
Other contenders:3 - Henro (6/1), 7 - Dilger (8/1)
 
Race 10
Win:3 - Dazzling Move (30/1)
Place:8 - Chatalas (9/2)
Show:12 - Miss Justify (3/1)
Other contenders:10 - Home Game (15/1), 4 - Little Jamie (8/1), 11 - Alpine Princess (6/1), 9 - Life Talk (5/1)
 
Race 11
Win:3 - Just A Coed (4/1)
Place:1 - Cruise Missile (9/2)
Show:5 - Sang (5/1)
Other contenders:12 - Dancing Princess (15/1), 11 - Undercover (7/2), 9 - Palmilla'S Bet (20/1), 6 - Go Purple (10/1), 15 - Performability (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 600,

 

 

Race Entries

ALDERALPINE PRINCESSALTERED SHOTALWAYSINTOMISCHIEFAMERICAN STARLET
BACKGROUNDBARBANERABATTEN DOWNBEST SELLERBIG WALK
CAPER'S HOOLEYCAPTIVE HEARTCASH THE MONEYCHARRIERECHATALAS
CRUISE MISSILEDANCING PRINCESSDAZZLING MOVEDILGERDIVINELY BOLT
ERVADEANEVERLANDFIBBERFLAT STORMINFRIAR LAURENCE
GRACE ON GRACEHADESHALINA'S FORTEHASTENHEAVENVILLE
HERE'S THE SPIDERHOME GAMEHONEYBEEBOBBIEILLUMINAREJ. P. RACE
JEFFERSON STREETJUMP INTO THE FIREJUST A COEDJUST BE QUIETJUSTIFREAK
KNOCK KNOCK JOKELA BUKANALEGADEMALETSTALKABOUTMELIFE TALK
LITTLE JAMIELOVEBUGMADAME MARKIEVICZMANAMA GOLDMIDSHIPMAN'S DANCE
MILVENMISS JUSTIFYMOM'S CHEESECAKEMUGATUMY MANE SQUEEZE
NEON ICONNEXT LEVELOLGAONE GIANT LEAPORTHO STAR
PALMILLA'S BETPAY ZONEPAYNEPERFORMABILITYPISTOL
REAGAN'S FLAMEREAL MACHOROSIE'S HALOROTHKOSANG
SHE'S SINGLE AGAINSHIRL'S BEESILVER HALOSOGNO DI CAMPIONESPEECHLESS
START TO WINSTIGLETSSTREAKINGSUMMER SPLASHTAKA
TEXAS TOWNTHE QUEENS JULESTIFFANY TWISTTON A LAUGHSTRIPLE TREA
UNO LEUPHILL DANCEVALENTINE CANDYWILLY D'SWINNING FORTUNE