Kentucky Downs September 1, 2024 - Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | Aug. 29, 2024, 1:50 p.m.

Race 10 - National Thoroughbred League Juvenile Sprint Stakes

Nick Tammaro, the oddsmaker at Kentucky Downs, has installed Black Forza as the 5-2 morning-line favorite. On a warm, sunny Wednesday morning, Black Forza was getting acquainted with the Kentucky Downs course with assistant trainer Lauryn Faulkner on board. The 35-year-old O’Callaghan watched Black Forza jog around the course. Black Forza, a Kentucky-bred son of Complexity, will be making his fourth career start on Sunday. After breaking his maiden in his second start in Ireland, he traveled to Great Britain and won the Group 2 Markel Richmond Stakes by a half-length. The horse arrived in the U.S. last week and arrived at Kentucky Downs on Tuesday after spending time at Churchill Downs. O’Callaghan flew into Nashville on Tuesday following a 12-hour journey from Ireland that saw him land in Chicago before moving on to Tennessee. Wednesday was the first time he had ever seen Kentucky Downs. Call him impressed.

“It reminds me of home,” O’Callaghan said. “Guys were saying, ‘wait until you see it.’ It looks great. It’s better than I thought it would be. The barn area is lovely, clean and very airy. The horses are well taken care of.”

Of course, it’s more important that Black Forza likes it. After seeing him train, O’Callaghan said, “So far, so good.”

“I thought he looked quite fresh and well,” O’Callaghan said. “That’s better than being the other way.”

Kentucky Downs came into focus after the Markel Richmond Stakes. O’Callaghan mentioned that Adrian Beaumont of the International Racing Bureau pointed out the Juvenile Sprint Stakes because of the prize money. Black Forza, being a Kentucky-bred horse, can compete for the full prize. And now, they are here.

“I have had Kentucky Downs in the back of my mind for a long time,” said O’Callaghan, who trains 40 horses in Ireland. “The prize money gets to a certain point, and you can’t ignore it. This race he is running in is worth four times what the traditional races back home are worth.”

O’Callaghan is quietly optimistic that Black Forza will perform well on Sunday. The owner, Kennedy, who is from New York but spends half the year in Ireland, is scheduled to fly in from the Emerald Isle on Friday. Black Forza will be ridden on Sunday by Irish jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle, who was also on board in the Markel Richmond Stakes.

“He has a lot of speed,” O’Callaghan said. “Natural speed, rather than raw, five-furlong speed. I do think he will stretch out in time.”

Kentucky Downs September 1, 2024 AI picks

Kentucky Downs September 1, 2024 - Algorithm 1

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Mean Eileen (3/1)
Place:9 - Make A Million (4/1)
Show:7 - Blue Dazzler (8/1)
Other contenders:6 - Tiger Division (6/1), 3 - Stubby (9/2), 5 - Lady Spun Sugar (30/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Mor Luck (15/1)
Place:2 - Risuko (8/1)
Show:3 - Hi Barbie (5/1)
Other contenders:4 - Necessity (8/1), 5 - Everybreathyoutake (9/2), 6 - Pure Breeze (12/1), 7 - Good Reason (20/1), 8 - Bembridge Ledge (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:5 - Generous Lover (5/2)
Place:8 - Avenue Niel (6/5)
Show:1 - Maria'S Honor (20/1)
Other contenders:3 - Embrace Me (8/1), 7 - Mirari (7/2), 6 - I Had That One Too (30/1)
 
Race 4
Win:9 - Step Forward (6/1)
Place:2 - Ambivalent (3/1)
Show:1 - Statesboro (30/1)
Other contenders:7 - Otago (8/1), 8 - Dhabab (12/1), 3 - Judge Davis (7/2)
 
Race 5
Win:13 - Deer District (12/1)
Place:15 - Oscar'S World (6/1)
Show:1 - El Kabong (10/1)
Other contenders:9 - Ducale (15/1), 5 - Black Powder (20/1), 3 - Scoobie Quando (8/1), 14 - Dominican Pioneer (3/1), 12 - Fuerteventura (8/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Master Controller (20/1)
Place:2 - Lazlo (12/1)
Show:3 - Warlander (5/2)
Other contenders:4 - Shogun (7/2), 5 - Blue Chair Bay (5/1), 6 - Ethics (20/1), 7 - Flying Mohawk (8/1), 8 - English Law (12/1)
 
Race 7
Win:11 - Stephanieswarrior (20/1)
Place:14 - Novara (4/1)
Show:9 - Miyako (9/2)
Other contenders:7 - I Am The Sauce (15/1), 10 - Yammy Yammy Bella (30/1), 4 - Satin Blue (6/5), 13 - Day Dawning (6/1), 6 - Shezthefactor (15/1)
 
Race 8
Win:5 - Vesture (8/1)
Place:10 - Gorilla Trek (20/1)
Show:8 - British Isles (8/1)
Other contenders:1 - Dashman (12/1), 2 - Common Defense (7/2), 3 - Luna Tap (20/1), 6 - King D'Oro (6/1), 16 - Ibn Al Arabi (50/1)
 
Race 9
Win:2 - Siege Of Boston (6/1)
Place:12 - Recker Point (20/1)
Show:7 - Dataman (9/2)
Other contenders:8 - Money Supply (15/1), 9 - Funtastic Again (5/1), 11 - Webslinger (5/1), 10 - Atone (12/1), 1 - Goliad (8/1)
 
Race 10
Win:1 - Reach For The Rose (9/2)
Place:10 - Eighty West (12/1)
Show:6 - Williams Empire (15/1)
Other contenders:3 - Complex Music (30/1), 5 - Under Who'S Radar (5/1), 2 - Pharoah'S Dynasty (4/1), 9 - Chasing Liberty (20/1)
 
Race 11
Win:7 - Padiddle (9/2)
Place:3 - The Dover Specter (20/1)
Show:4 - Come To Papa (6/1)
Other contenders:6 - Get Ahead Now (12/1), 2 - San Martin (8/1), 1 - Acting Debut (8/1), 5 - Cloudy Holiday (10/1), 9 - Telescopic (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 20, FPS Midpoint: 20, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 50, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Kentucky Downs September 1, 2024 - Algorithm 2

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Mean Eileen (3/1)
Place:9 - Make A Million (4/1)
Show:7 - Blue Dazzler (8/1)
Other contenders:6 - Tiger Division (6/1), 3 - Stubby (9/2), 5 - Lady Spun Sugar (30/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Mor Luck (15/1)
Place:2 - Risuko (8/1)
Show:3 - Hi Barbie (5/1)
Other contenders:4 - Necessity (8/1), 5 - Everybreathyoutake (9/2), 6 - Pure Breeze (12/1), 7 - Good Reason (20/1), 8 - Bembridge Ledge (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:5 - Generous Lover (5/2)
Place:8 - Avenue Niel (6/5)
Show:1 - Maria'S Honor (20/1)
Other contenders:3 - Embrace Me (8/1), 7 - Mirari (7/2), 6 - I Had That One Too (30/1)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - Ambivalent (3/1)
Place:9 - Step Forward (6/1)
Show:7 - Otago (8/1)
Other contenders:8 - Dhabab (12/1), 1 - Statesboro (30/1), 3 - Judge Davis (7/2)
 
Race 5
Win:13 - Deer District (12/1)
Place:1 - El Kabong (10/1)
Show:15 - Oscar'S World (6/1)
Other contenders:9 - Ducale (15/1), 12 - Fuerteventura (8/1), 3 - Scoobie Quando (8/1), 2 - Gasoline (15/1), 5 - Black Powder (20/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Master Controller (20/1)
Place:2 - Lazlo (12/1)
Show:3 - Warlander (5/2)
Other contenders:4 - Shogun (7/2), 5 - Blue Chair Bay (5/1), 6 - Ethics (20/1), 7 - Flying Mohawk (8/1), 8 - English Law (12/1)
 
Race 7
Win:14 - Novara (4/1)
Place:11 - Stephanieswarrior (20/1)
Show:9 - Miyako (9/2)
Other contenders:7 - I Am The Sauce (15/1), 4 - Satin Blue (6/5), 10 - Yammy Yammy Bella (30/1), 13 - Day Dawning (6/1), 6 - Shezthefactor (15/1)
 
Race 8
Win:5 - Vesture (8/1)
Place:10 - Gorilla Trek (20/1)
Show:8 - British Isles (8/1)
Other contenders:1 - Dashman (12/1), 2 - Common Defense (7/2), 3 - Luna Tap (20/1), 6 - King D'Oro (6/1), 4 - Copper Missile (15/1)
 
Race 9
Win:2 - Siege Of Boston (6/1)
Place:12 - Recker Point (20/1)
Show:7 - Dataman (9/2)
Other contenders:8 - Money Supply (15/1), 11 - Webslinger (5/1), 9 - Funtastic Again (5/1), 10 - Atone (12/1), 6 - Smokin' T (6/1)
 
Race 10
Win:1 - Reach For The Rose (9/2)
Place:10 - Eighty West (12/1)
Show:6 - Williams Empire (15/1)
Other contenders:5 - Under Who'S Radar (5/1), 3 - Complex Music (30/1), 2 - Pharoah'S Dynasty (4/1), 9 - Chasing Liberty (20/1)
 
Race 11
Win:7 - Padiddle (9/2)
Place:3 - The Dover Specter (20/1)
Show:4 - Come To Papa (6/1)
Other contenders:6 - Get Ahead Now (12/1), 2 - San Martin (8/1), 5 - Cloudy Holiday (10/1), 1 - Acting Debut (8/1), 9 - Telescopic (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 8, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 5, Overall Pace: 40, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 3, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Kentucky Downs September 1, 2024 - Algorithm 3

 
Race 1
Win:1 - Mean Eileen (3/1)
Place:9 - Make A Million (4/1)
Show:7 - Blue Dazzler (8/1)
Other contenders:6 - Tiger Division (6/1), 3 - Stubby (9/2), 5 - Lady Spun Sugar (30/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Mor Luck (15/1)
Place:2 - Risuko (8/1)
Show:3 - Hi Barbie (5/1)
Other contenders:4 - Necessity (8/1), 5 - Everybreathyoutake (9/2), 6 - Pure Breeze (12/1), 7 - Good Reason (20/1), 8 - Bembridge Ledge (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win:5 - Generous Lover (5/2)
Place:8 - Avenue Niel (6/5)
Show:1 - Maria'S Honor (20/1)
Other contenders:3 - Embrace Me (8/1), 7 - Mirari (7/2), 6 - I Had That One Too (30/1)
 
Race 4
Win:2 - Ambivalent (3/1)
Place:9 - Step Forward (6/1)
Show:7 - Otago (8/1)
Other contenders:8 - Dhabab (12/1), 1 - Statesboro (30/1), 3 - Judge Davis (7/2)
 
Race 5
Win:13 - Deer District (12/1)
Place:1 - El Kabong (10/1)
Show:15 - Oscar'S World (6/1)
Other contenders:9 - Ducale (15/1), 14 - Dominican Pioneer (3/1), 3 - Scoobie Quando (8/1), 2 - Gasoline (15/1), 12 - Fuerteventura (8/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Master Controller (20/1)
Place:2 - Lazlo (12/1)
Show:3 - Warlander (5/2)
Other contenders:4 - Shogun (7/2), 5 - Blue Chair Bay (5/1), 6 - Ethics (20/1), 7 - Flying Mohawk (8/1), 8 - English Law (12/1)
 
Race 7
Win:14 - Novara (4/1)
Place:11 - Stephanieswarrior (20/1)
Show:7 - I Am The Sauce (15/1)
Other contenders:9 - Miyako (9/2), 4 - Satin Blue (6/5), 10 - Yammy Yammy Bella (30/1), 6 - Shezthefactor (15/1), 13 - Day Dawning (6/1)
 
Race 8
Win:5 - Vesture (8/1)
Place:10 - Gorilla Trek (20/1)
Show:2 - Common Defense (7/2)
Other contenders:8 - British Isles (8/1), 1 - Dashman (12/1), 3 - Luna Tap (20/1), 6 - King D'Oro (6/1), 4 - Copper Missile (15/1)
 
Race 9
Win:2 - Siege Of Boston (6/1)
Place:12 - Recker Point (20/1)
Show:7 - Dataman (9/2)
Other contenders:9 - Funtastic Again (5/1), 11 - Webslinger (5/1), 8 - Money Supply (15/1), 6 - Smokin' T (6/1), 10 - Atone (12/1)
 
Race 10
Win:1 - Reach For The Rose (9/2)
Place:10 - Eighty West (12/1)
Show:6 - Williams Empire (15/1)
Other contenders:5 - Under Who'S Radar (5/1), 3 - Complex Music (30/1), 2 - Pharoah'S Dynasty (4/1), 9 - Chasing Liberty (20/1)
 
Race 11
Win:7 - Padiddle (9/2)
Place:3 - The Dover Specter (20/1)
Show:4 - Come To Papa (6/1)
Other contenders:6 - Get Ahead Now (12/1), 2 - San Martin (8/1), 5 - Cloudy Holiday (10/1), 1 - Acting Debut (8/1), 9 - Telescopic (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 15, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 55, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

Kentucky Downs September 1, 2024 - Entries Index

ACADEMYACTING DEBUTALWAYS ABOVEAMBIVALENTANTARES
AVENUE NIELAWOLAXTHELMBAL A KAZOOBEMBRIDGE LEDGE
BINT AL DANDYBLACK FORZABLACK POWDERBLACK WHITE N GOLDBLUE CHAIR BAY
BRIDLE A BUTTERFLYBRITISH ISLESCASH EQUITYCHASING LIBERTYCIRO DI MARZIO
COME TO PAPACOMMON DEFENSECOMPLEX MUSICCONSPIRACTHERAPISTCOPPER MISSILE
CRUSADER CONRADCULTURE WARDASHMANDATAMANDAY DAWNING
DHABABDOMINICAN PIONEERDOT MARIEDUCALEEIGHTY WEST
EL MATADOREMBRACE MEENGLISH LAWENNEREILLYESSAY
EVERYBREATHYOUTAKEFLYING MOHAWKFOREVER AGAINFRANZ JOSEFFUERTEVENTURA
GASOLINEGENEROUS LOVERGET AHEAD NOWGIANT STORMGLOBAL ALLURE
GOLIADGOOD REASONGORILLA TREKGRAY'S FABLEHAMILTON'S WAY
HOLY FOLEYHOMIEHUMBLEDI AM THE SAUCEI HAD THAT ONE TOO
IT'S JUST A GAMEJUDGE DAVISKING D'OROKINZIE QUEENLADY SPUN SUGAR
LAZLOLESLIE'S STARLUMBER LEGACYLUNA TAPMAKE A MILLION
MARCINKOWSKIMARIA'S HONORMASTER CONTROLLERMEAN EILEENMILVEN
MINNESOTA MUNNYMINNESOTA READYMIRANDA RIGHTSMIRARIMIYAKO
MOR LUCKMOTOR CITY MENACENECESSITYNOISES OFFNOVARA
ON THE CUFFONE FRONT WAROSCAR ECLIPSEOSCAR'S WORLDOTAGO
PHAROAH'S DYNASTYPIKE PLACEPURE BREEZEREACH FOR THE ROSERECKER POINT
RISUKOSAN MARTINSATIN BLUESCOOBIE QUANDOSHEZTHEFACTOR
SIEGE OF BOSTONSMART UNCLESMOKIN' TSMOOTH N SILKYSPRINT OUT PASS
STEP FORWARDSTEPHANIESWARRIORSTUBBYSUMMER AFFAIRSWORE
THE DOVER SPECTERTHE HIDDEN CHAMBERTHE JACKALTIGER DIVISIONTKAC
UNDER WHO'S RADARVESTUREWARLANDERWEBSLINGERWEST COAST CRUISER
WILLIAMS EMPIREWINE COLLECTORYAMMY YAMMY BELLAYES THIS TIMEZEVON