Keeneland April 11, 2025 - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | April 9, 2025, 2:14 p.m.

AI Algorithm Picks

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Algorithm 1 (Stronger influence on pace, track bias, trainer)

 
Race 1
Win:2 - King Of Kentucky (3/1)
Place:6 - Busk (7/2)
Show:5 - Lucky Shot (2/1)
Other contenders:1 - Twirling Roses (4/1), 4 - Major Wager (8/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Satisfied Mind (7/2)
Place:2 - Celestial Harmony (15/1)
Show:3 - Essentially Gold (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Cheekwood (8/1), 5 - Folk Song (10/1), 6 - Sweet Espresso (30/1), 7 - Gorrono Ranch (2/1)
 
Race 3
Win:6 - Ransomware (20/1)
Place:7 - Nikolaou (8/1)
Show:2 - Love Me Not (4/1)
Other contenders:3 - Business Model (5/2), 5 - Sant' Antimo (20/1), 9 - Liam The Brave (10/1)
 
Race 4
Win:9 - Brooklyn Can Dance (6/1)
Place:6 - Starcourt (20/1)
Show:5 - Pat'Schromecompass (15/1)
Other contenders:1 - Tennesseehoneybee (20/1), 15 - Smart With Heart (15/1), 13 - Lotta Lissa (20/1), 3 - Mustang Lady (7/2), 14 - Divine (2/1)
 
Race 5
Win:10 - Grade A (15/1)
Place:4 - Hear The Queen (7/2)
Show:14 - Miss Lonelle (30/1)
Other contenders:1 - Ramsey Pond (4/1), 2 - Exclusive Star (12/1), 12 - Aterradora (12/1), 5 - Play With Fire (9/2), 3 - Presha (6/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Beach Queen (15/1)
Place:2 - Evermore (12/1)
Show:3 - Mink Stole (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - Churning Berni (5/2), 5 - Hope Restored (8/1), 6 - Fitting (9/2)
 
Race 7
Win:13 - Lovely Emma (8/1)
Place:8 - Afternoon Diva (20/1)
Show:4 - Abientot (9/2)
Other contenders:6 - Shisospicy (4/1), 12 - Kilwin (8/1), 11 - Me Governor (6/1), 1 - My Lil Punky (20/1), 3 - Lookatmybuckle (50/1)
 
Race 8
Win:1 - Play With Magic (9/2)
Place:2 - Meursault (4/1)
Show:3 - Surprise (7/2)
Other contenders:4 - Overcome Adversity (8/1), 5 - Defiant Lass (12/1), 6 - Girls Rock (15/1)
 
Race 9
Win:7 - Silent Heart (8/1)
Place:9 - Seminole Chief (20/1)
Show:5 - Santorini (30/1)
Other contenders:6 - Carl Spackler (9/5), 2 - Funtastic Again (6/1), 8 - Northern Invader (4/1)
 
Race 10
Win:12 - Tavern Time (10/1)
Place:8 - Whisky Reserve (30/1)
Show:15 - Citizen (10/1)
Other contenders:3 - Farm Team (10/1), 6 - High Five Sy (20/1), 4 - Diver (4/1), 1 - Abundance (5/1), 9 - Johnson (20/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 500, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

 

Algorithm 2 (Stronger influence on speed, overall pace, trainer, with moderate influence from proprietary AI)

 
Race 1
Win:2 - King Of Kentucky (3/1)
Place:6 - Busk (7/2)
Show:5 - Lucky Shot (2/1)
Other contenders:1 - Twirling Roses (4/1), 4 - Major Wager (8/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Satisfied Mind (7/2)
Place:2 - Celestial Harmony (15/1)
Show:3 - Essentially Gold (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Cheekwood (8/1), 5 - Folk Song (10/1), 6 - Sweet Espresso (30/1), 7 - Gorrono Ranch (2/1)
 
Race 3
Win:6 - Ransomware (20/1)
Place:7 - Nikolaou (8/1)
Show:2 - Love Me Not (4/1)
Other contenders:3 - Business Model (5/2), 5 - Sant' Antimo (20/1), 9 - Liam The Brave (10/1)
 
Race 4
Win:9 - Brooklyn Can Dance (6/1)
Place:6 - Starcourt (20/1)
Show:1 - Tennesseehoneybee (20/1)
Other contenders:5 - Pat'Schromecompass (15/1), 15 - Smart With Heart (15/1), 13 - Lotta Lissa (20/1), 14 - Divine (2/1), 3 - Mustang Lady (7/2)
 
Race 5
Win:10 - Grade A (15/1)
Place:4 - Hear The Queen (7/2)
Show:1 - Ramsey Pond (4/1)
Other contenders:14 - Miss Lonelle (30/1), 2 - Exclusive Star (12/1), 12 - Aterradora (12/1), 5 - Play With Fire (9/2), 3 - Presha (6/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Beach Queen (15/1)
Place:2 - Evermore (12/1)
Show:3 - Mink Stole (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - Churning Berni (5/2), 5 - Hope Restored (8/1), 6 - Fitting (9/2)
 
Race 7
Win:13 - Lovely Emma (8/1)
Place:6 - Shisospicy (4/1)
Show:4 - Abientot (9/2)
Other contenders:11 - Me Governor (6/1), 8 - Afternoon Diva (20/1), 12 - Kilwin (8/1), 1 - My Lil Punky (20/1), 3 - Lookatmybuckle (50/1)
 
Race 8
Win:1 - Play With Magic (9/2)
Place:2 - Meursault (4/1)
Show:3 - Surprise (7/2)
Other contenders:4 - Overcome Adversity (8/1), 5 - Defiant Lass (12/1), 6 - Girls Rock (15/1)
 
Race 9
Win:7 - Silent Heart (8/1)
Place:5 - Santorini (30/1)
Show:9 - Seminole Chief (20/1)
Other contenders:6 - Carl Spackler (9/5), 2 - Funtastic Again (6/1), 8 - Northern Invader (4/1)
 
Race 10
Win:12 - Tavern Time (10/1)
Place:15 - Citizen (10/1)
Show:8 - Whisky Reserve (30/1)
Other contenders:3 - Farm Team (10/1), 4 - Diver (4/1), 1 - Abundance (5/1), 6 - High Five Sy (20/1), 9 - Johnson (20/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 80, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 50,

 

 

Algorithm 3 (Stronger influence on proprietary AI and overall pace)

 
Race 1
Win:2 - King Of Kentucky (3/1)
Place:6 - Busk (7/2)
Show:5 - Lucky Shot (2/1)
Other contenders:1 - Twirling Roses (4/1), 4 - Major Wager (8/1)
 
Race 2
Win:1 - Satisfied Mind (7/2)
Place:2 - Celestial Harmony (15/1)
Show:3 - Essentially Gold (20/1)
Other contenders:4 - Cheekwood (8/1), 5 - Folk Song (10/1), 6 - Sweet Espresso (30/1), 7 - Gorrono Ranch (2/1)
 
Race 3
Win:2 - Love Me Not (4/1)
Place:6 - Ransomware (20/1)
Show:7 - Nikolaou (8/1)
Other contenders:3 - Business Model (5/2), 9 - Liam The Brave (10/1), 1 - Tiger Moon (3/1)
 
Race 4
Win:9 - Brooklyn Can Dance (6/1)
Place:1 - Tennesseehoneybee (20/1)
Show:5 - Pat'Schromecompass (15/1)
Other contenders:6 - Starcourt (20/1), 15 - Smart With Heart (15/1), 8 - Rare Ruby (4/1), 7 - Cervaro Della Sala (10/1), 13 - Lotta Lissa (20/1)
 
Race 5
Win:10 - Grade A (15/1)
Place:4 - Hear The Queen (7/2)
Show:14 - Miss Lonelle (30/1)
Other contenders:2 - Exclusive Star (12/1), 12 - Aterradora (12/1), 1 - Ramsey Pond (4/1), 5 - Play With Fire (9/2), 3 - Presha (6/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Beach Queen (15/1)
Place:2 - Evermore (12/1)
Show:3 - Mink Stole (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - Churning Berni (5/2), 5 - Hope Restored (8/1), 6 - Fitting (9/2)
 
Race 7
Win:13 - Lovely Emma (8/1)
Place:6 - Shisospicy (4/1)
Show:11 - Me Governor (6/1)
Other contenders:12 - Kilwin (8/1), 4 - Abientot (9/2), 8 - Afternoon Diva (20/1), 1 - My Lil Punky (20/1), 3 - Lookatmybuckle (50/1)
 
Race 8
Win:1 - Play With Magic (9/2)
Place:2 - Meursault (4/1)
Show:3 - Surprise (7/2)
Other contenders:4 - Overcome Adversity (8/1), 5 - Defiant Lass (12/1), 6 - Girls Rock (15/1)
 
Race 9
Win:7 - Silent Heart (8/1)
Place:9 - Seminole Chief (20/1)
Show:6 - Carl Spackler (9/5)
Other contenders:5 - Santorini (30/1), 2 - Funtastic Again (6/1), 8 - Northern Invader (4/1)
 
Race 10
Win:12 - Tavern Time (10/1)
Place:15 - Citizen (10/1)
Show:8 - Whisky Reserve (30/1)
Other contenders:3 - Farm Team (10/1), 4 - Diver (4/1), 1 - Abundance (5/1), 9 - Johnson (20/1), 10 - Freedom Maker (3/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 600,

 

 

Race Entries

ABIENTOTABUNDANCEAFTERNOON DIVAAL JAFARAANNELLE
BEACH QUEENBIRKIN GIRLBROOKLYN CAN DANCEBUSINESS MODELBUSK
CELESTIAL HARMONYCERVARO DELLA SALACHANDONCHEEKWOODCHURNING BERNI
CITIZENCUE COUNTRY ROADSDANCIN WITH ANGELSDEFIANT LASSDIVER
DREAMAWAYDROP THE HAMMEREMILY'S JOYESSENTIALLY GOLDEVERMORE
FARM TEAMFITTINGFOLK SONGFREEDOM MAKERFUNTASTIC AGAIN
GIRLS ROCKGO TOWNGORRONO RANCHGRADE AGRAND ASPEN
HELM PLACEHEY BERTIEHIGH FIVE SYHOPE RESTOREDI GOTTA BOLT
INTEGRATIONIT AIN'T TWOJOHNSONKILWINKING OF KENTUCKY
LEXGOLIAM THE BRAVELOOKATMYBUCKLELOTTA LISSALOVE ME NOT
LUCKY SHOTMAJOR WAGERME GOVERNORMERCY OTISMEURSAULT
MINK STOLEMINNESOTA MUNNYMISS LONELLEMONEY MEMOLOMUSTANG LADY
NIKOLAOUNORTHERN INVADEROVERCOME ADVERSITYPAPA YOPASTERO
PAT'SCHROMECOMPASSPATROLMANPLAY WITH FIREPLAY WITH MAGICPRESHA
RAMSEY PONDRANSOMWARERARE ARTRARE RUBYRED BERETTA
ROJAROMANAYASANT' ANTIMOSANTORINISATISFIED MIND
SEMINOLE CHIEFSERVING TIMESHE'S ALL CHARMSHISOSPICYSILENT HEART
SNOWYTESTARCOURTSTAY CLASSYSTIRRED UPSTORM CLOUD RISING
SWEET ESPRESSOSWEET ILLUSIONSTAMMY'S CRUISERTASK FORCETAVERN TIME
TIGER MOONTRIKARITWIRLING ROSESWHISKY RESERVE