How much impact does a jockey have on a horse race outcome?

Pick Pony | March 23, 2024, 3:31 p.m.

How a jockey impacts a horse’s performance in a race

Does the jockey's role matter in horse racing? Yes, but only slightly. Horse-racing enthusiasts often claim that a jockey contributes to 10 percent of a horse's performance on any given day. Although this isn't a scientific fact, it emphasizes a jockey's role: while they can't significantly improve a poor-performing horse, they can certainly aid a superior horse in winning.

Know the horse’s strengths and weaknesses

The most skilled jockeys understand a horse's strengths and weaknesses. Some horses prefer to stay behind and make a final dash, while others, known as speed horses, prefer leading throughout the race. Certain horses are comfortable running in tight spaces and can overtake on the left rail, while others require more room and overtake on the right. A jockey considers these factors and modifies their strategy accordingly.

Know the competition

Good jockeys also study the competition. They watch videos of other horses and read the Daily Racing Form to stay updated on their performances, which then shapes their strategy. For instance, if three fast horses are in your race, you might let them compete for the frontrunner position, then surge ahead once they tire out.

Know the track

Jockeys need to understand the track. For instance, how water drains could leave the inside path drier than the rest, making it a preferred route. The Pimlico track, home to the Preakness, is known for favoring faster horses over those that excel at come-from-behind tactics.

However, the significance of a jockey's role in a race's outcome remains unclear and is a subject of intense debate.

How jockeys become jockeys

Jockeys are compensated to win. They generally earn around $50 per race, with a 10% share of the purse money. For second or third-place finishes in high-stakes races, they receive a slightly smaller percentage.

In horse racing, novice riders are referred to as apprentices or bugboys. Racing rules provide these apprentices a substantial weight concession of 10 pounds until they validate their skills by winning a specific number of races. Once an apprentice loses her weight concession, also known as an allowance, she advances to a journeyman rider or becomes a full-fledged jockey.

The apprentice begins with a 10-pound allowance. This allowance reduces to 7 pounds after winning five races. Once a bugboy secures 35 career victories, the weight allowance is further reduced to 5 pounds for one year, starting from the date of his 35th win.

So, when should you place a bet on an apprentice jockey? If your horse is fast, an inexperienced bugboy can still lead it to victory. However, if the horse either lags behind the leading horse or rallies late, consider whether the bugboy is a pilot or a passenger. If you need a pilot and the bugboy isn't prepared for it yet, it's better not to place the bet.

What the pros say about the importance of the jockey in a horse race

Here are what a few experts say about the importance of the jockey in a horse race.

MRS. C. V. WHITNEY

As important as Bobby Bragan is to the Pirates. Bobby took the same kids from last to first place—for a while—in the National League. A good jockey can perform a like miracle. He is as important to his horse as a conductor to an orchestra, because a horse race is a symphony in motion.

MRS. E. BARRY RYAN

You may be sure of a foal’s blood strain; you spend lots of time with him—his feed, the vet, his training, etc. Now he’s 2 years old and ready—you hope-and you get him to the post. What happens? Everything depends on a little bitty man, with a little bitty cap and a size two shoe.

CHARLES H. WACKER

For a good horse to put in a good performance a good jockey is essential. But a good jockey can’t do much for a poor horse. The only reason Native Dancer was beaten at the Kentucky Derby was because of a scant miscalculation by a jockey who is one of the greatest riders.

JOSEPHINE ABERCROMBIE ROBINSON

There’s a tendency for stables to depend on “name” jockeys, but in a mile-and-a-half race some of the horses are going to break. The best name jockey in the world can’t do anything about it. I’ve been a rider in horse shows. There it’s different. A rider means 50% to 60% to his mount.

JIMMY KILROE (Official handicapper)

Over a long pull, a good rider can win races that poor riders will lose. A poor rider can get the best horse licked by mistakes in judgment. Race horses run between 35 and 40 miles an hour. Riders have to make instant decisions, and the better riders make fewer mistakes.

MAX HIRSCH (Trainer for King Ranch and other stables)

Let’s say that the jockey has got to have the horse. With a really great horse—the greatest—and a number of good jockeys to choose from, I’d say that the jockey amounts to about 25% of the race, but no more. Because he has equally good jockeys running against him.

JOHN V. BOUVIER III

In the average horse race a good jockey is worth about 75% of the race and the horse 25%. However, when you have great horses like Citation, Whirlaway, Native Dancer and Man o’ War, it’s usually the other way round. But even great horses can miss, if the jockey has a temporary lapse.

BELMONT EVANS (Baltimore, Md. Horse Trainer)

My opinion may raise some eyebrows, but I sincerely believe that a jockey is about 5% of the horse after the trainer is through with him, and the horse can really run. That kind of horse makes a jockey, even an Arcaro. Any jockey who can hang on can win with Swaps or Nashua.

MRS. ARDEN J. BRAKE (Miami, Fla. Owner, racing stable)

Not too important. A jockey has to have good judgment in a tight race but that’s all. Everything else being equal, a good jockey can move a horse up by a head in a tight race, but he can’t move him up a full length. Give me the good horse in a race and you can have your pick of jockeys.