Saratoga July 12, 2024 - Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | July 10, 2024, 3:09 p.m.

 

 
Race 1
Win:5 - Martingale
Place:3 - Reliable Lady
Show:2 - Chanteuse
Other contenders:1 - Lord I Wonder
 
Race 2
Win:7 - Dillinger
Place:4 - Giant'S Fire
Show:1 - Muazarah
Other contenders:5 - Stormquist
 
Race 3
Win:11 - Military Road
Place:9 - Prairie Dunes
Show:12 - Commander Of Truth
Other contenders:5 - Storm Ready, 6 - Tom Collins, 2 - Tiz Wicked Strong
 
Race 4
Win:6 - Yarrow
Place:4 - Twenty Six Black
Show:7 - Tunisian Spring
Other contenders:2 - Aleah Aleah, 8 - What'S Up Bro
 
Race 5
Win:7 - Chateau
Place:5 - Funny Joke
Show:2 - Ribbons And Medals
Other contenders:13 - Motorcade, 4 - Gangly, 9 - Cold As Hell
 
Race 6
Win:10 - Classic Time
Place:3 - Concrete Cruiser
Show:4 - Tapwrits Temper
Other contenders:8 - Strengthnguidance, 11 - America'S Honor, 13 - Brink
 
Race 7
Win:3 - Devil'S Cay
Place:7 - Mauritius
Show:15 - Gun Maestro
Other contenders:12 - Front Man, 13 - Just For Luck, 6 - Addicted To You, 5 - Palace View
 
Race 8
Win:4 - Striker Has Dial
Place:7 - Dazzling Move
Show:1 - Miss Justify
Other contenders:2 - Windy Walk, 5 - Lady Moscato
 
Race 9
Win:1 - Toupie
Place:8 - Baraye
Show:6 - Ever So Sweet
Other contenders:9 - Cloudwalker, 13 - Golden Degree, 12 - Do Gooder
 
Race 10
Win:8 - Adventurous Spirit
Place:1 - Torpedo Run
Show:13 - Always Be Smart
Other contenders:9 - Remember The Chief, 11 - Guile, 4 - Pujol

 

Race 8 notes

Striker Has Dial

Striker Has Dial looks strong in all areas. She’s clearly the fastest horse in the race and our only concern is the wonky works as of late (and maybe the lack of experience). We really don’t see any reason why she can’t take home the win.

Dazzling Move

On paper, Dazzling Move’s speed is merely average but take a closer look at her recent races. This filly has told use two things - (1) she doesn’t like turf and (2) she excels at routes. Enough so that Michale Trombetta has moved her straight to a major stakes race only two races away from breaking her maiden. Her works are strong and her stats are surging. We think there’s a legitmate chance she could take down Striker Has Dial for the win. Watch the overlay and bet accordingly.

Miss Justify

Miss Justify, Todd Pletcher’s second entry in this race, is another entrant that has successfully transitioned from sprints to routes. Her speed and turn time have improved significantly but are still glaringly lower than Striker Has Dial. In addition, there’s a chance she battles early with Lady Moscato and Dazzling Move, leaving Striker Has Dial to scoop up what’s left. For this reason, we’re putting her in the money, just not atop the podium.

Windy Walk

Windy Walk has not lost a race since she moved to route distances. What impresses us even more, is how much her speed, feet-per-second, and pace have surged. She’s probably the most improved horse in this race. If she continues to improve, she could make the tote board with a huge overlay.

Lady Moscato

Lady Moscato could come in with a large overlay which is surprising since AI is putting her on the tote board. The high placement was likely due to her improving pace numbers. Her finishes however, do not impress us. We’re putting her slightly out of the money.