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Pick Pony | Aug. 26, 2024, 3:06 p.m.
Pretty good works on 7/2 for Doublediamond Deal and his speed numbers are trending upward slightly. His early feet-per-second number is declining but is offset by rising mid- and late-fps calculations. All pace numbers, especially his E2 pace, are improving. But it’s his late stats that have us excited.
Normally, we would have cringed at 6 furlongs and downright cried if we saw him attempting 7 furlongs again. Post position 9 might not be to his liking too, but it looks like Donald Melancon has put him through some workouts to improve his stamina, including an 8/14 race we think was solely for conditioning. We believe Doublediamond Deal has what it takes to finish on the tote board and, in fact, bring home the win. A large overlay might make this the best bet of the day.
El Dinero’s speed is trending upward and is expected to improve again in this race. His works peaked just in time, and his FPS figures, especially late feet-per-second calculations, are rising too. We expect a good run from him. Rain or shine, he’ll finish on the board. His 7:2 morning odds, however, are not attractive.
Mangum’s works have peaked just in time for this stakes race, which is reasonable given his three-month layoff. His last works was little more than a lonely jog down the stretch. However, no other horse in this race is seeing such a rapid decline in speed or feet-per-second calculations as this four-year-old gelding. His late pace has been slowing, which makes us suspect something was amiss for this sustainer. AI thinks it will improve in this race before continuing its downward trend.
Mangum has the fastest average speed, just ahead of Available Star and Not On Herb, and has also clocked the best speed rating of anyone. All this suggests the time off was needed for recovery. But has he recovered enough to make the tote board? We think so. A return to form should let him finish 2 or 3, and a nice overlay may make it worthwhile to bet accordingly. However, watch for rain. If it gets sloppy out there, toss Mangum, and don’t look back.
It’s been almost two months since Not ON Herb’s last race but his works probably peaked just in time for this race. That’s a good sign because his speed has been trending up sharply and AI expects another spike upward in this race. His early- and mid-FPS calculations are declining, but his late-FPS is improving.
No wonder Not On Herb will enter the race as the favorite. He has three wins in a row, including two on a sloppy surface (an important consideration given the 39% chance of rain at race time). If the track gets sloppy, Not On Herb will take the win. If not, he’ll still finish on the tote board. 5:2 morning odds are making an overlay look unlikely though.
There is no doubt Courtney Dandridge has Clear As A Bele adequately prepped for this event. His speed is improving with each race and his FPS numbers are holding steady. 9:2 odds though. Yuck. Plus if it rains, he folds.
Pickens’s works have been nothing to write home about, which is not uncommon for this seven-year-old gelding. His speed improved in his last race but is still far below his prime-time numbers. His FPS figures and all pace ratings have been declining for quite some time, too. On a good day, he could win this. But there’s no reason to think this race will be particularly kind to Pickens. His 12/1 morning odds are well deserved.
Stong works after a particularly easy one, which hopefully has Myglorybee prepared after a three-month layoff. His speed is trending up sharper than anyone in this race, but his feet-per-second trends are all over the place. Early FPS has been on a decline, while late FPS has been improving. Mid-FPS is holding steady with little change. All of his pace numbers have been improving, especially E2 pace, which is rocketing up.
Still, we think Myglorybee is outclassed in this race. A middle-of-the-pack finish is most likely.