Colonial Downs August 31, 2024 - Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | Aug. 29, 2024, 1:54 p.m.

Virginia Champions Day

Virginia Champions Day at Colonial Downs is set for Saturday, August 31. Trainer Mike Trombetta has horses entered in four of the five stakes, making him a strong contender to defend his title as the leading trainer. In 2023, Trombetta secured 18 wins, claiming his first local title. As the 2024 meet enters its final two weeks, Trombetta is currently tied with Mike Stidham at 10 wins.

The day's five turf stakes will feature Virginia-bred, -sired, and -certified horses, with a total of $725,000 in purse money up for grabs. The first race on Saturday is at 1:30 p.m. ET, and the stakes races will be run as races 5 – 9 on the 11-race program.

Larry Johnson and R. D. M. Racing Stable have entered two horses in the $125,000 Jamestown Stakes, both trained by Trombetta. Sail Theseven Seas, the only filly in the 5½-furlong sprint against six freshman boys, is the 6-5 morning line favorite. Despite finishing second in her two starts on dirt tracks, including a recent race in the Keswick, she will debut on the grass in the Jamestown. Wheneveruremember, a Gun Runner colt, has yet to win a race but showed promise on the local turf earlier in the month. Both Wheneveruremember and Sail Theseven Seas encountered traffic in their last races.

“They both had troubled trips,” Trombetta said. “So I’m just hoping that everybody stays out of each other’s way and they have a fair shake at it. I think Sail Theseven Seas has been running with some pretty quality types, so I’m excited to watch this race to see how this goes. Sailtheseven Seas has run very good on the dirt, she hasn’t been on the turf but there is no reason to think she shouldn’t like the grass.”

In the 1-1/16 miles $150,000 Bert Allen Handicap, Sky’s Not Falling, owned by Larry Johnson and R. D. M. Racing Stable, is the 3-1 second choice in the morning line. Sky’s Not Falling has competed in 25 turf races, with 22 of them being at shorter distances than the Bert Allen Handicap. The 6-year-old horse’s only stakes win came in the 2022 Maryland Million Turf Sprint.

“(In terms of best distance), he kind of does everything right,” Trombetta said. “It’s a matter of finding the right spots that are available. With this group of horses, he fits very well. We’ve got to go and try and see what he can do.”

Second against open company last out in the Andy Guest, Larry Johnson’s Hollywood Walk will face a field of nine female turf sprinters in the $150,000 Camptown.

“She’s training very well,” Trombetta said. “I’m happy with her. There are a couple of quality fillies in there as well, but I think she is a good fit. I imagine she’ll be in the top three selections.”

Trombetta's final two stakes runners on Virginia Champions Day are Country Life Farm's Galilei and Larry Johnson's and R. D. M. Racing Stable's Naval Empire. Both horses will be competing in the $150,000 Nellie Mae. Tufani, who won the Brookmeade by 1¾ lengths, is the main contender in the field of 11 older fillies and mares going 1-1/16 miles. However, Galilei outperformed the morning line favorite in last year's Brookmeade.

“(Galilei) seems to run well at Colonial,” Trombetta said. “I hope she’s up for this and can run that kind of race. We’ll take a shot with Naval Empire in there as well, so I think we have chances and we’ll give it a try.”

Though she has only two lifetime wins, Naval Empire is two-time stakes-placed. The 4-year-old Empire Maker filly is a half sibling to Wheneveruremember.

“(Naval Empire) has had glimmers of some big races,” Trombetta said. “She’s kind of lightly raced this season; hopefully she can do some good in the (Nellie Mae).”

Colonial Downs September 1, 2024

Algorithm 1

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Contemplation (5/2)
Place:8 - Elon (7/2)
Show:7 - Oskar Martinez (9/5)
Other contenders:4 - Lord Of Mischief (10/1), 3 - Enzo (6/1), 6 - Grand Kingdom (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win:4 - Libitina (10/1)
Place:6 - Dancing Magic (6/1)
Show:3 - Kip The Distance (30/1)
Other contenders:8 - Oliviera (5/1), 1 - Amalfi Drive (7/2), 5 - Popstyle (5/2)
 
Race 3
Win:6 - Give Me Kisses (7/2)
Place:8 - Chief Lady (6/1)
Show:5 - Kissedbyanangel (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Golden Charm (4/1), 2 - Fee (15/1), 7 - Rose Palace (12/1)
 
Race 4
Win:1 - Stratospheric (2/1)
Place:2 - H M Legacy (8/1)
Show:6 - Mendee (8/1)
Other contenders:7 - Its Satisfactual (10/1), 4 - Volta D'Oro (30/1), 3 - Americandreammaker (5/2)
 
Race 5
Win:2 - Sail Theseven Seas (6/5)
Place:3 - War Humor (6/1)
Show:1 - Go To Bingo (10/1)
Other contenders:6 - Wheneveruremember (8/1), 5 - Dedicated Hero (30/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Power Seeker (4/1)
Place:11 - Passion Play (4/1)
Show:9 - Sky'S Not Falling (3/1)
Other contenders:6 - Evan Harlan (5/2), 8 - Hay Chief (20/1), 7 - Jungle Beast (20/1), 3 - Ruddy Buddy (30/1)
 
Race 7
Win:8 - Bosserati (4/1)
Place:1 - Hollywood Walk (4/1)
Show:6 - Riley Jean (15/1)
Other contenders:7 - Mystic Seaport (5/2), 4 - Gastown Babe (20/1), 10 - Chambeau (8/1)
 
Race 8
Win:9 - Next Episode (12/1)
Place:2 - Tufani (6/5)
Show:7 - Our Strong Vows (30/1)
Other contenders:5 - Galilei (20/1), 11 - Naval Empire (8/1), 1 - Surya (4/1), 3 - Circle Home (20/1)
 
Race 9
Win:7 - Celtic Contender (9/2)
Place:5 - Determined Kingdom (5/2)
Show:2 - Odinson (20/1)
Other contenders:3 - Going Up (12/1), 10 - Spirited Sol (30/1), 9 - Grateful Bred (30/1)
 
Race 10
Win:2 - Readier (6/1)
Place:10 - Just Say When (8/1)
Show:7 - Lucci (5/1)
Other contenders:3 - Charmed (4/1), 9 - Side Eye (5/2), 1 - By The Sey Shore (8/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 20, FPS Midpoint: 20, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 50, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Algorithm 2

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Contemplation (5/2)
Place:8 - Elon (7/2)
Show:7 - Oskar Martinez (9/5)
Other contenders:4 - Lord Of Mischief (10/1), 3 - Enzo (6/1), 6 - Grand Kingdom (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win:4 - Libitina (10/1)
Place:6 - Dancing Magic (6/1)
Show:8 - Oliviera (5/1)
Other contenders:3 - Kip The Distance (30/1), 1 - Amalfi Drive (7/2), 5 - Popstyle (5/2)
 
Race 3
Win:6 - Give Me Kisses (7/2)
Place:8 - Chief Lady (6/1)
Show:4 - Golden Charm (4/1)
Other contenders:5 - Kissedbyanangel (20/1), 2 - Fee (15/1), 7 - Rose Palace (12/1)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - H M Legacy (8/1)
Place:1 - Stratospheric (2/1)
Show:7 - Its Satisfactual (10/1)
Other contenders:6 - Mendee (8/1), 3 - Americandreammaker (5/2), 4 - Volta D'Oro (30/1)
 
Race 5
Win:2 - Sail Theseven Seas (6/5)
Place:3 - War Humor (6/1)
Show:1 - Go To Bingo (10/1)
Other contenders:5 - Dedicated Hero (30/1), 6 - Wheneveruremember (8/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Power Seeker (4/1)
Place:11 - Passion Play (4/1)
Show:6 - Evan Harlan (5/2)
Other contenders:9 - Sky'S Not Falling (3/1), 8 - Hay Chief (20/1), 7 - Jungle Beast (20/1), 2 - Gettin'Downonit (20/1)
 
Race 7
Win:8 - Bosserati (4/1)
Place:1 - Hollywood Walk (4/1)
Show:7 - Mystic Seaport (5/2)
Other contenders:6 - Riley Jean (15/1), 4 - Gastown Babe (20/1), 10 - Chambeau (8/1)
 
Race 8
Win:9 - Next Episode (12/1)
Place:2 - Tufani (6/5)
Show:7 - Our Strong Vows (30/1)
Other contenders:5 - Galilei (20/1), 1 - Surya (4/1), 11 - Naval Empire (8/1), 3 - Circle Home (20/1)
 
Race 9
Win:7 - Celtic Contender (9/2)
Place:5 - Determined Kingdom (5/2)
Show:2 - Odinson (20/1)
Other contenders:3 - Going Up (12/1), 9 - Grateful Bred (30/1), 10 - Spirited Sol (30/1)
 
Race 10
Win:2 - Readier (6/1)
Place:10 - Just Say When (8/1)
Show:7 - Lucci (5/1)
Other contenders:3 - Charmed (4/1), 9 - Side Eye (5/2), 1 - By The Sey Shore (8/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 8, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 5, Overall Pace: 40, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 3, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Algorithm 3

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Contemplation (5/2)
Place:8 - Elon (7/2)
Show:7 - Oskar Martinez (9/5)
Other contenders:4 - Lord Of Mischief (10/1), 3 - Enzo (6/1), 6 - Grand Kingdom (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win:4 - Libitina (10/1)
Place:6 - Dancing Magic (6/1)
Show:8 - Oliviera (5/1)
Other contenders:3 - Kip The Distance (30/1), 5 - Popstyle (5/2), 1 - Amalfi Drive (7/2)
 
Race 3
Win:6 - Give Me Kisses (7/2)
Place:8 - Chief Lady (6/1)
Show:4 - Golden Charm (4/1)
Other contenders:5 - Kissedbyanangel (20/1), 2 - Fee (15/1), 7 - Rose Palace (12/1)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - H M Legacy (8/1)
Place:1 - Stratospheric (2/1)
Show:7 - Its Satisfactual (10/1)
Other contenders:6 - Mendee (8/1), 3 - Americandreammaker (5/2), 4 - Volta D'Oro (30/1)
 
Race 5
Win:2 - Sail Theseven Seas (6/5)
Place:3 - War Humor (6/1)
Show:1 - Go To Bingo (10/1)
Other contenders:7 - Virginia Fitz (3/2), 5 - Dedicated Hero (30/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Power Seeker (4/1)
Place:11 - Passion Play (4/1)
Show:9 - Sky'S Not Falling (3/1)
Other contenders:6 - Evan Harlan (5/2), 8 - Hay Chief (20/1), 7 - Jungle Beast (20/1), 3 - Ruddy Buddy (30/1)
 
Race 7
Win:8 - Bosserati (4/1)
Place:1 - Hollywood Walk (4/1)
Show:7 - Mystic Seaport (5/2)
Other contenders:6 - Riley Jean (15/1), 4 - Gastown Babe (20/1), 10 - Chambeau (8/1)
 
Race 8
Win:9 - Next Episode (12/1)
Place:2 - Tufani (6/5)
Show:7 - Our Strong Vows (30/1)
Other contenders:5 - Galilei (20/1), 11 - Naval Empire (8/1), 1 - Surya (4/1), 3 - Circle Home (20/1)
 
Race 9
Win:7 - Celtic Contender (9/2)
Place:5 - Determined Kingdom (5/2)
Show:2 - Odinson (20/1)
Other contenders:3 - Going Up (12/1), 10 - Spirited Sol (30/1), 9 - Grateful Bred (30/1)
 
Race 10
Win:2 - Readier (6/1)
Place:10 - Just Say When (8/1)
Show:7 - Lucci (5/1)
Other contenders:3 - Charmed (4/1), 9 - Side Eye (5/2), 8 - Olympic Runner (12/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 15, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 55, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Entries index

A G DIAMONDAMALFI DRIVEAMERICANDREAMMAKERBEAUTIFUL GORGEOUSBOSSERATI
CELTIC CONTENDERCHAMBEAUCHARMEDCHARMED WAYCHICKAHOMINY
CIRCLE HOMECONTEMPLATIONDANCING MAGICDEDICATED HERODETERMINED KINGDOM
ENZOEVAN HARLANFEEGALILEIGASTOWN BABE
GIVE ME KISSESGO TO BINGOGOING UPGOLDEN CHARMGRAND KINGDOM
GUAPO AGAINH M LEGACYHAY CHIEFHOBBSHOLLY LOVES STOOPS
ITS SATISFACTUALJUNGLE BEASTJUST SAY WHENKENDAMAKING KONTIE
KISSEDBYANANGELLIBITINALISTENINGLORD OF MISCHIEFLUCCI
MY CHARMMYSTIC SEAPORTNAVAL EMPIRENEXT EPISODENOTION
OLIVIERAOLYMPIC RUNNEROSAOSKAR MARTINEZOUR STRONG VOWS
POPSTYLEPOWER SEEKERPRINCESS BUTTERCUPREADIERREGALED
ROANAN GODDESSROSE PALACERUDDY BUDDYSAIL THESEVEN SEASSAY YOU LOVE ME
SIDE EYESKY'S NOT FALLINGSLIPPIN JIMMYSPENDALOTSPIRITED SOL
STRYDASUMMER ODDSSURYATOLAGA BAYTUFANI
VINSANITYVIRGINIA FITZVOLTA D'OROWAR HUMORWHENEVERUREMEMBER
WOW WHATA SUMMER