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Pick Pony | Oct. 29, 2024, 12:39 p.m.
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TThe weekend racing enthusiasts eagerly anticipate the commencement of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup, which will attract the most esteemed horses from across the nation and beyond to Del Mar. The festivities will commence on Future Stars Friday, November 1st, featuring five races for two-year-olds: the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, the John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and the two most prominent two-year-old races of the year, the NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance.
Both USA Network and FanDuel TV will provide comprehensive coverage of the inaugural day of this year’s Breeders’ Cup. USA Network’s broadcast will commence from 4:00-8:00 p.m. Eastern Time (ET) / 1:00-5:00 p.m. Pacific Time (PT), encompassing two undercard races and the initial four Breeders’ Cup races. FanDuel TV’s coverage will commence at 2:00 p.m. ET / 11:00 a.m. PT, with the commencement of the first undercard race. Concurrent streaming of all Breeders’ Cup races on Friday, along with the two preceding undercard races, will be available on Peacock.
Let us delve into some pertinent details regarding the Future Stars Friday Breeders’ Cup races.
Distance: Five furlongs on turf
Post time: 5:45 p.m. ET
Wagering Menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, daily double, pick 3, pick 5, all-turf $3 pick 3
Background: The latest Breeders’ Cup race will be contested for its seventh time in 2024. Trainer Michael Appleby emerged victorious in this race last year, guiding the Irish invader Big Evs to multiple stakes wins. This marked the second consecutive European triumph for trainer Charlie Appleby, who claimed victory in 2022 with Mischief Magic. Trainer Wesley Ward has secured three of the preceding six runnings of this race but currently lacks a formidable contender for 2024.
Favorites: Michael Appleby aims to secure his second consecutive victory with Big Mojo, which exits the second position in the same Irish prep race that was won by Big Evs last year. The horse that emerged victorious in that race, Aesterius, also poses a significant challenge. Turf sprint master trainer George Weaver saddles arguably the most formidable U.S.-based challenger, Governor Sam, a three-time stakes winner.
The main body of the field comprises twelve horses, with two additional horses on the also-eligible list. Ecoro Sieg (7-2), a Japanese-bred horse, has drawn well in post 8, providing him with opportunities to establish a favorable position on the front end of the race. Governor Sam (12-1), another prominent speed horse, has drawn farther outside and will need to exert significant effort to overtake Ecoro Sieg.
Interesting storylines: In the past two years, European invaders have dominated the exacta in this race. In the sole previous running of this race at Del Mar in 2021, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. piloted the filly Twilight Gleaming to victory ($12.40 to win) against a field of 12 horses.
Distance: 1 1/16 miles on dirt
Post Time: 6:25 p.m. ET
Wagering menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, daily double, pick 3, pick 4, special Juvenile Fillies (Friday) – Distaff (Saturday) daily double
Background: One of the original seven Breeders’ Cup races, along with the Juvenile, has been a consistent fixture of the Breeders’ Cup since its inception in 1984. The victor of this race is typically recognized as the Eclipse Award champion two-year-old filly, a tradition that has held true for all ten winners since Just F Y I in 2023.
Favorites: The likely favorite for the 2024 Juvenile Fillies is one of the three winners of the pivotal final preparatory races for the Juvenile Fillies. This triumvirate comprises Scottish Lassie, who emerged victorious in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park, Immersive, who claimed the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland, and Non Compliant, who secured the Oak Leaf Stakes Presented by Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) attracted the co-smallest Breeders’ Cup field, comprising only ten entrants. The reigning G1 winner, Runaway Frizette (G1), ranked tenth and was assigned the far outside post. However, this position should not pose a significant challenge in this relatively small field. Two-time Grade 1 winner, Immersive (G1), ranked third and possesses the potential to gain ground from post 3. Conversely, Japanese challenger, American Bikini (G1), is expected to exhibit speed from post 9.
Interesting storylines: This race has historically been unfavorable to chalk, with only three favorites emerging victorious in the past thirteen years: Echo Zulu in 2021, Songbird in 2015, and My Miss Aurelia in 2011. Last year’s favorite, Tamara, placed seventh in a twelve-horse field, while the 2022 favorite, Chop Chop, concluded in last position.
Distance: One mile on turf
Post Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Wagering menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, daily double, pick 3
Background: Contrary to expectations, the Juvenile Fillies Turf, established in 2008 and spanning its 16-year history, has been predominantly dominated by fillies originating from the United States. Notably, Meditate, which emerged victorious in this race under the guidance of trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore in 2022, joins a select group of European invaders, including Flotilla in 2012 and Chriselliam in 2013.
Favorites: One of the reasons European horses frequently fail to perform well in the Breeders’ Cup is that they occasionally do not send their most promising two-year-old fillies to the event. However, this is not anticipated to be the case this year due to the exceptional performance of O’Brien’s Lake Victoria. The filly has commenced her career with remarkable success, securing four victories in four starts, including two Group 1 triumphs. Lake Victoria leads a trio of formidable fillies trained by O’Brien, which also includes Heavens Gate and Bubbling. If North American runners maintain their current form, it could be attributed to Thought Process, which emerged victorious in Santa Anita Park’s Surfer Girl Stakes.
In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), an overflow field of 17 horses entered, with only 14 eligible to start. The favored #1 Lake Victoria (8-5), the Moyglare Stud (G1) and Cheveley Park (G1) winner from Ireland, faces the challenge of avoiding congestion from the first post. #7 Thought Process (5-2) offers more flexibility in its strategy, while the gate-to-wire Surfer Girl (G3) winner has the potential to establish a forward position from post 7.
Interesting storylines: Trainer Chad Brown has been the dominant force in this race’s history, having secured six victories in the sixteen previous runnings, including last year’s winner, Hard to Justify. Brown’s past triumphs include Newspaperofrecord (2018), Rushing Fall (2017), New Money Honey (2016), Lady Eli (2014), and Maram (2008). This year, Brown’s aspirations will be contingent upon the runner-up from the Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes, Virgin Colada.
Post Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Wagering menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, daily double, special Juvenile (Friday) – Classic (Saturday) double
Background: Arguably the featured race on Future Stars Friday, the Juvenile has been one of the Breeders’ Cup’s most prestigious events since its inception in 1984. This race showcases the most exceptional and precocious two-year-old colts and geldings, serving as a platform for the unofficial identification of potential contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve the following year. Historically, the majority of Juvenile winners, such as Fierceness in 2023, Forte in 2022, Corniche in 2021, and Essential Quality in 2020, have subsequently been recognized as the Eclipse Award champion two-year-old.
Favorites: The top challengers will include East Avenue, the winner of Keeneland’s Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, and Chancer McPatrick, the back-to-back Grade 1 winner of both the Hopeful Stakes and Champagne Stakes. Trainer Bob Baffert will also send out two top contenders with his American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse winner Citizen Bull and his Del Mar Futurity winner Gaming, who are likely to be among the favorites.
The Kentucky Derby qualification points are up for grabs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), which, like the Juvenile Fillies, attracted 10 entries. The Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner, #1 East Avenue (5-2), has emerged victorious in his first two starts and must break alertly from post 1 to avoid being overwhelmed by traffic, particularly with the speedy Best Pal (G3) winner, #2 Getaway Car (20-1), directly on his outside. Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner, #7 Gaming (8-1), and American Pharoah (G1) conqueror, #6 Citizen Bull (10-1), have drawn more favorable positions, while stretch-running Champagne (G1) hero, #10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1), should not be deterred by the far outside post.
Interesting storylines: The Juvenile has not been a good predictor of Kentucky Derby winners. Only two winners in the history of this race won the Derby the following year, Street Sense in 2006 and Nyquist in 2015. Will the 2024 Juvenile produce some of the principal contenders for the 2024 Triple Crown? Let’s see. Optimistic fans can point to the 2022 Juvenile where the third- and fourth-place finishers, National Treasure and Blazing Sevens, missed the Derby but did come back to run 1-2 in the 2023 Preakness Stakes. 2020 was another good year for the Juvenile which produced several future stars including the winner Essential Quality, plus Hot Rod Charlie, Jackie’s Warrior, and Rombauer. On the flip side, the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile failed to yield one single starter in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Fierceness, the winner of the 2023 Juvenile, was the only horse in the race to make it to this year’s Kentucky Derby, where he finished 15th. Thankfully for his fans he later made up for it when he won the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes this summer at Saratoga, and he’s now a leading contender for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 2.
Distance: One mile on the turf
Post Time: 8:25 p.m. ET
Wagering menu: Win/place/show, exacta, trifecta, superfecta, super hi-5, special Juvenile Turf (Friday) – Turf (Saturday) daily double
Background: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf was inaugural in 2007, preceding the Juvenile Fillies Turf by one year. In contrast to its filly counterpart on the Breeders’ Cup card, Europeans have historically performed exceptionally well in this race, securing victories in 12 of the first 17 editions. This dominance was evident in 2023, when Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore connections achieved a 1-2 finish with Unquestionable and Mountain Bear. In the 2022 Juvenile Turf, the pattern continued as Victoria Road, representing Coolmore, emerged victorious against Silver Knott, representing Godolphin, by a narrow margin in a thrilling contest. Notably, the last American triumph in the Juvenile Turf occurred in 2020 when Fire at Will orchestrated an upset for Mike Maker. However, even in that year, Europeans managed to secure second, fourth, and fifth place finishes.
Favorites: This year’s Juvenile Turf favorites could end up being the 1-2 finishers coming out of the Grade 1 bet365 Summer Stakes at Woodbine – winner New Century and runner-up Al Qudra. Both are European imports who already have the benefit of that prior North American outing under their belts.
The Breeders’ Cup Friday action concludes with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). If Summer (G1) winner #11 New Century (5-2), Vintage (G2) hero #12 Aomori City (10-1), or Futurity (G2) winner #13 Henri Matisse (6-1) are to emerge victorious, they will require double-digit odds. Summer runner-up #4 Al Qudra (4-1) drew a more favorable position in post 4, while two-time graded stakes winner #5 Zulu Kingdom (8-1) possesses ample opportunity to gain ground from post 5.
Interesting storylines: In 2023, O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore successfully collaborated to secure six victories in seventeen Juvenile Turf races. Consequently, the horse they choose to mount in 2024 is widely regarded as the potential challenger. Mentee, a mentee of trainer Todd Pletcher, emerged victorious in the Grade 3 Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park in his most recent start. Mentee is the full sibling of 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Fierceness, who achieved his Breeders’ Cup triumph under Pletcher’s guidance on the dirt. While Fierceness’s success was on the dirt, Mentee aims to establish his own reputation on the grass.