Santa Anita January 4, 2025 - Thoroughbred Horse Racing Analysis, picks, and predictions

Pick Pony | Jan. 2, 2025, 9:15 p.m.

AI Algorithm Picks

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Algorithm 1 (Stronger influence on pace, track bias, trainer)

 
Race 1
Win:4 - Baldoro (8/5)
Place:5 - Hot Legs Romolo (7/2)
Show:8 - Dazzle The Command (12/1)
Other contenders:6 - Cupid'S Crusader (9/2), 1 - Tallis (8/1), 2 - Bear Hunt (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win:4 - Rank (3/1)
Place:2 - Cornhuskerchris (20/1)
Show:1 - Rodriguez (4/5)
Other contenders:5 - Baeza (6/1), 6 - The Last Straw (5/1)
 
Race 3
Win:3 - Petesoldfashioned (6/1)
Place:6 - Thrust (10/1)
Show:7 - Light The Beam (7/2)
Other contenders:5 - Be Punctual (5/2), 2 - Duran (2/1)
 
Race 4
Win:6 - Tirupati (3/1)
Place:4 - Velocious (15/1)
Show:9 - Strange Addiction (12/1)
Other contenders:1 - Annie'S Joy (5/2), 7 - Katerini (5/1), 8 - Free And Humble (30/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Mckinzie Street (10/1)
Place:5 - Bullard (4/5)
Show:3 - Romanesque (5/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Butterfly Beach (12/1)
Place:2 - Bebop Lady (15/1)
Show:3 - Orange Thunder (9/2)
Other contenders:4 - Maria Tallchief (8/1), 5 - Nepal (20/1), 6 - Tropical Rain Day (12/1), 7 - Saint Shelia (30/1)
 
Race 7
Win:4 - Mirahmadi (5/2)
Place:3 - New King (3/1)
Show:7 - Invigorated (8/1)
Other contenders:5 - Ghazaaly (20/1), 6 - Demotivate (20/1)
 
Race 8
Win:6 - Afternoon Nap (4/1)
Place:2 - Chick'S Dig It (20/1)
Show:9 - Blazing Peme (30/1)
Other contenders:13 - Jetovator (7/2), 14 - Kerry Gold (20/1), 1 - Double Jab (3/1), 5 - Chromeflash (12/1)
 
Race 9
Win:2 - Anywho (15/1)
Place:6 - Pleasant (3/5)
Show:4 - Pushiness (12/1)
Other contenders:5 - Don'T Bring Crazy (30/1), 7 - Irish Wahine (15/1)
 
Race 10
Win:6 - Mbagnick (30/1)
Place:11 - El Potente (3/1)
Show:8 - Eye On Ry (10/1)
Other contenders:5 - Call Me Harry (7/2), 7 - Escape Artist (12/1), 4 - Game Time (12/1), 10 - Irish Prophet (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 500, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 20,

 

 

Algorithm 2 (Stronger influence on speed, overall pace, trainer, with moderate influence from proprietary AI)

 
Race 1
Win:4 - Baldoro (8/5)
Place:5 - Hot Legs Romolo (7/2)
Show:6 - Cupid'S Crusader (9/2)
Other contenders:8 - Dazzle The Command (12/1), 1 - Tallis (8/1), 2 - Bear Hunt (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win:4 - Rank (3/1)
Place:2 - Cornhuskerchris (20/1)
Show:1 - Rodriguez (4/5)
Other contenders:5 - Baeza (6/1), 6 - The Last Straw (5/1)
 
Race 3
Win:3 - Petesoldfashioned (6/1)
Place:2 - Duran (2/1)
Show:7 - Light The Beam (7/2)
Other contenders:6 - Thrust (10/1), 5 - Be Punctual (5/2)
 
Race 4
Win:6 - Tirupati (3/1)
Place:9 - Strange Addiction (12/1)
Show:4 - Velocious (15/1)
Other contenders:1 - Annie'S Joy (5/2), 7 - Katerini (5/1), 8 - Free And Humble (30/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Mckinzie Street (10/1)
Place:5 - Bullard (4/5)
Show:3 - Romanesque (5/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Butterfly Beach (12/1)
Place:2 - Bebop Lady (15/1)
Show:3 - Orange Thunder (9/2)
Other contenders:4 - Maria Tallchief (8/1), 5 - Nepal (20/1), 6 - Tropical Rain Day (12/1), 7 - Saint Shelia (30/1)
 
Race 7
Win:4 - Mirahmadi (5/2)
Place:3 - New King (3/1)
Show:7 - Invigorated (8/1)
Other contenders:5 - Ghazaaly (20/1), 1 - Mici'S Express (30/1)
 
Race 8
Win:6 - Afternoon Nap (4/1)
Place:2 - Chick'S Dig It (20/1)
Show:14 - Kerry Gold (20/1)
Other contenders:13 - Jetovator (7/2), 9 - Blazing Peme (30/1), 1 - Double Jab (3/1), 5 - Chromeflash (12/1)
 
Race 9
Win:6 - Pleasant (3/5)
Place:2 - Anywho (15/1)
Show:4 - Pushiness (12/1)
Other contenders:5 - Don'T Bring Crazy (30/1), 7 - Irish Wahine (15/1)
 
Race 10
Win:11 - El Potente (3/1)
Place:6 - Mbagnick (30/1)
Show:8 - Eye On Ry (10/1)
Other contenders:5 - Call Me Harry (7/2), 7 - Escape Artist (12/1), 4 - Game Time (12/1), 10 - Irish Prophet (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 80, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 50,

 

 

Algorithm 3 (Stronger influence on proprietary AI and overall pace)

 
Race 1
Win:5 - Hot Legs Romolo (7/2)
Place:4 - Baldoro (8/5)
Show:8 - Dazzle The Command (12/1)
Other contenders:6 - Cupid'S Crusader (9/2), 1 - Tallis (8/1), 2 - Bear Hunt (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win:4 - Rank (3/1)
Place:2 - Cornhuskerchris (20/1)
Show:1 - Rodriguez (4/5)
Other contenders:5 - Baeza (6/1), 6 - The Last Straw (5/1)
 
Race 3
Win:3 - Petesoldfashioned (6/1)
Place:6 - Thrust (10/1)
Show:5 - Be Punctual (5/2)
Other contenders:2 - Duran (2/1), 7 - Light The Beam (7/2)
 
Race 4
Win:6 - Tirupati (3/1)
Place:9 - Strange Addiction (12/1)
Show:4 - Velocious (15/1)
Other contenders:1 - Annie'S Joy (5/2), 7 - Katerini (5/1), 8 - Free And Humble (30/1)
 
Race 5
Win:1 - Mckinzie Street (10/1)
Place:5 - Bullard (4/5)
Show:3 - Romanesque (5/1)
 
Race 6
Win:1 - Butterfly Beach (12/1)
Place:2 - Bebop Lady (15/1)
Show:3 - Orange Thunder (9/2)
Other contenders:4 - Maria Tallchief (8/1), 5 - Nepal (20/1), 6 - Tropical Rain Day (12/1), 7 - Saint Shelia (30/1)
 
Race 7
Win:4 - Mirahmadi (5/2)
Place:3 - New King (3/1)
Show:7 - Invigorated (8/1)
Other contenders:5 - Ghazaaly (20/1), 1 - Mici'S Express (30/1)
 
Race 8
Win:8 - Piper'S Causeway (5/1)
Place:6 - Afternoon Nap (4/1)
Show:2 - Chick'S Dig It (20/1)
Other contenders:13 - Jetovator (7/2), 1 - Double Jab (3/1), 9 - Blazing Peme (30/1), 14 - Kerry Gold (20/1)
 
Race 9
Win:4 - Pushiness (12/1)
Place:2 - Anywho (15/1)
Show:6 - Pleasant (3/5)
Other contenders:7 - Irish Wahine (15/1), 5 - Don'T Bring Crazy (30/1)
 
Race 10
Win:6 - Mbagnick (30/1)
Place:8 - Eye On Ry (10/1)
Show:5 - Call Me Harry (7/2)
Other contenders:11 - El Potente (3/1), 7 - Escape Artist (12/1), 10 - Irish Prophet (10/1), 4 - Game Time (12/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 600,

 

 

Race Entries

AFTERNOON NAPANDREADYTORUMBLEANNIE'S JOYANYWHOBAEZA
BARNESBE PUNCTUALBEAR HUNTBEBOP LADYBLAZING PEME
BUTTERFLY BEACHCALL ME HARRYCALM SEACAMERON SLOUGHCHICK'S DIG IT
CO HEARTCORNHUSKERCHRISCUPID'S CRUSADERDAZZLE THE COMMANDDEMOTIVATE
DON'T BRING CRAZYDOUBLE JABDURANEAGLES FLIGHTEL POTENTE
EYE ON RYFEARLESS SOLDIERFOREST DAZZLEFREE AND HUMBLEGAME TIME
GO CAMI OHGOING VIRALHAVOCHOT LEGS ROMOLOINVIGORATED
IRISH WAHINEJETOVATORKAPALUA RIDEKATERINIKERRY GOLD
LAST CALL LONDONLIGHT THE BEAMLIVING LIFEMALTESE FALCONMARIA TALLCHIEF
MCKINZIE STREETMICI'S EXPRESSMIRAHMADIMISO PHANSYNEPAL
OOBUBBAKAKAYOORANGE THUNDERPETESOLDFASHIONEDPIPER'S CAUSEWAYPLEASANT
PUSHINESSRANKREFOCUSRICHIRODRIGUEZ
SAINT SHELIASARWARSIENNOISSIPPIN WHISKEYSMOOTH CRUISEIN
STRAIGHT LUCKSTRANGE ADDICTIONTALLISTAPATIA LEAHTHE LAST STRAW
TIRUPATITROPICAL RAIN DAYUNCLE JOHNVELOCIOUSWINE ON TAP

 Race news

BULLARD AND BARNES SET FOR 7-FURLONG CLASH IN SATURDAY’S GRADE II, SAN VICENTE STAKES FOR 3-YEAR-OLDS AT SANTA ANITA

ARCADIA, CA (Dec. 30, 2024)—Bullard and Barnes, a pair of highly promising colts with Kentucky Derby aspirations, will square-off for the first time in Saturday’s Grade II, $200,000 San Vicente Stakes for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs at Santa Anita.

The San Vicente is the first local stop on the road to the GI Santa Anita Derby on April 5 and potentially the 151st Kentucky Derby four weeks later at Churchill Downs.

Bullard comes in with a perfect 2-for-2 record for trainer Mike McCarthy. By Gun Runner, Bullard won his debut going six furlongs at Del Mar in September, then came back to romp by 4 ¾ lengths in the GIII Bob Hope going seven furlongs on Nov. 17 at Del Mar.

Owned in partnership by St. Elias Stable, Talla Racing LLC, Three Chimneys Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds, Bullard sold for $675,000 as a yearling at the 2023 Keeneland September sale. Jockey Umberto Rispoli, who rode Bullard in both previous starts, retains the mount in the San Vicente.

Bullard has worked four times since the Bob Hope, all at Santa Anita. On Saturday, he drilled five furlongs in 1:00.80.

Barnes will be making his stakes debut for trainer Bob Baffert and owner Zedan Racing. As a yearling, the son of Into Mischief commanded $3.2 million at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale.

Barnes last month shipped to Churchill Downs for his debut and promptly won by a head going 5 ½ furlongs on Nov. 27. The runner-up that day, Innovator for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, has since broke his maiden and finished second in the Advent Stakes, both at Oaklawn Park.

Barnes has worked at Santa Anita four times since his debut. Last weekend, he fired a bullet when working six furlongs from the gate in 1:12.80. Then on Sunday, he drilled four furlongs in 48.80 seconds. Barnes will be ridden by Juan Hernandez for the first time in the San Vicente.

Among those set to take on Bullard and Barnes is McKinzie Street, who has twice been Grade I-placed for trainer Tim Yakteen. By McKinzie, McKinzie Street most recently finished 7/12 lengths behind Bullard when third in the Bob Hope. Prior to that effort he was third in the GI American Pharoah going 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita and second in the GI Del Mar Futurity going seven furlongs in September.

McKinzie Street will have a new rider in the San Vicente. After having Kazushi Kimura for all four previous starts, Antonio Fresu takes over in the irons. McKinzie Street is 4: 1-1-2 with $153,000 in earnings for owners Leslie A. Amestoy, Jean Pierre Amestoy Jr. and Roger K. Beasley.

Baffert also entered Romanesque, who was a sharp debut winner going 6 ½ furlongs at Del Mar Nov. 23. That day he dueled on the lead and kicked clear in the stretch to win by 2 ¼ lengths under Hernandez. He will have Hall of Famer Mike Smith in the irons Saturday.

Romanesque, a son of Practical Joke, sold for $435,000 at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale. He is owned by an extensive partnership that includes SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and Stonestreet Stables.

Smooth Cruisein also steps up to the stakes ranks following a debut maiden win. Trained by Karen Keadley, Smooth Cruisein on Oct. 27 came from off the pace to score by a half-length going six furlongs at Santa Anita. The colt by Girvin, who was a $41,000 auction purchase earlier this year, is owned by Matson Racing, Sandra L. Brown, Elise Naify and Marsha Naify. He will be ridden by Ricky Gonzalez, who was also aboard for his maiden win.

THE GII SAN VICENTE WITH JOCKEYS & WEIGHTS IN POST POSITION ORDER

Race 5 of 10 Approximate post time 1:30 p.m. PT

1. McKinzie Street – Antonio Fresu - 120

2. Barnes – Juan Hernandez – 120

3. Romanesque – Mike Smith – 120

4. Smooth Cruisein – Ricardo Gonzalez – 120

5. Bullard – Umberto Rispoli - 124

First post time for a 10 race card is 11:30 a.m. For more information please visit santaanita.com.

PLEASANT, 3RD IN THE BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT, LOOMS A MAJOR THREAT IN SATURDAY’S GRADE III, $100,000 LAS FLORES STAKES GOING 6 FURLONGS AT SANTA ANITA

ARCADIA, CA (Dec. 30, 2024)—Juddmonte Farms’ homebred Pleasant figures as a major player in the Grade III, $100,000 Las Flores Stakes Saturday at Santa Anita following a third-place finish in last month’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Pleasant was making her second start following a 13-month layoff when beaten just a half-length in the seven-furlong Filly & Mare Sprint That day she attended the pace throughout, had the lead inside the final furlongs and was just edged by winner Soul of an Angel and runner-up Society.

The Breeders’ Cup was Pleasant’s first start in a stakes race. When returning from her lengthy layoff in September, Pleasant rolled to a five-length allowance win at Los Alamitos. By Munnings, Pleasant is 5: 3-1-1 with $219,000 in earnings. Jockey Juan Hernandez, who has ridden Pleasant in all five previous starts, retains the mount.

Pushiness, a multiple stakes winner versus California-breds, returns to the graded ranks for trainer Michael McCarthy and owner Mike Repole. Most recently, Pushiness set the pace before fading to third in the seven-furlong Betty Grable Stakes for statebreds Nov. 10 at Del Mar. She is a perfect 2-for-2 at Santa Anita, with an allowance win going six furlongs in October prior to the Betty Grable.

By Kantharos, Pushiness is 8: 4-1-2 with $272,046 in earnings. She will have regular rider Umberto Rispoli in the irons.

Richi is a second entrant for Baffert. Imported from her native Chile, where she was a Group I winner, Richi made her U.S. debut in the six-furlong Desert Stormer at Santa Anita in June and finished second behind graded stakes winner Chismosa.

Richi has been working steadily since late October for her second domestic start. She will be ridden by Kazushi Kimura for the first time. By Practical Joke, Richi has an overall record of 10: 6-3-0 with $118,424 in earnings. She is owned by Hill ‘n’ Dale equine Holdings and Stud Vendaval inc.

THE GIII LAS FLORES WITH JOCKEYS & WEIGHTS IN POST POSITION ORDER

Race 9 of 10 Approximate post time 3:30 p.m. PT

1. Wine On Tap – Mike Smith – 120

2. Anywho – Hector Berrios – 120

3. Richi – Kazushi Kimura – 124

4. Pushiness – Umberto Rispoli – 122

5. Don’t Bring Crazy – Antonio Fresu – 122

6. Pleasant – Juan Hernandez – 120

7. Irish Wahine – Kyle Frey - 120

First post time for a 10 race card is 11:30 a.m. For more information please visit santaanita.com.