Del Mar August 31, 2024 - Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | Aug. 30, 2024, 3:45 p.m.

Five graded stakes mark the day at Del Mar

On a Saturday afternoon, horsemen, horsewomen, and horseplayers have the opportunity to compete in five graded stakes, each offering more than $2 million in purses. Additionally, there are three free rides into the Breeders’ Cup and 11 chances to achieve wealth and fame. This all takes place at Del Mar, one of racing’s great proving grounds, with the backdrop of turf, surf, and sunshine on the beach. The event starts at 1:30 in the afternoon.

On the most important day of racing at the 85th summer stand of the seaside oval, the main event will be the 34th edition of the $1-million FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic. This race covers a mile and a quarter and offers a rich prize, Grade I status, and guaranteed entrance into the $7-million Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Breeders' Cup Classic will be contested for the 41st time at Del Mar on November 2.

Heading Del Mar’s ‘Classic’ is the top-of-the-line racemare Adare Manor, who’ll take on eight male rivals as she wears the role of the favorite in the headliner. Michael Lund Petersen’s 10-time winner and earner of more than $2 million has two special aces in her corner heading postward Saturday – she’s been prepared for the race by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has already visited the winner's circle following this race a record seven times, and she’ll be ridden by Juan Hernandez, who is currently closing in on his fifth shore riding crown.

On Saturday, there will be two $300,000 Grade II turf races. The first race is the mile and three eighths Del Mar Handicap, presented by the Japan Racing Association. This is the oldest stakes race in the track’s history, in its 85th edition. The second race is the 38th running of the Del Mar Mile, which takes place over eight furlongs on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course.

The Del Mar Handicap has drawn a wonderful warrior named Gold Phoenix, who runs in the silks of Little Red Feather Racing and partners, going for his third consecutive victory in the marathon, while the shorter ‘Mile’ get its defending champ in Baffert & Lanni’s Du Jour back to give it another go.   

Next on the menu is the Grade III Green Flash Handicap, which offers a prize of $150,000 and covers five furlongs on the turf. The winner of this race gains entry into the $1-million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar on November 2. Also featured is the $150,000 Grade III Torrey Pines Stakes, highlighting some of the best 3-year-old fillies as they race a mile on the main track.

The stakes five-bagger will lay out like this:  Torrey Pines Stakes (Race 4 – Post approx. 3 p.m.); Del Mar Handicap (Race 5 – Post approx. 3:30 p.m.); Green Flash Handicap (Race 9 – Post approx. 5:30 p.m.); FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic (Race 10 – Post approx. 6 p.m.), and Del Mar Mile (Race 11 – Post approx. 6:30 p.m.).

In addition to all the exceptional stakes racing, Del Mar also will conduct a special ceremony in the winner's circle just prior to Race 4 when Laffit Pincay, Jr., the retired Hall of Fame jockey, will present his coveted Pincay Award for the 20th time. This year’s recipient is another Hall of Famer, trainer Richard Mandella.

Race 10 - Fanduel Racing Pacific Classic Stakes (G1)

Nine horses head to the post

Adare Manor, a mare sired by Uncle Mo and owned by Michael Lund Petersen, will be leading the pack at the $1-million, Grade I FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Saturday. She recently won the Grade I Clement L. Hirsch and has a total earnings of $2,096,000. Despite this being her first race against male horses, the track's morning line maker, Jeff Siegel, is confident in her abilities and has designated her as the 9/5 favorite. 

The Pacific Classic is a "Win & You're In" event with a direct tie to the Breeders' Cup Classic, guaranteeing the winner an automatic entry into the $7 million race. The jockey Juan Hernandez, who leads in wins at Del Mar, will be riding Adare Manor, who is trained by the renowned Bob Baffert. If they win, it will mark Baffert's record-extending eighth victory. Adare Manor will carry 119 pounds with a five-pound sex allowance, while her male competitors will carry 124 pounds. 

The race will be the 10th race on the program with a post time of about 6:05 p.m. 

The recent San Diego Handicap winner, Dr. Venkman, owned by a partnership and trained by Mark Glatt, is considered the chief threat to Adare Manor and is listed at 5/2 on the morning line. Additionally, a last-minute entry, 

There Goes Harvard, was submitted at a cost of $15,000 by the new owners, Aron Wellman of Eclipse Thoroughbred and Gary Barber. The chestnut horse, sired by Will Take Charge, carries a win in the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita two years ago. However, he has only raced four times in the past two years.

Race 10 - Fanduel Racing Pacific Classic Stakes G1 - picks and predictions

Adare Manor

The 9:5 favorite, Bob Baffert’s Adara Manor, has speed to spare, easily topping the lists in all speed categories, negating the argument that “girls will be girls”. Her works have peaked, and her speed is trending up. Feet-per-second figures are steady, with only mid-FPS showing a slight decline. All pace figures, E1, E2, and LP are improving too. In the past ten races, all G1 or G2 caliber affairs, she’s she’s won all but two. There’s really no arguing why she’s the favorite. The overlay of course, makes dropping coin on her a mistake.

Dr. Venkman

Dr. Venkman and II Miraolo provide the best opportunity for an upset to steal the win from Adara Manor. Mark Glatt’s Dr. Venkman’s average speed rating is just below Adara Manor and is improving at a slightly higher rate than Adara Manor. Unlike Adara Manor, all of his FPS figures (early, mid, and late) are improving significantly. His early and mid-pace ratings are improving much faster than Adara Manor, too. And he is undefeated at Del Mar. Can Dr. Venkman pull off the upset. It will be close, but it won’t matter anyway. Like Adara Manor, there will be no overlay on Dr. Venkman.

IL Miracolo

IL Miracolo’s speed has improved greatly in the last three races, putting him only slightly behind Adare Manor in most categories. He had the third-highest average speed, second-highest average speed over the past three races, second-highest speed in the last race, and third-highest speed overall. His speed is trending higher as is his late feet-per-second time. Early and mid FPS are on a slight decline which conincided with the decline in early and mid pace.

The biggest concern we have with Il Miracolo is his inability to close out the race. In-the-money finishes are common; nine out of the last ten were ITM. However, he seems unable to win. We expect he will perform accordingly, finishing in the money (likely third). A win is not out of the question, but we assign a small probability to that outcome.

Katonah

Like Il Miracolo, Katonah is experiencing rapid improvement in speed - among the top four in the past three races. His last works were easy, nothing to write home about. And this will be his second start after a six-month absence from the track.

His speed is seeing an eerily consistent upward trend, which, if it holds true, would put him in the money. Early, mid, and late FPS are rising, and all pace ratings are on a steep upward slope, too. It’s these rapid improvements that make us think he could make the tote board, much more likely than the 8:1 morning line would indicate. If the overlay looks good, he may be a good bet.

Mixto

Mixto is improving in a variety of areas - speed, FPS, pace - but is not of the same caliber as the contenders in this race. He clearly needs some downtime to get his head on straight. Toss.

There Goes Harvard

Oh, how we wish There Goes Harvard would return to form. After winning the Gold Cup G1 in Saratoga back in 2022, his performance cratered, finishing no better than fourth in his last five races. At one time, he was one of the fastest horses in this group, but a poor series of works makes us think he’s done. Speed is erratic but generally trending downward; all FPS calculations and pace ranking are declining. We’ve seen no indication he can turn it around in this race. Toss.

Del Mar August 31, 2024 - AI Picks

Algorithm 1

 

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Grace By Faith (10/1)
Place:2 - Non Compliant (7/2)
Show:3 - Gemadini (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Usha (9/5), 5 - Magale (5/1)
 
Race 2
Win:7 - Pat'S Paddock Pick (4/1)
Place:11 - Pop D'Oro (12/1)
Show:2 - Jonas' Dream (10/1)
Other contenders:8 - Magic Account (3/1), 12 - Pineapple Juice (6/1), 9 - Billy'S Bet (20/1), 10 - Spiritist (30/1)
 
Race 3
Win:9 - Middleburg (3/1)
Place:2 - Broheim (9/2)
Show:4 - Glandford (15/1)
Other contenders:11 - Spycatcher (5/2), 8 - American Only (15/1), 1 - Andreadytorumble (15/1), 10 - Malibu Rocks (9/2)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - Hope Road (4/5)
Place:5 - Grand Slam Smile (8/1)
Show:1 - Soho (10/1)
Other contenders:3 - Desert Rhapsody (4/1), 4 - Omaha Girl (15/1)
 
Race 5
Win:5 - Master Piece (3/1)
Place:2 - Dicey Mo Chara (8/1)
Show:1 - Balnikhov (3/1)
Other contenders:6 - Gold Phoenix (5/2), 3 - Balladeer (20/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Got'M Cot'M (20/1)
Place:2 - Keep Dancin Nick (15/1)
Show:3 - Frank Bullitt (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - I'M A Bad Boy (6/5), 5 - Gozer (8/1), 6 - Three Georges (12/1), 7 - Drop The Bit (30/1)
 
Race 7
Win:5 - Dont Fight The Fed (5/2)
Place:4 - Lord Tripping (10/1)
Show:10 - Capo Luigi (30/1)
Other contenders:8 - Takes Three (10/1), 3 - Haywood (20/1), 1 - Dazzle The Command (30/1), 7 - Size Does Matter (12/1)
 
Race 8
Win:11 - Mclaren Vale (12/1)
Place:9 - Fast Draw Munnings (8/1)
Show:1 - Bright Leaf (4/1)
Other contenders:10 - Scatify (5/1), 7 - Tesoro (6/1), 3 - El Rey Dorado (10/1), 2 - Passarando (8/1)
 
Race 9
Win:2 - Mo Gold (20/1)
Place:5 - Star Racer (20/1)
Show:6 - Noble Reflection (20/1)
Other contenders:8 - No Nay Hudson (6/1), 9 - Connie Swingle (9/2), 12 - Turn On The Jets (5/1), 10 - Motorious (7/2)
 
Race 10
Win:7 - Adare Manor (9/5)
Place:3 - Dr. Venkman (5/2)
Show:1 - Il Miracolo (5/1)
Other contenders:5 - Katonah (8/1), 2 - There Goes Harvard (15/1), 9 - Mixto (20/1)
 
Race 11
Win:9 - First Peace (3/1)
Place:5 - Lammas (12/1)
Show:3 - Du Jour (8/5)
Other contenders:1 - Astronomer (20/1), 4 - Almendares (10/1), 8 - Conclude (6/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 550, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Algorithm 2

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Grace By Faith (10/1)
Place:2 - Non Compliant (7/2)
Show:3 - Gemadini (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Usha (9/5), 5 - Magale (5/1)
 
Race 2
Win:7 - Pat'S Paddock Pick (4/1)
Place:11 - Pop D'Oro (12/1)
Show:2 - Jonas' Dream (10/1)
Other contenders:9 - Billy'S Bet (20/1), 8 - Magic Account (3/1), 10 - Spiritist (30/1), 1 - Street Humor (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:9 - Middleburg (3/1)
Place:2 - Broheim (9/2)
Show:4 - Glandford (15/1)
Other contenders:8 - American Only (15/1), 1 - Andreadytorumble (15/1), 12 - Nation (6/1), 13 - Crazy Cavalier (20/1)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - Hope Road (4/5)
Place:5 - Grand Slam Smile (8/1)
Show:1 - Soho (10/1)
Other contenders:3 - Desert Rhapsody (4/1), 4 - Omaha Girl (15/1)
 
Race 5
Win:5 - Master Piece (3/1)
Place:2 - Dicey Mo Chara (8/1)
Show:1 - Balnikhov (3/1)
Other contenders:6 - Gold Phoenix (5/2), 7 - El Encinal (10/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Got'M Cot'M (20/1)
Place:2 - Keep Dancin Nick (15/1)
Show:3 - Frank Bullitt (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - I'M A Bad Boy (6/5), 5 - Gozer (8/1), 6 - Three Georges (12/1), 7 - Drop The Bit (30/1)
 
Race 7
Win:5 - Dont Fight The Fed (5/2)
Place:8 - Takes Three (10/1)
Show:4 - Lord Tripping (10/1)
Other contenders:9 - Pure Madness (3/1), 10 - Capo Luigi (30/1), 3 - Haywood (20/1), 13 - Moon Ice (8/1)
 
Race 8
Win:11 - Mclaren Vale (12/1)
Place:1 - Bright Leaf (4/1)
Show:10 - Scatify (5/1)
Other contenders:7 - Tesoro (6/1), 3 - El Rey Dorado (10/1), 2 - Passarando (8/1), 8 - Better Than Gold (12/1)
 
Race 9
Win:2 - Mo Gold (20/1)
Place:4 - Daniel'S Magic (12/1)
Show:8 - No Nay Hudson (6/1)
Other contenders:5 - Star Racer (20/1), 9 - Connie Swingle (9/2), 6 - Noble Reflection (20/1), 3 - Sassy Nature (15/1)
 
Race 10
Win:7 - Adare Manor (9/5)
Place:1 - Il Miracolo (5/1)
Show:3 - Dr. Venkman (5/2)
Other contenders:5 - Katonah (8/1), 2 - There Goes Harvard (15/1), 8 - None Above The Law (20/1)
 
Race 11
Win:9 - First Peace (3/1)
Place:3 - Du Jour (8/5)
Show:4 - Almendares (10/1)
Other contenders:5 - Lammas (12/1), 1 - Astronomer (20/1), 8 - Conclude (6/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 8, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 5, Overall Pace: 90, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 3, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Algorithm 3

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Grace By Faith (10/1)
Place:2 - Non Compliant (7/2)
Show:3 - Gemadini (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Usha (9/5), 5 - Magale (5/1)
 
Race 2
Win:7 - Pat'S Paddock Pick (4/1)
Place:11 - Pop D'Oro (12/1)
Show:2 - Jonas' Dream (10/1)
Other contenders:9 - Billy'S Bet (20/1), 8 - Magic Account (3/1), 10 - Spiritist (30/1), 1 - Street Humor (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:9 - Middleburg (3/1)
Place:2 - Broheim (9/2)
Show:4 - Glandford (15/1)
Other contenders:12 - Nation (6/1), 13 - Crazy Cavalier (20/1), 1 - Andreadytorumble (15/1), 6 - Joyrider (4/1)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - Hope Road (4/5)
Place:5 - Grand Slam Smile (8/1)
Show:3 - Desert Rhapsody (4/1)
Other contenders:1 - Soho (10/1), 4 - Omaha Girl (15/1)
 
Race 5
Win:7 - El Encinal (10/1)
Place:5 - Master Piece (3/1)
Show:2 - Dicey Mo Chara (8/1)
Other contenders:1 - Balnikhov (3/1), 6 - Gold Phoenix (5/2)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Got'M Cot'M (20/1)
Place:2 - Keep Dancin Nick (15/1)
Show:3 - Frank Bullitt (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - I'M A Bad Boy (6/5), 5 - Gozer (8/1), 6 - Three Georges (12/1), 7 - Drop The Bit (30/1)
 
Race 7
Win:9 - Pure Madness (3/1)
Place:5 - Dont Fight The Fed (5/2)
Show:8 - Takes Three (10/1)
Other contenders:4 - Lord Tripping (10/1), 6 - Yo Time (6/1), 10 - Capo Luigi (30/1), 13 - Moon Ice (8/1)
 
Race 8
Win:11 - Mclaren Vale (12/1)
Place:1 - Bright Leaf (4/1)
Show:7 - Tesoro (6/1)
Other contenders:3 - El Rey Dorado (10/1), 10 - Scatify (5/1), 2 - Passarando (8/1), 8 - Better Than Gold (12/1)
 
Race 9
Win:2 - Mo Gold (20/1)
Place:4 - Daniel'S Magic (12/1)
Show:8 - No Nay Hudson (6/1)
Other contenders:9 - Connie Swingle (9/2), 5 - Star Racer (20/1), 3 - Sassy Nature (15/1), 12 - Turn On The Jets (5/1)
 
Race 10
Win:7 - Adare Manor (9/5)
Place:1 - Il Miracolo (5/1)
Show:3 - Dr. Venkman (5/2)
Other contenders:2 - There Goes Harvard (15/1), 5 - Katonah (8/1), 8 - None Above The Law (20/1)
 
Race 11
Win:9 - First Peace (3/1)
Place:3 - Du Jour (8/5)
Show:1 - Astronomer (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Almendares (10/1), 8 - Conclude (6/1), 5 - Lammas (12/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 15, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 55, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Del Mar August 31, 2024 Index of Entries

ADARE MANORALMENDARESAMERICAN ONLYANDREADYTORUMBLEASTRONOMER
BALLADEERBALNIKHOVBEER MONEYBETTER THAN GOLDBIG GEORGE
BILLY'S BETBOUJEE BEACHBRAVE BLENDBRIGHT LEAFBROHEIM
CAROL'S COMICCHARMZ AWAYCONCLUDECONNIE SWINGLECRAZY CAVALIER
DANIEL'S MAGICDAZZLE THE COMMANDDESERT RHAPSODYDICEY MO CHARADONT FIGHT THE FED
DROP THE BITDU JOURDUAL THREATEL ENCINALEL REY DORADO
EXAULTEDFAST BUCKFAST DRAW MUNNINGSFIRST PEACEFLASHIEST
FREE AGAINFULL SERRANOGEMADINIGLANDFORDGOLD PHOENIX
GOZERGRACE BY FAITHGRAND SLAM SMILEHALFWAY LINEHAYWOOD
HOTHEADI'M A BAD BOYIL MIRACOLOIRIDEOJOHNNY PODRES
JOYRIDERKATONAHKEEP DANCIN NICKLAMMASLORD TRIPPING
MAGIC ACCOUNTMALIBU ROCKSMARGARITA GIRLMASTER PIECEMCGREGOR LAKE
MIDDLEBURGMIXTOMO GOLDMOON ICEMOTORIOUS
NATIONNO NAY HUDSONNOBLE REFLECTIONNON COMPLIANTNONE ABOVE THE LAW
OMAHA GIRLPASSARANDOPAT'S PADDOCK PICKPINEAPPLE JUICEPOP D'ORO
REINCARNATEROCKEMPERORSASSY NATURESCATIFYSIZE DOES MATTER
SPEARFISHSPEEDY WILSONSPIRITISTSPYCATCHERSTAR RACER
STYLISHLYACCLAIMEDTAKES THREETESOROTHE BIG CHEESEOLATHERE GOES HARVARD
TOP GUN CLASSICTURN ON THE JETSULTRA POWERUNCONQUERABLE KEENUSHA
YO TIME