You have no new notifications
Pick Pony | March 21, 2024, 1:54 p.m.
Often the horse with the best speed figures does not win due to the influence of pace.
Here are typical starting positions and poles for the various distances.
Here are the starting points on the Belmont track which is a slightly larger oval.
Here are the poles:
Eighth poles. Beginning with the 7/8 pole, each is 1/8th mile-closer to the finish. Eighths, or furlongs, are the basic units of racetrack measurement. There are 660 feet or 220 yards in a furlong.
Stretch Call. One-eighth mile from the finish line.
Quarter Pole. One-quarter mile from the finish line. There are 1320 feet or 440 yards in a quarter-mile.
Half-Mile Pole. One-half mile to the finish line. There are 2640 feet or 880 yards in a half-mile.
Three-quarter Pole. Three-quarters of a mile, or six furlongs to the finish line. There are 3960 feet in six furlongs.
Sixteenth Poles. Subdivides the eighth poles. There are 330 feet or 110 yards in a sixteenth of a mile.
The Pace Call is the penultimate point of call, followed by the stretch call and the finish position. A horse maintaining contention up to the pace call, irrespective of its final position, indicates good form. An in-form horse, irrespective of its finish position, would have offered a challenge at either the pace call (generally the point in the race with a quarter-mile remaining), or the stretch call (the last call before the finish).
And here are the points of calls at the various distances.
The term "turn-time" in a 6 furlong race refers to the second fraction, which is mostly around a turn. This is a significant part of the race.
Races of 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs are essentially full-on sprints. The best way to handicap these is with the final time.
For races that are over 1 1/16 miles, pace ratings are not reliable. In these longer races, stamina and class should be taken into account.
In racing, split times are also referred to as sectional times. Because of parallax error, sectional times are difficult to measure accurately by hand. However, they can be measured electronically with light beams or saddle-cloth transponders.
The first fraction of a seven-furlong race is the opening furlong. This is when the runners reach their cruising speed and find their place in the pack.
The second and third fractions cover the next four furlongs, ending at the two-furlong pole. These are known as the static fractions, where runners typically maintain their positions. Take note of horses showing improved times in this part of the race, as this could show they're in better physical form.
In the fourth fraction, the field moves from the two-furlong pole to the furlong marker. This is when horses break away from the pack, as jockeys try to get into a good position for their final push in the last fraction.
The final fraction shows which horse has the endurance to win.
More commonly, horse racing pace stats break the race into three fractions as follows:
Fraction #2 is known as the turn-time. Runners that exceed par for the middle fraction tend to to accumulate high win percentages.
A race run in even fractions allows for a fair assessment of the runners' merit. For instance, if initial fractions are too fast, early pace horses will tire more swiftly. On the other hand, if the opening fractions are slow, off-pace horses are disadvantaged as front-runners gain an advantage without much exertion.
Good times for various distances, not including consideration of surface, are based on 12 seconds per furlong up to and including 1 mile, and 14 seconds per furlong past 1 mile.
Speed figures are useful for assessing a horse's quality. However, pace handicapping supporters argue that the race's progression influences a horse's performance more than past speed figures.
On a typical day, the dirt surface is labeled as fast, which essentially means hard. Horses reach peak speed quickly on such surfaces and then gradually slow down.
Sometimes, it appears as if some horses speed up during specific race sections or the stretch. However, it's an illusion. The horses that seem to accelerate are actually slowing down less than the horses they surpass.
Pace handicapping allows bettors to predict which horse is likely to start fast and maintain speed. This impacts the race's progression, and as we'll see later, this dynamic is crucial.
Horses with top speed and quick acceleration are known as EARLY speed horses, often abbreviated to E. These horses burst from the gate and reach top speed fast, overtaking slower ones. They tend not to overtake others, so they either win on the lead or not at all.
Towards the end of the race, type-E horses often slow down, providing an opportunity for other horses to catch up, unless the E horse has conserved enough energy. In a race with multiple Early Speed horses, a pace duel can exhaust the E horses, allowing late-comers to overtake.
Races with numerous evenly-matched frontrunners usually favor pressers and closers. Meanwhile, a race with a single or dominant frontrunner often ends with that horse winning wire-to-wire, eliminating other E horses. If the dominant early pace horse meets the distance, class, and bias requirements of a specific track and is fairly priced, it's a good bet.
Identify lone speed horses by checking if they take an early lead. Look at the length of their lead and how it impacts their final position. Horses that consistently take an early lead and can maintain a 2-3 length lead without early challengers often win wire to wire. This is one of the best bets in racing.
Frontrunners who have consistently won their fields can lose if faced with pace pressure in their next start. However, they often win at high odds when the pressure is off.
Remember, early-pace horses that can't take the lead should be considered non-contenders.
Jockeys on turf surfaces often pull their horses towards the back at the start of the race. Being in the lead is usually not advantageous on turf due to the horse’s herd mentality on grass. The lead horses tend to slow the pace. By the end of the race, all riders push their horses to full speed. Stalkers and Closers tend to do well on this surface.
Pressers have enough initial speed to stay close to the early leaders in the first part of the race, typically within one to three lengths. They maintain a good position, usually 3rd or 4th place, ready to strike if the Early speed horses falter.
Pressers can be hard to categorize as they often have races that show them as Early speed or Stalkers.
They are generally reliable. They may occasionally burn out chasing a too fast pace.
Closers may be significantly behind the leaders in the early stages of the race, often in the last third of the field. However, they maintain their speed better and in the final stages of the race, they often appear to be flying past other horses.
Seven furlongs is an ideal distance for closers at most racetracks. That’s not to say early runners do not win at this distance, but a general tendency favors the closer.
Closers often have fewer wins compared to other placings because they are dependent on the pace and must navigate through the traffic of horses in front of them.
To identify a horse's pace style, start by examining their past performance and running lines in previous races.
The running line shows the horse's position relative to others throughout a race. It indicates the horse's position at each stage of the race, and how far ahead or behind the leader they were.
A horse with early speed will often be leading, or near the front, in most of their running lines at the first and second call. If a horse regularly leads at the first call or is within one length of the leader, they're considered an early speed type.
Conversely, if a horse is typically 3rd, 4th, or 5th and around 2-3 lengths from the leader at the first and second call, they're a presser. While they lack the speed to lead, they stay within striking distance.
Horses consistently more than 3 lengths from the leader and towards the back of the pack are stalkers.
While most horses maintain their style regardless of race distance, you should primarily consider running lines for the distance of the current race (sprint or route).
Track bias and pace handicapping are key elements to consider when analyzing racetracks. "Track bias" refers to the advantage certain horses gain due to their pace style or their starting position.
For example, a horse on the outer part of the starting gate displaying early speed might have an upper hand. This isn't a deliberate choice by the racetrack operators. Certain factors like soil composition or track configuration can favor specific pace styles, and there's not much operators can do about it. Efforts to balance the bias, like watering or layering, often prove futile. Most track biases are consistent.
In the USA, most dirt tracks, particularly sprint distances, tend to favor early speed horses. In some tracks, 30-40% of the sprint races are won wire-to-wire. All a horse might need is good early speed and an advantageous post position.
Understanding if your chosen track favors a particular style and knowing each horse's pace style in the race is crucial.
Knowing about a track's bias can enable you to spot profitable betting opportunities by identifying horses that fit the bias.
To identify track bias, analyze race results. Collate winning post positions and running lines for different distances. However, this is time-consuming.
Several services provide this information. Weekly track bias data is available for free at Brisnet.com, or purchase bias reports from Equibase. The cost is offset if the bias assists in winning a bet or quickens handicapping.
Track bias can change due to alterations to the tracks or weather, season, etc. So, regularly check track bias.
Below are major racetracks with some track bias. Verify the bias before betting as it may change.
AQUEDUCT TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)CHURCHILL DOWNS TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)DEL MAR TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)GULFSTREAM PARK TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)MONMOUTH PARK TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints)MOUNTAINEER PARK TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)PENN NATIONAL TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints)TURF PARADISE TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)WOODBINE TRACK BIAS: Presser horses in sprints, pressers/stalkers in routes
AQUEDUCT TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)
CHURCHILL DOWNS TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)
DEL MAR TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)
GULFSTREAM PARK TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)
MONMOUTH PARK TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints)
MOUNTAINEER PARK TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)
PENN NATIONAL TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints)
TURF PARADISE TRACK BIAS: Early speed horses (sprints and routes)
WOODBINE TRACK BIAS: Presser horses in sprints, pressers/stalkers in routes
Track bias is significant but not the sole factor. Don't risk everything on it. Continue to consider the basics and ensure the horse matches in terms of speed figures and class, even if the horse's pace style is suited to the track.
Pace handicapping not only helps identify horses that may benefit or suffer from track bias, but it also uncovers situations where a good horse, even a favorite, could have their chances ruined by the pace.
Pace handicapping scenarios let you anticipate how the race will pan out and identify which horses might experience a positive or negative impact. If a favorite is negatively affected, this could present a prime betting opportunity, as casual bettors may overlook the issue.
To analyze a race in terms of pace, follow these steps:
Unless track bias strongly opposes early speed type horses, the horse will likely take an easy lead and face minimal pressure throughout the race. This allows the horse to conserve energy for the latter parts of the race to ward off competitors.
In this situation, if the lone early speed horse is the favorite, it will likely yield little value. Everyone will favor the horse, resulting in small odds. Despite the high chance of winning, the risk-reward ratio is not favorable.
However, if the sole early speed horse is not the favorite, it presents a compelling betting opportunity. The favorite is usually overbet by the public, giving any other horse with a decent chance theoretical value. If a horse is the only speed and is favored by track bias due to its position, this is a great betting opportunity at most US tracks.
Conversely, if multiple horses are vying for the lead, they will post fast fractions early in the race, exerting a lot of energy and becoming stressed. These horses will likely tire in the stretch or earlier, making it easy for horses that have conserved energy to overtake them.
In this scenario, if the favorite is among the horses fighting for the lead, there's a good chance it will tire during the race. Bet on horses that come from behind in this scenario. The choice depends on the pace scenario and traditional handicapping techniques.
Consider betting against a favorite likely to be negatively impacted by the pace scenario.
Betting on a horse that only has a strong third fraction is not ideal. The only time this type of horse is a good choice is when early pace and pressure scenarios completely fail.
A horse that ranks high in both early pace (first call) and sustained pace (second and third call) is a solid bet.
In American horse racing, a sprinter running a longer distance for the first time is a strong betting angle. American horses and tracks are built for speed. For this betting angle, choose a sprinter that leads early, not one that lags behind. The horse should lead from the start and maintain a slow early pace.
If the pace is expected to be very high (with several horses competing for the lead and likely moving fast early on), stalker horses might be in an excellent position to overtake them all in the stretch.
If the pace is projected to be intense but reasonable, consider selecting a presser-type horse, who is likely to be close behind the leaders and in a good striking position.
Determining the pace of a horse race can be challenging and requires thorough data interpretation. It's easy to identify the pace style of individual horses, but assessing whether the overall pace will be hot is more complex.
For instance, if a horse significantly outpaces the others early on or is notably superior, the pace style of the other horses becomes less relevant.
To effectively analyze the early and late speed of horses, you need pace figures. These figures, available from sources like the Daily Racing Form and Equibase, provide a standardized method of comparing early and late speeds across different horses, tracks, and times.
Keep in mind, a horse's pace figures can greatly vary between races as they are influenced by the other horses' actions.
Pace figures can indicate which horses can maintain fast fractions at the start. If multiple horses with similar figures are racing, it may result in a hot pace. In such a scenario, consider betting on a presser or stalker.
Pace figures also highlight horses that can keep up with the action or post impressive times in the last quarter and stretch, potentially overtaking the others.
In American horse racing, early speed is often favored, making it crucial to identify the fastest early speed horses, especially at tracks with a strong bias.
Regardless of the track's bias, pace significantly affects race outcomes, so it's essential to consider pace handicapping before betting.
An accurate pace analysis can give you a good understanding of how a race might unfold and which horses could be affected positively or negatively.
Having access to pace figures can also help identify which horses are likely to be most affected, allowing you to bet accordingly.
On high-profile race days, many inexperienced bettors place their wagers, often favoring the favorites or low odds horses. This behavior allows experienced handicappers to profit by using pace handicapping and understanding track bias.
This knowledge can help you identify longshots with decent chances of winning or races where the favorite is not as strong as it may seem. These races are often the most profitable to bet on. With the information provided on pace handicapping, you should be better equipped to capitalize on these opportunities.
To effectively use pace figures, identify patterns in a horse’s past performances and compare them to the current situation. The focus should be on the relationship between all horse Timeforms in the race, not just the target horse's Timeform.
For instance, if two early speed horses exhaust each other while battling for the lead, a horse under pressure in the race stands a good chance of overtaking them.
TimeformUS Pace Figures are often paired with TimeformUS Early and Late Pace Ratings. If a race has many front-runners from fast-paced races (red color-coded pace figures) and a fast pace is expected again, you can use TimeformUS Late Pace Ratings to find the horse with the best closing speed.
Basic Formulator filters include those for surface and distance. For a dirt race, these filters can exclude turf and synthetic races from the PPs. They can also filter the PPs to show how horses have performed at similar distances. By focusing on the most relevant past performances, pace figures can help predict successful or poor performances under similar conditions.
The “Early Pace” filter is another useful tool. It allows you to view races where horses “raced on the lead,” or “raced within two lengths” of the leader. This is useful when assessing front-runners and stalkers. Paired with TimeformUS Pace Figures, this filter can help evaluate what kind of pace scenarios have benefited speed horses in the past. For example, if a horse has always had slow paces when using front-running tactics, and a fast pace is predicted this time, that horse may be a bad bet.
Formulator’s different view options can help analyze extreme pace situations. Users can choose to view a race’s interior fractions in incremental splits instead of elapsed time. This feature helps connect the dots when TimeformUS Pace Figures indicate an extreme pace situation, by showing which parts of a race had particularly fast or slow interior splits.