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| March 21, 2024, 1:53 p.m.
The first odds you'll encounter are the Morning Line, which is calculated by a racetrack employee. It's important to note that this isn't a handicapper's score, but a prediction of how the public will bet. The goal of the Morning Line maker isn't to handicap the race, but they are usually accurate in their estimates.
Your task is to identify a value horse (known as an overlay) with odds higher than what the public bets. The key to winning is to outdo the race favorites with overlays, or horses that have higher win odds than the public predicts. Successful handicappers create their own "morning line" and search for discrepancies between their calculations and the actual odds.
Pari-mutuel betting means that all customers are wagering against each other, not the "house". Unlike sports betting, the odds change as the race approaches. If you place a $2 bet on a horse at 5-1 odds, but the odds change to 15-1 at post time, that's the payout you'll receive.
In pari-mutuel betting, all bets go into a pool. After deducting the house's cut (about 10-20%) from the total amount, the remaining money is distributed equally among the winning tickets. The fewer people who bet on the same horse, the more money you earn. This is because the "losing bets" are divided among fewer winners.
To calculate the odds, divide the total amount in the pool by the amount bet on the specific horse.
If the odds are listed as 3 – 1, a successful bet of $1 will yield a profit of $3. You will receive $4 in total, which is your original $1 bet plus the $3 profit.
Horse racing odds such as 7-2, 5-1, and so on, represent the profit relative to the amount invested. For instance, odds of 7-2 mean that for every $2 invested, the bettor receives $7 profit. Hence, if you bet $2, the total return on a successful bet would be $9.
Likewise, if a horse's odds are even money (i.e., 1-1), you get $2 profit for every $2 invested, making a total return of $4. If a horse's odds are 1-2, it’s $1 profit for every $2 invested, resulting in a total return of $3.
In a pari-mutuel system, all bets of a specific type, such as win bets, show bets, exacta bets, etc., are placed in separate pools. A percentage of the pool, typically around 15%, is withdrawn to reinvest in racing. The remaining funds are distributed among the winning wagers.
To calculate the payout for a $2 bet based on the listed horse betting odds, divide the first number in the odds by the second number, multiply the result by 2, and then add the standard minimum $2 bet. This will provide a fairly accurate estimate of your potential payout.
Therefore, for a horse at 7-4, divide 7 by 4 (1.75), multiply this number by 2 (3.5), and then add 2 (final payout: $5.50).
7 / 4 = 1.75 * 2 = 3.5 (profit) + 2 (original bet) = 5.50
To determine the exact amount of money a bettor will receive from a successful bet, multiply the mutuel payout by the amount invested, then divide by two. For instance, if a bettor invested $10 on a horse that won at a mutuel payout of $5.50, they would multiply $5.50 by 10 to get $55, then divide by 2 to get a final payout of $27.50.
5.50 * 10 = 55 / 2 = 27.50 (final payout)
By looking at the chart below, you can easily calculate some of the most common payouts (profit + original bet) for a winning bet:
Horse racing odds can be expressed in forms other than fractions. Decimal and Moneyline formats are common.
Odds in a race must add to 100% to be effective. Use the form below to ensure all odds add up to 100%. Enter odds percent in the Odds % column. Odds and $2 Payout will be calculated automatically.
Alternatively, you can enter “points” in the Points column. This is very handy method of calculating odds for all horses in a race. The points can be any weighting you want. The points will be distributed amongst all horses with a Points rating and odds calculated automatically. For instance, you could choose to begin with 100 points and allocate those 100 points to all horses in the race according to your handicapping results. The odds for each horse will be calculated automatically.
Finally, enter the morning line or realtime tote board odds in the Odds $ column. As race time approaches, adjust the Odds $ column as needed. The last columns in the odds calculator specify whether and overlay or underlay exist. Look for "Yes" in the Bet? column to find overlays with a 50% edge. Note that the closer you can get to race time the better - sometimes the big bets come in right at the last moment.
Clear Form
To convert from probability to odds, divide the probability by one minus the probability. For example, if the probability is 10% or 0.10, the odds are calculated as 0.1/0.9, which simplifies to '1 to 9' or 0.111. Similarly, if the probability is 20% or 0.20, the odds are calculated as 0.20/0.80, which simplifies to 1/4.
Convert a fractional odd into a decimal odd by dividing the numerator (the first number) by the denominator (the second number), and then adding 1.
Equation: (numerator/denominator) + 1 = decimal odds
Example: 6/5 is equal to 2.20. Divide 6 by 5. This equals 1.20. Add 1, and you had the decimal 2.20.
There are two steps to convert decimal odds into a fraction. Step 1) Convert decimals odds into a fraction by subtracting 1, and using 1 as the denominator.
Example: 3.40 - 1 = 2.40. This results in decimal odds of 2.40/1. Although this is a valid fraction, bookmakers don't use fractions with decimal points. That's why we proceed to step two. Step 2) We need to simplify this fraction. Find the nearest whole integer (i.e., no decimal place). The denominator reflects the factor by which you need to multiply the numerator to reach this whole integer.
Example: You need to multiply 2.40 by 5 before it becomes a rounded number, 12. Therefore the fraction becomes 12/5. (2.40 x 2 = 4.80, 2.40 x 3 = 7.20, 2.40 * 4 = 9.60, 2.40 * 5 = 12)
To do this, divide the second number (denominator) by the sum of the first number (numerator) and the second number (denominator).
Equation: Denominator / (Numerator + Denominator) * 100 = Implied Probability
Example: The implied probability for 4/1 can be calculated as 1 / (4+1) * 100 = 20%
Divide 1 by the decimal, and multiply it by 100%.
Equation: (1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability Example: 1 /4.00 * 100 = 25%
To determine your minimum payout, you need to understand the odds of your horse.
You can also calculate the maximum payout. For example, if the odds are 5/2 and you bet $2, your payout will be $7 according to the previously discussed formula. The actual payout will range from $7 to $7.9. It can't exceed this, as if it were $8, the odds would be 3/1.
Many tracks provide probable payoffs, so you don't need to worry about these calculations.
Assume the following:
Horse A and B finish 1/2 in the race.
$25,000 was in the betting pool.
10% takeout.
Each bet was $2.
It is the same as above, except:
In step 2: Find out how much was bet on the three show horses (instead of 2 place horses)
In step 4: Divide the profits by three horses (instead of 2 horses)
As with all other wagers, Place and Show bets form their own pools; meaning that payouts are determined solely by the amount bet into those specific pools. So, for example, the amount bet on the Number 7 horse to Win is totally irrelevant to how much the Number 7 horse will pay for Place; which, in turn, is totally irrelevant to how much the Number 7 horse will pay for Show.
Suppose Happy Day and It Figures finish one-two in Race 5 at Laurel Park. $25,000 was bet into the Place Pool. What are the payouts?
First Step: Deduct the track take out
First things first; just as with all the other wagers, the race track makes sure that it gets its cut of the money. Let’s again pretend that FDR is still President of the United States, and the track takeout is a mere ten percent. So we’ll deduct ten percent out of our Gross Place Pool of $25k, giving us a Net Place Pool of $22,500.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the two Place horses
A review of the tote board shows that $6,500 was bet on Happy Day to Place, while It Figures was backed by $12,750 in the Place Pool.
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
Simple enough; we just subtract the amount wagered on Happy Day and It Figures from our Net Place Pool. So $22,500 minus $19,250 ($6,500 plus $12,750) gives us $3,250, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into two prize funds
This is a step we don’t have in the single winner pools. Since there are two Place horses, the profits get divided in half. $3,250 split down the middle gives us $1,625. So $1,625 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on Happy Day, while $1,625 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on It Figures.
Next Step: Divide each prize fund equally among all winning tickets for each horse
For Happy Day, this means $1,625 gets divided by $6,500, giving us $0.25. The $1,625 prize fund for It Figures gets divided by $12,750, giving us $0.13.
Next Step: Remove breakage
Time for the track to double-dip, which it does by rounding both of those amounts down to the nearest dime (though it should be mentioned that New York, for one, does give the bettors a break in the breakage by only rounding down to the nearest nickel). So Happy Day bettors see their profits shrink from $0.25 to $0.20, while It Figures goes from $0.13 to $0.10.
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Our calculations have computed the profits for each dollar wagered. Since race tracks, traditionally, display Win, Place, and Show wagers per every two dollars bet, we double the profit and add in the initial two dollar wager. That gives us Place payouts of:
Happy Day $2.40 (($0.20 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $2.20 (($0.10 x 2) + $2)
We’ll use the same race, except this time It Figures runs third, getting nosed out at the wire by Unexpected. How does that change the payouts? Well, for starters, those who wagered on It Figures to Place are now losers, collecting nothing but an unpleasant memory. As for Happy Day and Unexpected:
There’s no change in this step; ten percent comes off the top of our Gross Place Pool of $25k, giving us a Net Place Pool of $22,500.
We still have the same $6,500 bet on Happy Day to Place, while Unexpected was backed by just $2,200 in the Place Pool.
As before, we’re subtracting the amount wagered on Happy Day and Unexpected from our Net Place Pool. So $22,500 minus $8,700 ($6,500 plus $2,200) gives us $13,800, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
$13,800 divided by two gives us $6,900. So $6,900 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on Happy Day, while $6,900 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on Unexpected.
Those who wagered on Happy Day now have $6,900 to split up among their $6,500 in tickets, which makes for $1.06 . Meanwhile, the $6,900 prize fund for Unexpected gets divided by $2,200, giving us $3.14.
It’s good to be the house, as the track takes again, knocking the $1.06 for Happy Day down to an even dollar, while the $3.14 for Unexpected shrinks down to $3.10.
As before, our calculations have computed the profits for each dollar wagered. Doubling the profit and adding in the initial two dollar wager gives us Place payouts of:
Happy Day $4.00 (($1.00 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $8.20 (($3.10 x 2) + $2)
Notice the increase in payout for Happy Day just by virtue of It Figures not finishing in the other Top Two spot. Lesson to be learned: Place bets (and, as we’ll see later, Show bets) are more desirable when you have a strong opinion that a well backed horse will not be getting a share of the pool.
Calculating Show payouts follow the same basic steps as above, except there’s now three “winners” to be taken care of, instead of just two. So let’s work out an example, using the same race as above, with Happy Day, Unexpected, and It Figures crossing the wire in that order. There’s $20,000 in the Show pool; let’s go!
$20,000 reduced by ten percent leaves us $18,000.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the three Show horses
Per the tote board, the amounts bet on each horse to Show:
Happy Day: $4,800
Unexpected: $1,400
It Figures: $10,000
$18,000 minus $16,200 ($4,800 plus $1,400 plus $10,000) gives us $1,800, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into three prize funds
Since there are three Show horses, the profits get divided three ways. $1,800 divided by three is $600.
Happy Day: $600 / $4,800 = $0.125
Unexpected: $600 / $1,400 = $0.43
It Figures: $600 / $10,000 = $0.06
Happy Day drops to $0.10; Unexpected shrinks to $0.40; WAIT! What do we do about It Figures? If we round down to the nearest dime, the wager has no profit.
Well, for It Figures, the track can only round down to $0.05. This is because race tracks must pay out a minimum of five cents to the dollar for winning wagers, regardless of how much is in the pool (more on this momentarily).
Happy Day $2.20 (($0.10 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $2.80 (($0.40 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
Race tracks must pay out at least five percent (five cents on the dollar) for every winning wager. Sometimes so much is wagered on a specific horse in a pool (almost always the Show pool) that there isn’t enough in the pool to cover all the winning tickets. This is a situation known as a minus pool, meaning that the track is going to lose money on the race, because it will have to dip into its reserves to pay all bettors the amounts that are due.
We’ll use the same race as above, except this time It Figures really figures with the bettors, to the point where the big plungers have wagered heavily on It Figures to finish either first, second, or third. We’ll tweak our pool so that, instead of having a Show pool of $20k with $10k of that wagered on It Figures, we now have a Show pool of $50k, with all of the additional $30k having been put down on It Figures.
$50,000 reduced by ten percent leaves us $45,000.
Our adjusted tote board now shows the following amounts bet on each horse to Show:
It Figures: $40,000
$45,000 minus $46,200 ($4,800 plus $1,400 plus $40,000) gives us, well, it doesn’t give us anything. Actually, it gives us less than anything, as the result is a negative $1,200. But, profits or no profits, the track must pay the minimum of five percent, or $0.05 for every winning dollar wagered. So we can just skip the remaining steps and cut to the chase:
Happy Day $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
Almost all the money was bet on It Figures; but because there were no profits in the pool left to distribute to backers of Happy Day and Unexpected, all three horses pay the same amount for Show, the $2.10 minimum.
Did it make sense to bet on Happy Day and/or Unexpected to Show when there’s a minus pool? Well, when deciding upon your answer, keep in mind that in racing, as in real life, things that figure to happen don’t always come to pass. Sometimes events that can’t miss do, in fact, miss. Sometimes horses like It Figures finish out of the money; and then what? Well, for one thing, it causes those who wagered heavily on It Figures to rethink their life choices.
As for the Show payouts:
$50,000 reduced by ten percent still leaves us $45,000.
The amounts on Happy Day and Unexpected remain the same; but Nondescript replaces It Figures:
Nondescript: $800
$45,000 minus $7,000 ($4,800 plus $1,400 plus $800) gives us $38,000, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
$38,000 divided by three is $12,666.67.
Happy Day: $12,666.67 / $4,800 = $2.64
Unexpected: $12,666.67/ $1,400 = $9.05
Nondescript: $12,666.67/ $800 = $15.83
Happy Day drops to $2.60; Unexpected shrinks to $9.00; Nondescript falls to $15.80.
Happy Day $7.20 (($2.60 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $20.00 (($9.00 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $33.60 (($15.80 x 2) + $2)
The steps for calculating Place and Show payouts above work with any payout that involves multiple “winners”. For example, if there’s a Dead Heat for Win, then Win payouts and the resulting exotic payouts (because there are now two winning exactas, Trifectas, etc.) are determined using the Place payout steps; the Show payout steps are used when three horses finish in a Dead Heat for Place; and so on.
When you are just starting, it is better to walk or trot than a gallop. The win place show bets allow you to do just that. The other bets could seem lucrative, but the winning probability is relatively low even for the most experienced (unless you are using The Wizards picks, which significantly increase your chances).
Hence, these bets form the first nature steps for beginners.
Do not get turned off by the modest payouts. You can act smart, and win decently if you play your bets right. For instance, many experts advise to bet only on win bets and to pass on the other two (place and show bets).
If you are even a bit decent in your selection and can pick out multiple winners – you will compensate for the lost races. The profit from a few win races will most likely be higher than what you will cash out in place and show. Point being, even with these small traditional bets, you can accumulate some cash and experience to play the more exotic bets.
With all the different wagering options, Win-Place-Show Bet sometimes allow for good wagering opportunities with a simple bet. The key is to make a Win bet on a horse whose odds are bigger than what they should be. Never make a Win bet on a horse that is less than 7-5. Place bets should be made on horses who go off at odds of 4-1 or higher. Show bets 10-1 or higher.
Below is a Win Bet Chart based on $2000 (assuming you have $2000 to risk on win bets only). The numbers on the left are you own odds line. The numbers at the top are the tote odds. Example: You make a horse 6-5 and the tote lists him at 9-5, you would bet $35. If they send him away at 2-1, raise your bet to 40. If an overlay is not available, play the highest listed number for your line.
This is a term you will hear floating around the race track very often. This bet is all the three (win, place, show) rolled into one.
Under this Wager, you bet on one Horse in a single ticket to Win Place Show. Three scenarios come out of this:
1. Your Horse wins – You will get the Win Place Show payout
2. Your Horse comes 2nd – You will get the Place Show payout
3. Your Horse comes 3rd – You will get the Show payout
There are multiple advantages to this Wager:
However, the payout of this kind of bet is usually one of the lowest. It is also called the lazy bet, and rightly so as you do not need to spend a lot of time analyzing and making specific selections: less effort, fewer rewards.
This result is the case unless you use The Wizards selections, where we research on your behalf and only suggest a handful of place bets each day at the track.
The bet can also get more expensive. If one win bet is $10, for across the board wager, you usually have to cover the cost of all three bets, and you will have to pay at least $30. It is sporadic that you will get back a substantial value, and your overlay is high.
All in all, this bet is one of the least stressful chances, and when you are just starting – you want to have fun. This bet tactic is one of the best doors to enter the world of horse betting.
Theoretically, the odds should add up to 100% for the race, so if it were a four-horse race and each had exactly the same chance of winning; each would have a 25% chance of winning the race (4 x 25 = 100). However, for the bookies to benefit, they create a total percentage to guarantee their winnings no matter which horse wins. It is usually around 105% to 120%.
The simplest way to calculate a horse’s probability of winning is simply to divide the decimal probabilities by 1. Probability of winning% = 1 / decimal probabilities, For example, a 7-2 horse has a 22% chance of winning the race. 7-2 in decimal probabilities is 4.5, so 1 / 4.5 = 22%
Removing the rounding ratio for each race will provide the true odds for each horse (that is, make the race total 100%). Then use the bookmaker prices as a guide and reduce/increase the% closer to what you think the horse’s odds really are.
The value lies in those animals that are underrated. Within your odds and probabilities for each horse, you will be able to see which horses have not had as many industry opportunities; For example, you give a horse a 7-2 shot with a 22% chance, but the market shows that it is a 6-1 shot with only a 14% chance. A price of 6-1 for a horse that you rate 7-2 represents the value of the bet and your advantage over the market.
In addition to betting on a single horse to win, place, or show in one race, bets which involve selecting the first two, three, or four horses are available.These include:
A Quinnella bet involves wagering on the first two horses to finish a specific race. The horses can finish in either order in a Quinella bet. If one of the horses is a long shot however, it pays better to use an exacta box instead (see below).
A single wager on tw horses to finish first and second position in any order.
Pick the first and second runner, in any order, making three or more selections so that each possible top-two combination is achieved.
Similar to Boxed Quinella except you choose one horse across all bets with other horses to be combined. If you are certain that a horse will finish first or second, but unsure which other horse will join in either first or second place, you can use a quinella wheel bet horse racing to cover all possibilities.
Predict the first two horses in a race in the correct order. It’s one of the easiest exotic wagers to understand but also the most modest-paying of all exotic bets.
Pick the first and second runner, in any order, making three or more selections. In the ticket below, horses 1, 2, and 8 are $1 bets boxed for a total of $6.
Pick the first and second runner, in order, making one or more selections for first and two or more selections for second.
Predict the first three horses in a race in the correct order.
Here are the costs of some basic $1 trifecta plays:
Pick the first, second and third horse, in order.
Pick the first, second, and third horse, in any order making three or more selections.
Pick the horse you believe will finish first, with multiple horses picked for second and third. end. For example, if you think the number seven horse is the most likely winner, you key that horse to win the race on top of the trifecta and put the other horses underneath it. Here’s a bet of 7 over 2, 8, and 11.
Pick one or more runners to fill each of the first three positions. The more runners you include, the greater the cost of the bet per unit.
Predict the first four horses in a race in the correct order. It is one of the most difficult to win but has a huge payout.
One of the biggest superfecta payouts that was ever recorded occurred at the 2013 Kentucky Derby, when one lucky lady placed 120 different $1 superfecta bets on the top four finishers of the race. She went on to win $28,500 at the event, and what makes it even more impressive is that this was her very first time placing bets on horses.
Pick the winner of two consecutive races. Note that for the Daily Double and its variants, the most important favorite to beat is in the first leg, and here’s why: The first leg is the only race where horseplayers can see the actual win odds. The public typically overbets favorites, creating value for you. Beating the first favorite almost always creates an overlay price. An overlay is a horse or a payoff going off at much higher odds than warranted in comparison to its real chances of winning.Daily Double
The Daily Double involves picking the winner of two consecutive races at the same track. This bet is typically offered for the first and last two races of the day.
One advantage of the Daily Double is that you can see the win odds of the horses in the first race of the double. If you can beat a favorite in one of the two daily double races, you’re paid more than a parlay of the two win prices. If you can beat both favorites, the daily double payoff zooms upward.
Pick the winners of three specified races at the same track.
Pick the winners of four specified races at the same track.
A pick 3 bet works in the same way as the Daily Double except that you must choose the winner of 3 consecutive races. The ticket example above has three pick 3 bets. The bet is on races 2, 3, and 4 and uses 3 horses in each race.
Since a Pick-3 costs only $1, vs. $2 for the Daily Double, it’s one way to make a small score on short money.
Here are the costs of some basic $1 pick 3 plays:
AB / AB / AB (8 combinations): $8
ABC / ABC / ABC (27 combinations): $27
A / ABCD / ABCD (16 combinations): $16
AB / AB / ABCDEFGH (32 combinations): $32
AB / ABC / ABCD (16 combination): $24
There are also pick 4, 5 and 6 betting options available at some online sportsbooks. Note that as the picks get higher, there’s a chance nobody wins. Some tracks have carryover provisions for this situation. A carryover pool is the money left from the pick 6 pool after the takeout is deducted and the consolation tickets have been paid. A consolation payout goes to those bettors with the most winners in the pick 6 races, which typically is five.
Here are the costs of some basic $1 pick 4 plays:
AB / AB / AB / AB (16 combinations): $16
A / ABC / ABC / ABC (27 combinations): $27
A / AB / ABCD / ABCD (32 combinations): $32
A / AB / ABC / ABCDE (30 combinations): $30
AB / AB / ABC / ABC (36 combinations): $36
Pick the winners of six specified races at the same track. This bet is typically the last six races of the day. This is the one type of bet that has paid out in millions of dollars. The best time to play it is when nobody has hit it the day before creating a carryover pool.
Pick two of the three placegetters in any order - i.e., payout for predicting 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, or 2nd and 3rd.
Betting strategies for exotic wagering vary. They include:
In a box wager, a punter selects a number of horses and covers all the finishing options available. For example, a box exacta with a $1 wagering unit involving horses 1 and 2 in a race costs $2, which means the bet will be successful if horse 1 wins and horse 2 is second, and if horse 2 wins and horse 1 is second.
Punters can include more than two horses for a box exacta to cover more options. For example, a three-horse box exacta (covering all first- and second-place options involving three selected horses) with a $1 wagering unit costs $6, a four-horse box exacta costs $12, and so on.
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A box trifecta selecting just three horses, and covering all possible first, second, and third place finishes of these three horses, for a $0.50 wagering unit costs $3. Boxing four horses to include all possible combinations costs $12, and so on.
A box superfecta, in which four horses are selected and all finishing order options are covered, for a $0.10 wagering unit is $2.40. For five horses it costs $12, and for six horses it’s $36.
In a wheel wager, a punter selects one or more horses as a banker (i.e. horses they are confident will place in their predicted position), and then includes all other horses to fill the other placings around them.
For example, in an exacta wheel in a six-horse field, a punter can select one horse to finish first, and cover any of the other runners finishing second. This bet with a $1 wagering unit will cost $5, meaning the punter gets a return provided the horse he selected to finish first is the winner of the race.
In another example, you pick a sure winner to win the first half of a Daily Double. Then pick all the other horses in the other half of the Daily Double. If the horse you picked wins the first half, you are guaranteed of winning the Daily Double.
A part-wheel is a way to be creative and economical using multiple horses in vertical and horizontal exotic wagers. For example, if you bet a $1 trifecta part-wheel 2x5x5 (vs. 5x5x5) — meaning two horses keyed to win with five horses in the place and show spot — the cost of the trifecta is reduced to $24.
Another $1 trifecta part-wheel example is a 3x4x5 — meaning three horses to win, four horses in the place spot, and five horses to show. That ticket cost $27 and gives you tremendous coverage of the five horses you like at less than half the $60 cost of a box.
A key wager is similar to a Wheel except not all horses are used to fill other placings around the banker. In a key wager, a punter selects one or more horses as a banker, and then a number of other horses to fill in the other relevant placings. The key will typically be a favorite (favorites win 33% of the time) that you believe will indeed win the race.
For example, a trifecta key, where a punter banks on one horse winning and then any combination of three other horses to finish second and third, the cost for a $0.50 wager is $3 (covering the six possible options). The graph also includes costs for a superfecta key.
Typically you want to pick a key horse that runs well and surround it with long shots to create value.
Professional horseplayers have learned that to beat the takeout by betting over the long run. Going for big scores in the exotic pools — such as pick 6, pick 4, and superfecta wagers — is necessary. But you need a lot of staying power to ride out the inevitable long losing streaks that accompany the kind of feast or famine wagering in exotic pools. You may not be ready for that kind of commitment just yet. In the beginning, you’re better off finding winners and betting on winners — simple as that. Win bets on fast horses at fair odds is a good formula.
Payouts do not rely on odds. Instead, payouts are based on the number of winning tickets and the overall size of the betting pool.
For example, There are 10,000 bettors who purchased $1 straight Superfecta tickets (pick top four horses in correct order). $10,000 is put into the betting pool. This betting pool is then divided by the number of winners. If only one person wins, he takes home $10,000. If two people win, each takes home $5,000.
In order for a horseplayer to bet intelligently, he must formulate his handicapping opinion of a race and then translate it into a wager that perfectly expresses all the nuances of that opinion. This is an art every bit as important and challenging as the handicapping process.
Place and show wagering are almost always losing propositions. The mathematics fo the game is such that place and show bets always return less than win best over the long run.
Bet to win or Exacta? With odds like 11 to 1, it pays to not fool around and bet to win. However, lower odds might dictate a Exacta bet assuming you have a pretty could idea who will run second. At something like 6 to 5 (returns 4.40 plus the 2.00 bet) or less, only play the race if you see an opportunity in the exotics.
Look to put 50-60% of your investment into the bet you think will win. Hedge it with the remaining 40-50% by playing other combinations, i.e. likely adverse results, using smaller bets. For instance, you assume the finish will be 1-2-3. Bet $60 on the bet you think will win (1-2) and hedge like this:
Or maybe even something more complex like this:
At the most fundamental level, a hedge bet is generally considered to be an “insurance wager”, sometimes referred to as a “saver bet”. Perhaps the most frequently used and best examples of hedge wagering are multi-race wagers such as Pick 3s and Pick 4s. Let’s say you have a $1 Pick 4 ticket that has a total cost of $72 and that your selections won the first three legs of the four race wager. Now suppose you have two horses in the final leg of the Pick 4. However, there is a third horse in the final leg that worries you a lot, a horse you left out of the wager in order to keep the cost down. When you look at the “will pays” you see that if one of your picks wins the final leg, your payoff will be $600. If your other pick wins, the payoff will be $840. If the worrisome horse you left out actually wins the race, your payoff will be zero. Now, let’s say the worrisome horse is going off at odds of 6 to 1 meaning it will pay $14 to win for a $2 bet. One way to hedge your active Pick 4 wager would be to bet $20 on the worrisome horse to win the final leg. Now, if your first or second pick wins, you are paid $600 or $840 respectively as described above. But, if your worrisome horse comes in, you will now be paid $140 instead of zero.
This is a pretty straightforward example of a “saver” hedge wager. Let’s widen our thinking now to explore the multitude of ways the concept of hedging our bets can help us “turn a profit” at the track. Have you ever said or heard another horse player say something like “I had that horse in the show position, but not in the place position.” or “I had that horse under, but not on top.” or “If I had added that horse, it would have made the wager too expensive.” or “I found that long shot, but didn’t make a dime on it”? Good hedge wagering strategies can make many of these “woulda”, “coulda”, “shoulda” laments a thing of the past.
There are three things that will influence your handicapping process and final wagering decisions. These three considerations are:
A “saver” hedge wager is basically an insurance wager. You still want your prime wager to work because it is the wager aimed at making a nice profit.The objective of the “saver” hedge wager is to at least get back the costs of the prime and hedge wagers in case the prime wager does not work.The example discussed earlier regarding the final leg of an active Pick 4 ticket is a “saver” hedge wager. In the example, your preference is obviously to win the Pick 4 with payoffs of $600 or $850. If the Pick 4 does not work, you want the winning horse to be the horse in your “saver” hedge wager where you would collect at least $140.
On the other hand, your hedge wagers can actually be part of your “Prime” wagers. In this case, you generally bet amounts on each part of the wager such that you will win approximately the same amount of money regardless of which of your individual wagers actually wins. For example, let’s say you make a two horse win wager with one of your horses going off at 4 to 1 and the other going off at 6 to 1. The 4 -1 horse will pay $10 to win for a $2 wager and the 6-1 horse will pay $14 to win. In this case you might wager $20 on the 4-1 horse and $14 on the 6-1 horse to win $100 if the 4-1 horse wins and $98 if the 6-1 horse wins. This is called “dutching” the wager. These “dutched” prime hedge wagers always work best when you have a good idea of the potential payoffs so you can determine the amount to wager on each of the potential outcomes. This makes these wager strategies particularly well suited for Win, Exacta and Daily Double wagers.
Your normal handicapping process should get you to the point of what you think will be the primary outcome of the race. For example, you may think the Exacta will be Horse A as the winner and Horse B as the place horse. This would be your primary Exacta wager. Now comes the hedge oriented handicapping part. There are two issues:
You may determine that if Horse “A” does not win, it would more than likely get beat by Horse “B”. You may also determine that Horse “C” may be able to beat Horse “A” or Horse ““B” but not both of them. In this case you would want Horse “C” only in the place position. In this scenario, you would play the following four Exacta combinations:
A/B B/A A/C B/C
The next step you would then take is to determine if all four of these combinations are part of your prime wager, in which case you would “Dutch” the wager by betting an amount on each combination that would yield approximately the same payoff. Or, you could decide that the A/B and B/A combinations are your primary wagers and that the A/C and B/C combinations are “saver” hedge bets. In this case you would wager just enough on the A/C and B/C combinations to get back the overall total cost of the wagers.
It is always best to have a good handle on the probable payoffs associated with the prime and hedge wager(s) you are working on and to do so pretty close to post time so the payoff figures hold up. So, leave yourself enough time to look at payoffs that apply such as win odds and probable payoffs for Exacta and Daily Double combinations. If you are considering hedging the final leg of an active Pick 3 or Pick 4 wager, you will want to look at the “will pay” figures for the final leg horses. In any event, you will want to make sure you allow enough time to complete your prime handicapping, your hedge handicapping and to structure your prime and hedge wagers. These efforts do take thought and time.
There are two ways to hedge win wagers that we have found to be particularly effective. One is to make a two horse win wager and “dutch” the amount bet on each ticket so regardless of which horse wins, the payoffs will be similar. For instance, a 2 horse win wager where we bet $20 on a 4 to 1 horse and $14 on a 6 to 1 horse which would generate $100 or $98 payoffs respectively.
The second way we have found to be effective is a wager we call the Win/Insurance Wager. A Win/Insurance Wager calls for a betting ratio of $2 on the horse to win, $4 on the horse to place and $12 on the horse to show. Assume the win, place and show payoffs were $10.20, $5.30 and $4.00 respectively. If the horse wins the total payoffs would be $44.80. If the horse places, the total payoffs would be $34.60. If the horse shows, the payoff would be $24, enough to get your $18 wager cost back plus a small profit.
The Exacta wager is one of the most frequently played wagers in horse racing and, in our opinion, presents some of the best opportunities for hedge handicapping and hedge wagering. There are a host of reasons why this is so:
Continuing with the example we showed earlier in the “Hedge Oriented Handicapping” section, here is a chart that shows how we might “dutch” the Exacta wager.
Horse players should become “expert at something” and that the Exacta wager was a great place to start. When you add hedge strategies, Exactas become a reliable source of consistent profits.
Playing straight Trifecta and Superfecta tickets, such as an A/B/C/D Superfecta, rarely work. And, playing Trifecta and Superfecta boxed wagers is generally a losing financial proposition.Trifecta and Superfecta wagers lend themselves to the benefits of hedge handicapping and hedge wagering. Now, this may be the single most important concept we present in this article on hedge wagering: Consider using Exacta wagers as hedges for your Trifecta and Superfecta wagers.
There are two good ways to approach this:
First, consider an Exacta hedge bet consisting of the win and place horses that are in your Trifecta and Superfecta wagers. This will help in situations where you lose the Trifecta because of a missing show horse or you lose a Superfecta because of a missing show and/or 4th place horse. Let’s say you have a Superfecta wager that looks like this:
AB/ABC/ABCDEF/ABCDEF
A $1 Superfecta like this would cost $48. In this case, we would play an Exacta hedge wager of AB/ABC, with the wager amount determined by the probable Exacta payoffs. We would want to bet an amount that would net at least our $48 Superfecta wager cost in the event the “D”, “E” and “F” horses did not come in 3rd or 4th.
Here is a second way. Let’s say you have a horse or horses in the Trifecta show position or Superfecta show and/or 4th position that you are concerned may finish in the place position. But, if you add them to the place position, the Trifecta or Superfecta wager would be too expensive. This situation happens time and time again. In this case, consider adding the horse(s) in the place position of an Exacta hedge wager. In the example above, you could play an Exacta AB/DEF. You can do this relatively inexpensively in an Exacta and it can provide for a solid “saver” hedge bet. Think about this! You may not be willing to play the Superfecta with the “D”, “E” and “F” horses in the place position because the cost of the wager would increase from $48 to $120. Using the AB/DEF Exacta “saver” hedge wager actually helps you make your prime Superfecta wager.
Here we have a situation similar to using Exactas to hedge the win and place positions in Trifectas and Superfectas as described above. More and more tracks now have rolling Daily Double wagers, meaning there is a Daily Double wager available in every race except the last race on the card. This situation lets us use the Daily Double as a hedge against the first two legs of Pick 3s and Pick 4s. If you leave dangerous horses out of the first and/or second leg of a new Pick 3 or Pick 4 wager, most likely because of the increase in the cost of the ticket, consider including the horses in some combination as part of a Daily Double hedge wager. Once again, you can see the probable payoffs of all Daily Double combinations which makes it relatively easy to determine if the hedge wager makes sense.
Recording a betting log lets you see which bets work best for you.