Gulfstream Park September 14, 2024 - Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | Sept. 13, 2024, 12:20 p.m.

Race analysis and commentary

Hallandale Beach Stakes

C2 Racing Stable, Kuehne Racing and Mark Corrado’s promising juvenile Andrea, coming off a head-turning debut victory last month, steps up to stakes company for her second start in Saturday’s $95,000 Hallandale Beach at Gulfstream Park.

The one-mile Hallandale Beach for 2-year-old fillies drew a field of 10 and serves as the headliner on an 11-race program that begins at 12:55 p.m.

By multiple graded-stakes winner Thousand Words out of the Tiznow mare Photoplay, Andrea was purchased for $105,000 as a 2-year-old in training out of the OBS sale in April. She breezed nine times at Gulfstream for her July 26 debut, a 5 ½-furlong maiden special weight on the main track.

“She had trained well so we expected a good performance, but you never know until you run them,” trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. said. “She bounced out of the race well, she’s been training well and had a good work, so we’re excited to see how she handles the extra distance.”

Andrea led at every call in her unveiling, drawing off to win by 6 ½ lengths as the favorite. She was entered but scratched from the $1 million Untapable sprinting 6 ½ furlongs Sept. 8 on the undulating turf course at Kentucky Downs.

“She won well, and we had her entered at Kentucky Downs,” Joseph said. “We really didn’t want to change the surface and go experiment at a track that she’s never been on, so we decided to stay home and stretch her out in distance and see how she gets on.”

Emisael Jaramillo, up for her debut, gets the return call on Andrea from Post 5.

“She broke really quickly last time so she just kind of found herself there. I don’t think she has to have the lead, but going a mile stretching out you would think she should be forwardly placed if she breaks as good again,” Joseph said. “She seems like she’s a deserving favorite and if she runs as well as she did first time, she should look pretty good.”

Trainer Carlos David entered a pair of last-out winners in Mom’s Martini and Miss Mary Nell. Like Andrea, Shea D Boys Stable’s Mom’s Martini comes in off a debut triumph, rallying from off the pace to capture a five-furlong maiden special weight by three-quarters of a length over a sloppy and sealed Gulfstream main track Aug. 9.

“I really was trying to run her at Saratoga and ended up putting her here. The owners live here and they really just wanted to see her win, and I think [jockey] Miguel [Vasquez] rode her really good,” David said. “The track was a little off that day and I think she did it easy. She didn’t really get a great number out of that race, so she still has something to prove.”

Palm Beach Racing’s Florida homebred Miss Mary Nell switches back to the main track after graduating in her third start, a 7 ½-furlong maiden special weight Aug. 10 on the Gulfstream turf, where she won by 3 ½ lengths. Her first two races came on dirt where she ran third and fourth, respectively.

“I wanted to stretch her out on the dirt. She hasn’t run bad on the dirt,” David said. “They didn’t have a race going a mile on the dirt so I ended up on the grass and it worked out really good. She handled the two turns well, so I think she fits this race as well.”

Vasquez will be back aboard Mom’s Martini from Post 8 while Jose Ferrer gets the return call on Miss Mary Nell from the rail.

“It’s the first time they’re going to go up against winners, so they’ve got something to prove, but they’re both doing really good,” David said. “They both breezed the other day, five-eighths [of a mile] in 1:01 together. They’re workmates and hopefully we get the same in the race.

“They like to be in front, both of them, so I took one off the pace a little bit and tried to come on at the end and it was a good workout,” he added. “I think Miss Mary Nell might be a little more forward than the other one so we’ll see. When you’re on the rail you’re kind of forced to break out of there.”

Whatintheliteral, owned by horseOlogy Racing and Craig Steinhart, owns one win from five starts, a front-running head triumph in the 5 ½-furlong Astoria June 6 at Saratoga for trainer Jena Antonucci. Since then the Lord Nelson filly stumbled badly and lost rider Javier Castellano at the start of the July 11 Schuylerville and was seventh in the Aug. 4 Adirondack (G3).

Live Oak Plantation homebred Souper Zonda, a daughter of Curlin trained by fellow Hall of Famer Mark Casse, rallied for a neck maiden special weight triumph going 7 ½ furlongs in her only prior start July 19 on the Gulfstream turf. Kip the Distance, Del Rosario, Valiant Kiss, Brenna and Garuda are also entered.

Algorithms

Algorithm 1

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Alia'S Faith (30/1)
Place:2 - Loving Gaze (7/2)
Show:3 - Sweet Sash (4/1)
Other contenders:4 - Game Changer Jolie (10/1), 5 - In Timing (3/1), 6 - Instagrand Girl (15/1)
 
Race 2
Win:6 - Lace Curtain (8/1)
Place:4 - Shiloh (9/5)
Show:8 - Holy Kingdom (2/1)
Other contenders:3 - Belly Dance (20/1), 1 - Vanishing Wish (9/2), 7 - Mrs. Cash Man (12/1)
 
Race 3
Win:8 - Bird Wildcat (20/1)
Place:4 - Jigsaw (12/1)
Show:7 - Gooch Go Bragh (9/5)
Other contenders:3 - Wicked Genius (3/1), 2 - Speight'Spercomete (6/1), 6 - Kartano (9/2)
 
Race 4
Win:1 - Words Of Fortune (30/1)
Place:2 - Stone Cold Flex (20/1)
Show:3 - Oasis Prince (12/1)
Other contenders:4 - Herecomesdapeach (8/1), 5 - Saint Cloud (3/1), 6 - Gallant Knight (6/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Hey River (4/1)
Place:2 - Ice The Kicker (9/2)
Show:7 - Belly Of Jelly (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - Bandero (5/2), 10 - Forty Flash (15/1), 3 - Rowdy Jess (20/1)
 
Race 6
Win:12 - Iron Man Jimmy (2/1)
Place:15 - Giuro (6/1)
Show:7 - Tiz The Coast (15/1)
Other contenders:6 - Youramystyle (12/1), 8 - Immense Faith (9/2), 3 - Moral Agency (15/1), 5 - Sting Music (6/1), 10 - Intolerable (8/1)
 
Race 7
Win:2 - Lou (3/1)
Place:3 - To The Max (10/1)
Show:6 - Win With Faith (20/1)
Other contenders:9 - Iron Hand (5/2), 4 - Fit To Fire (15/1), 5 - Excuses (10/1)
 
Race 8
Win:7 - Black Fury (8/1)
Place:1 - Morgan Point (6/1)
Show:5 - Beastly Speed (9/5)
Other contenders:4 - Go Billy Go (12/1), 6 - Holiday Fantasy (15/1), 3 - Belts 'N Brooks (12/1)
 
Race 9
Win:5 - Cadron Settlement (9/2)
Place:4 - Unequivocally (6/1)
Show:3 - Imapeppa (8/1)
Other contenders:7 - Galipan (30/1), 11 - Cajun Fool (20/1), 6 - First Team (5/1), 10 - Bold Looker (3/1)
 
Race 10 - Hallandale Beach Stakes
Win:1 - Miss Mary Nell (6/1)
Place:3 - Kip The Distance (30/1)
Show:2 - Whatintheliteral (6/1)
Other contenders:9 - Brenna (20/1), 4 - Del Rosario (20/1), 6 - Valiant Kiss (15/1)
 
Race 11
Win:2 - Ocala Rocket (5/2)
Place:10 - Cajun'S Choice (15/1)
Show:8 - First Shot Fired (3/1)
Other contenders:4 - Fortheloveofart (7/2), 11 - Dixie Preach (15/1), 7 - Max Forward Speed (20/1), 5 - No Plebeian (12/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 500, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Algorithm 2

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Alia'S Faith (30/1)
Place:2 - Loving Gaze (7/2)
Show:3 - Sweet Sash (4/1)
Other contenders:4 - Game Changer Jolie (10/1), 5 - In Timing (3/1), 6 - Instagrand Girl (15/1)
 
Race 2
Win:6 - Lace Curtain (8/1)
Place:4 - Shiloh (9/5)
Show:8 - Holy Kingdom (2/1)
Other contenders:3 - Belly Dance (20/1), 1 - Vanishing Wish (9/2), 7 - Mrs. Cash Man (12/1)
 
Race 3
Win:8 - Bird Wildcat (20/1)
Place:4 - Jigsaw (12/1)
Show:7 - Gooch Go Bragh (9/5)
Other contenders:3 - Wicked Genius (3/1), 6 - Kartano (9/2), 2 - Speight'Spercomete (6/1)
 
Race 4
Win:1 - Words Of Fortune (30/1)
Place:2 - Stone Cold Flex (20/1)
Show:3 - Oasis Prince (12/1)
Other contenders:4 - Herecomesdapeach (8/1), 5 - Saint Cloud (3/1), 6 - Gallant Knight (6/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Hey River (4/1)
Place:2 - Ice The Kicker (9/2)
Show:7 - Belly Of Jelly (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - Bandero (5/2), 10 - Forty Flash (15/1), 9 - Silent And Violent (3/1)
 
Race 6
Win:12 - Iron Man Jimmy (2/1)
Place:15 - Giuro (6/1)
Show:7 - Tiz The Coast (15/1)
Other contenders:6 - Youramystyle (12/1), 8 - Immense Faith (9/2), 3 - Moral Agency (15/1), 5 - Sting Music (6/1), 13 - Old Flag (4/1)
 
Race 7
Win:2 - Lou (3/1)
Place:3 - To The Max (10/1)
Show:6 - Win With Faith (20/1)
Other contenders:9 - Iron Hand (5/2), 5 - Excuses (10/1), 4 - Fit To Fire (15/1)
 
Race 8
Win:7 - Black Fury (8/1)
Place:1 - Morgan Point (6/1)
Show:5 - Beastly Speed (9/5)
Other contenders:4 - Go Billy Go (12/1), 6 - Holiday Fantasy (15/1), 8 - Power Humor (4/1)
 
Race 9
Win:5 - Cadron Settlement (9/2)
Place:4 - Unequivocally (6/1)
Show:3 - Imapeppa (8/1)
Other contenders:6 - First Team (5/1), 11 - Cajun Fool (20/1), 7 - Galipan (30/1), 10 - Bold Looker (3/1)
 
Race 10
Win:1 - Miss Mary Nell (6/1)
Place:3 - Kip The Distance (30/1)
Show:2 - Whatintheliteral (6/1)
Other contenders:9 - Brenna (20/1), 4 - Del Rosario (20/1), 6 - Valiant Kiss (15/1)
 
Race 11
Win:2 - Ocala Rocket (5/2)
Place:8 - First Shot Fired (3/1)
Show:4 - Fortheloveofart (7/2)
Other contenders:10 - Cajun'S Choice (15/1), 11 - Dixie Preach (15/1), 6 - Rapscallion (5/1), 7 - Max Forward Speed (20/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 80, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 50,

 

Algorithm 3

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Alia'S Faith (30/1)
Place:2 - Loving Gaze (7/2)
Show:3 - Sweet Sash (4/1)
Other contenders:4 - Game Changer Jolie (10/1), 5 - In Timing (3/1), 6 - Instagrand Girl (15/1)
 
Race 2
Win:6 - Lace Curtain (8/1)
Place:4 - Shiloh (9/5)
Show:1 - Vanishing Wish (9/2)
Other contenders:7 - Mrs. Cash Man (12/1), 3 - Belly Dance (20/1), 8 - Holy Kingdom (2/1)
 
Race 3
Win:8 - Bird Wildcat (20/1)
Place:4 - Jigsaw (12/1)
Show:7 - Gooch Go Bragh (9/5)
Other contenders:3 - Wicked Genius (3/1), 6 - Kartano (9/2), 2 - Speight'Spercomete (6/1)
 
Race 4
Win:1 - Words Of Fortune (30/1)
Place:2 - Stone Cold Flex (20/1)
Show:3 - Oasis Prince (12/1)
Other contenders:4 - Herecomesdapeach (8/1), 5 - Saint Cloud (3/1), 6 - Gallant Knight (6/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Hey River (4/1)
Place:10 - Forty Flash (15/1)
Show:7 - Belly Of Jelly (8/1)
Other contenders:2 - Ice The Kicker (9/2), 4 - Bandero (5/2), 5 - Flatter Me (12/1)
 
Race 6
Win:12 - Iron Man Jimmy (2/1)
Place:15 - Giuro (6/1)
Show:7 - Tiz The Coast (15/1)
Other contenders:6 - Youramystyle (12/1), 8 - Immense Faith (9/2), 3 - Moral Agency (15/1), 13 - Old Flag (4/1), 9 - Lomachenko (10/1)
 
Race 7
Win:2 - Lou (3/1)
Place:3 - To The Max (10/1)
Show:6 - Win With Faith (20/1)
Other contenders:9 - Iron Hand (5/2), 5 - Excuses (10/1), 4 - Fit To Fire (15/1)
 
Race 8
Win:7 - Black Fury (8/1)
Place:1 - Morgan Point (6/1)
Show:5 - Beastly Speed (9/5)
Other contenders:4 - Go Billy Go (12/1), 8 - Power Humor (4/1), 6 - Holiday Fantasy (15/1)
 
Race 9
Win:4 - Unequivocally (6/1)
Place:5 - Cadron Settlement (9/2)
Show:3 - Imapeppa (8/1)
Other contenders:7 - Galipan (30/1), 11 - Cajun Fool (20/1), 6 - First Team (5/1), 9 - Big Toby (30/1)
 
Race 10
Win:1 - Miss Mary Nell (6/1)
Place:3 - Kip The Distance (30/1)
Show:2 - Whatintheliteral (6/1)
Other contenders:9 - Brenna (20/1), 6 - Valiant Kiss (15/1), 4 - Del Rosario (20/1)
 
Race 11
Win:2 - Ocala Rocket (5/2)
Place:4 - Fortheloveofart (7/2)
Show:8 - First Shot Fired (3/1)
Other contenders:11 - Dixie Preach (15/1), 10 - Cajun'S Choice (15/1), 5 - No Plebeian (12/1), 6 - Rapscallion (5/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 600,

 

Entries

ALIA'S FAITHAMBUSHEDANDREAASTIN STYLEBANDERO
BELLY DANCEBELLY OF JELLYBELTS 'N BROOKSBIG TOBYBIRD WILDCAT
BLUFFBOLD LOOKERBRENNABUBBLES UPCADRON SETTLEMENT
CAJUN'S CHOICECOACH ABERNATHYDEL ROSARIODIXIE PREACHDYNAMIC EMPIRE
EUPHORIA STAREXCUSESFIRST SHOT FIREDFIRST TEAMFIT TO FIRE
FORTHELOVEOFARTFORTY FLASHGALIPANGALLANT KNIGHTGAME CHANGER JOLIE
GEMSTONE WARRIORGENTLEMAN CALLERGIUROGO BILLY GOGOLDEN VALLEY
GRAND DANIELGUAIOHERECOMESDAPEACHHEY RIVERHOLIDAY FANTASY
ICE THE KICKERIMAPEPPAIMMENSE FAITHIN OTHER WORDSIN TIMING
INITFORTHELOVEINSTAGRAND GIRLINTOLERABLEIRON HANDIRON MAN JIMMY
JOE FROM KIEVKARTANOKIP THE DISTANCELACE CURTAINLET'S GO LIAM
LOMACHENKOLOULOVING GAZEMAJOR KINGMAX FORWARD SPEED
MOM'S MARTINIMORAL AGENCYMORGAN POINTMR TYSONMRS. CASH MAN
NO PLEBEIANNOBLE STAROASIS PRINCEOCALA ROCKETOLD FLAG
POSEIDONS MYTHPOWER HUMORRAPSCALLIONROWDY JESSSAINT CLOUD
SILENT AND VIOLENTSNEAKY SNEAKYSOUPER ZONDASPEIGHT'SPERCOMETESTING MUSIC
SUMMER STORM STRICSWEET SASHTIZ THE COASTTO THE MAXUNEQUIVOCALLY
VALIANT KISSVANISHING WISHWHATINTHELITERALWHISKY RESERVEWICKED GENIUS
WON FOR DORISWORDS OF FORTUNEYOURAMYSTYLE