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Pick Pony | Aug. 28, 2024, 1:08 p.m.
This promises to be one of the more exciting races of the day - and one of the toughest to handicap. There are a lot of entries that have the potential to take home the win.
Brandon Walsh’s Cameo Performance is one of the fastest horses in the group, ranking just underneath Carson’s Run, and the speed for this youngster is improving rapidly. They’ve tried him on dirt but true to his pedigree, he much prefers turf surfaces. Regarding feet-per-second calculations, early and mid-FPS are trending flat, maybe declining just a bit, but late FPS is improving notably. Cameo Performance’s pace (E1, E2, LP) figures are climbing.
Cameo Performance is tied for the top in average speed and speed over the last three races. His speed in the last race was higher than anyone else’s, except for Carson’s Run (see below). He also has the second-best speed on turf (again, just behind Carson’s Run).
Cameo Performance typically takes a few months off between races, so he’s coming in a little sooner than we expected. However, a shorter rest period doesn’t seem to hamper him.Tyler Gaffalione will have to guide the three-year-old colt, who likes to hang back until the stretch and rely on stamina to grab a position on the tote board. His last works were long, so Walsh clearly looked to tweak his conditioning a bit. Again, this is not an abnormal move for Walsh and this horse.
Improvement is the key to Cameo Performance. We’re going out on a limb here and presume his improvement in his young career will continue on the same trajectory. If so, he’ll win this race - and the 12:1 morning line odds look pretty sweet.
If Lagynos doesn’t set the pace for this race, Cugino will - assuming he’s primed and ready to go after three months off. At this stage in his career, his speed is improving with each race, albeit not by as much as we’d like to see with a horse this age. His average speed is tied with Carson’s Run and Cameo Performance, and his average speed over the past three races and best speed on turf are just slightly lower than the two.
His pace numbers are rising across the board, but what excites us most about Cugino is his feet-per-second calculations in the middle and later stages of the race. Simply put, he far exceeds the others. Trainer/Jockey ROI is what pushes us over the edge, making us more comfortable with that extended layoff. We expect Cugino will make the tote board, likely in second place, but a win is within reach, too. If an overlay develops, he could be a good bet.
Ace jockey Cristian Torres will ride Lagynos as he barrels from the gate. Lagynos is one of the faster horses in this race. We’re not sure why Steven Asmussen took so long to notice his pedigree guided him away from dirt to the green stuff. Scratch all the early dirt experimentation and you’ve got a horse performing near the top of this group.
His latest works hint that Lagynos is peaking just in time, a not-so-unusual expectation from a horse mentored by Asmussen. He’s one of the few showing improvement in all pace ratings (early, mid, and late) combined with better FPS results. Speed is trending almost flat, and the last few races hint at a further decline. However, AI thinks his speed will bounce up in this race, which could be enough for him to earn a place on the tote board.
We will probably see Lagynos pressing Cugino or Rothschild in the early sections of the race.
Carsons Run enters the race as one of the favorites with 9/2 morning odds. He’s clearly the fastest horse in this race, including a stunning performance in his last race, where he took the title in a G1 at Saratoga. His performance far exceeded anything seen from this three-year-old colt, which hints that he may have peaked a few months earlier than most horses at this age. However, a growth spurt doesn’t show up in the performance of his works.
Was that performance a fluke? We think so. We’re not taking anything away from this fine horse, but a repeat performance is not likely. Still, even a lower performance leaves enough room for Carson’s Run to earn a position on the board.
We are reluctantly putting Carson’s Run in the fourth place position. Making the board is quite possible but 9:2 odds take him out of consideration anyway.
Speedwise Rothschild falls slightly below average. We expect him to lead out of the gate, be overtaken by Cugino, and fall into a presser role fairly quickly. From there, it gets tougher for Rothschild. He switched from dirt to turf late last year and, as expected from his pedigree, performed much better on the green stuff. If his speed improves again, and we think it’s likely that it will, he could be one of the fastest in this group.
His last works were strong, concluding a cycle that seems to have peaked at the right time. That’s important because this will be his second start after a 230-day layoff.Speed is trending up nicely but according to AI, could spike down in this race. Sprint early FPS is declining but offset by an improving late FPS number. All of his pace numbers are trending up sharply.
Rothschild goes into the race with 30:1 odds, far lower than they should be. This is his second start after a layoff in which we think he extended his preperation for the switch to turf. His first race after the layoff went well. We think it’ll go even better this time. Making the board is quite possible, despite what the odds indicate, and winning is not out of the question either. If the overlay is good, drop some coin on him.
Trained by Saffie Joseph, none of Abrumar’s stats jump right out. He makes the board on a consistent basis but always a bridesmaid and never a bride. In fact, Cameo Performance, Lagynos, and Carson’s Run have all beaten Abrumar in the past. However, Abrumar’s speed is improving as good or better than anyone else in this group putting him right up there with Carson’s Run and ameo Performance.
His early and mid-pace are improving but late pace is trending flat. A 15:1 morning line makes Abrumar an interesting proposition. Our guess is that he will barely miss the tote board, likely finishing in 4th or 5th place. However, a trip to the podium is not out of the question at all. Watch for the overlay and make the bet if the odds look good enough to justify a bet on a slightly longer shot.