Louisiana Downs July 4, 2024 - Analysis, picks, and predictions for all races (including the Yellow Hammer Stakes)

Pick Pony | July 3, 2024, 3:47 p.m.

About Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs Casion and Racetrack in Bossier City, Louisiana

Louisiana Downs Casino & Racetrack is a horse racing track and racino located in Bossier City, northwestern Louisiana. It opened in 1974 and features over 800 slot machines. The track includes a 1-mile dirt track and a 0.875-mile turf course.

Built by shopping center developer Edward J. DeBartolo Sr. from Cleveland, Ohio, Louisiana Downs was the third race track he developed, following Thistledown in North Randall, Ohio, and Remington Park in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. DeBartolo was a longtime supporter of horse racing.

In its first year, more than 300,000 visitors wagered over $23 million. By 1983, 1.3 million fans wagered $224 million during the 125-day racing season.

Harrah's Entertainment, later known as Caesars Entertainment, purchased the track in 2002. In October 2017, ownership was transferred to Vici Properties as part of a corporate spin-off, with the property leased back to Caesars.

In September 2020, Caesars Entertainment and Vici Properties announced the sale of Harrah’s Louisiana Downs to Rubico Acquisition Corp. for $22 million, with the deal expected to close by the end of the year or early 2021.

In November 2021, the sale to Rubico Acquisition Corp. was completed, and the property was rebranded as Louisiana Downs Casino & Racetrack, dropping the Harrah's name.

Louisiana Downs entries, picks, and predictions for July 4, 2024

Race 1

Win: Kitiara
Place: Vallejo 
Show: Calabrian Queen

Race 2

Win: Frenetic Day
Place: Country Cat Jake
Show: My Story
Other entries to consider: Seeking A Soldier

Race 3

Win: Winmor Wendy
Place: Taysom
Show: Perfect Strike
Other entries to consider: All Saints

Race 4 Yellow Hammer Stakes

Win: Kellys The Boss
Place: Uncle Brad
Show: Bobby Jr.
Other entries to consider: Dromas

Kellys The Boss

Kellys The Boss can't finish - or can she? She has the speed (second highest in this race), a good early pace, and a stellar late pace. But this six-year-old just hasn't been winning lately. So why do we pick her to win this one? She's already proven she can beat a third of the field. Dromas, Unaffiliated, and Heza Royal Cat have all experienced her wrath. And Shane Wilson, who has two entries in this race, is ensuring her speed is trending up, ready to peak. He has lengthened her time off and lessened the intensity of her works, improving her early pace. Her inside post could give us a wire-to-wire or something close to that effect. There could be an overlay, too.

Uncle Brad

Uncle Brad is the speed in this group, easily outranking the others in average speed, speed last race, speed at this distance, and speed on dirt. So why can’t Uncle Brad win a race?

This five-year-old gelding shouldn’t be showing his age this early. Still, his speed numbers are trending down and his works are getting weaker. Shane Wilson (this is the second horse he has in this race) may have found the key with increased rest time between races. This (or possibly a unmentioned injury) would also account for the lax works as of late.

Uncle Brad’s feet-per-second looked dire when suddenly, it began to climb and if it continues to trend like it has, he may peak with this race. That would make him difficult to beat. This observation is enhanced when we notice he’s been finishing higher and higher, even as the class level of the competition grown stronger. The 6:1 odds may hint that the public has yet to notice this unusual datapoint. In the past three races, the level of competition he’s face has grown stronger while his finishing position has improved. For this reason, we think Uncle Brad could surprise everyone and finish in the money, likely in a Place position. Watch for what we expect to be a wonderful overlay.

Bobby Jr.

Bobby Jr has already proven he can beat Kellys The Boss (three times), Unaffiliated (twice), and Dromas. His speed has been on an upward slope too. History could repeat itself and Bobby Jr take the win but AI is suggesting his cycle dictates a lesser performance in this race. Thus, we put him in the money, but just barely. The overlay could make this an attractive bet.

Dromas

Dromas is the other speedster in this race (behind Uncle Brad and Kellys The Boss) and with significant early speed, this three-year-old colt could find himself in a three-way sprint for the lead alongside Uncle Brad and Kellys The Boss. Inexperience with this situation is the primary reason we put him out of the money. Don’t count him out altogether though. We’d drop money on him if the odds were high enough (higher than 5:1) because he certainly has the potential to win this race.

Race 5

Win: Magna Tap
Place: Mansoura
Show: Sam's Promise
Other entries to consider: Go Brother Go

Race 6

Win: Inspector Penny
Place: Honduras Passion
Show: Keerigan's Touch
Other entries to consider: Tekana

Race 7

Win: Violent River
Place: Bad Decisions
Show: Maladjusted Misfit
Other entries to consider: Yes Jack

Race 8

Win: Choctaw Blessings
Place: Willamina
Show: Sheza Cat
Other entries to consider: Janis